Hobgood Coffey or Matusz

[hoosiers]

For $3.5M, would you prefer to two elite HS pitchers or an elite college pitcher?

One might lean to Matusz because we know how fast he's already moved and how dominant he has pitched, but conceptually I think spreading the risk to two high quality HS pitchers (albeit one with TJ surgery behind him - could be a plus or minus depending on how you look at it).

If Coffey comes all the way back to where he was earlier in 2009, I think I would be a lean to the two HSers.

[crawdad]

For $3.5M, would you prefer to two elite HS pitchers or an elite college pitcher?

One might lean to Matusz because we know how fast he's already moved and how dominant he has pitched, but conceptually I think spreading the risk to two high quality HS pitchers (albeit one with TJ surgery behind him - could be a plus or minus depending on how you look at it).

If Coffey comes all the way back to where he was earlier in 2009, I think I would be a lean to the two HSers.

Well, regarding Hobgood and Coffey vs Matusz. A college pitcher of Matusz' standing typically has about a 70% shot of making the majors or a 30% fail rate. A consensus mid 1st round high school arm + a consensus late first round or supplemental arm would have a success rate of 63% that one of them makes the majors or a 37% fail rate.

If one wants the pitcher to be at least average then you have a 91% fail rate for the college arm and a 96% fail rate that neither of the high schoolers develop.

Now, these are generic percentages and have issues with different talent evaluation philosophies.

Also, the probability that both high schoolers make it, 4% and <1%, may out weigh the benefit on the other hand.

Again, these are generic percentages. Jordan's group is probably above average in evaluating players, so his percentages probably slightly exceed these.

[QBsILLEST1]

I am torn honestly between the 2 choices. The 2 HS kids you are mentioning have a higher ceiling, but Matusz was way closer to ready. Like I said Im torn, so I cannot give a definate answer....

[LookinUp]

I'd take one Matusz over two highly-rated high school arms just about any day. Now, if the arms were Porcello and Matzek, I'd take them...but they're higher rated than our two guys.

[waroriole]

I think the more appropriate question should be Hobgood and Coffey or Matzek.

[crawdad]

I think the more appropriate question should be Hobgood and Coffey or Matzek.

Well, more so would be Hobgood + Coffey + 3MM in other signings vs. Matzek.