Hardball Times on Pitch Sequences

[tvz1997]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-effect-of-pitch-sequence-on-batting-eye-and-selectivity/

Above is a really interesting (to me at least) article on pitch sequences. It is just a starting point for further examination, but it attempts to show that doubling up on fastballs is very effective, while doubling up on curveballs, changeups, and sliders is not.

Want to guess what is the hardest of the four above-listed pitches to see after a changeup? If you guessed curveball, you are correct!

[TyCobb]

I doubt a curve ball is the best thing to throw after a CH. What this data doesn't tell you is that if you throw a CH you have a better chance of throwing a good CU.

[cityknight]

I do not like their conclusion.

Game theory shows that the optimal strategy is to randomly decide which pitch to throw where each pitch is weighted by it's effectiveness. If I have time later I can explain more fully, but essentially you want (odds of getting the guy out)(how often you should throw it) to equal the same number for each pitch: that would lead to the batter having no idea what is coming next. Teams must follow this right?

[tvz1997]

I do not like their conclusion.

Game theory shows that the optimal strategy is to randomly decide which pitch to throw where each pitch is weighted by it's effectiveness. If I have time later I can explain more fully, but essentially you want (odds of getting the guy out)(how often you should throw it) to equal the same number for each pitch: that would lead to the batter having no idea what is coming next. Teams must follow this right?

I see what you're saying and agree, but the author says that this will be his first article on the subject -- more of a starting point. Of course, different situations (Batter's expectations, count, men on base) will change things.