McPhail's bottom line

[mcgraw238]

This is true. The only thing is that this is not the NFL. You can't just have a couple good drafts, sign some FAs and poof - you're back in contention. It takes time, and with how bare our minor leagues were, combined with the fact that we only had 4 above average ML players: Markakis, Roberts, Tejada, and Bedard, I think you would need to give MacPhail at least 5 years before you could expect to contend.

I absolutely agree with this statement. I don't think people understand how bad our system has been for a very long time. Add to that, the fact that we really didn't have significant talent at the MLB level with which to rebuild. Essentially, our record was somewhat propped up by the Javy Lopez, Mora, Jay Gibbons, Raffy types. Now that we are relying on younger talent were seeing the typical struggles as that talent matures. Hoever, we do need to continue adding to that talent base.

[helloharv]

If the Orioles didnt have their names on their jerseys, I guarantee that you wouldn't be able to name half of the players when you watch them play.

What type of guarantee would like to make?

Honestly ----That is one of the dumbest things anyone has ever said to me in my 10 years posting on Oriole Message Boards. I have attended Opening Day 18 years in a row and have been to over 200 games during that time and watch almost every game on tv when I get home from coaching but I must not be an O's fan since I don't like Andy's "plan" ...... you are a riot :rofl:

[Mackus]

I said before the year that anything below 75 wins or so would leave me having some serious doubts about MacPhail's rebuild being successful. I still feel that way, although I'd probably drop that number to 70 or so now, if we can have a decent finish (~.500 here on out) after this horrid start, I wouldn't really be much less optimistic than I would be if we had just played at a 80-win pace the whole year, as long as we do have that turnaround.

But, if we continue to flounder, and do so largely because of poor performances from some pieces we expected to take strides forward and establish themselves as pieces of the future (Jones, Reimold, Bergesen, and others), then my optimism in MacPhail's plan being able to get us where we need to go will take a huge hit.

I don't think there is any amount of poor performance that would make me want MacPhail fired just yet, but next year I fully expect to be a solid team, and if we are abysmal this year, it will make achieving that seem far more unlikely.

[brianod]

I'm shocked that there are those that think that rebuilding a farm system and MLB roster that had been destroyed for more than a decade will be rebuilt to contention status in 2-3 years. Not to mention those same folks believe that enriching John Lackey by 80 million and Matt Holliday by $ 150 million would propel us to contention all the while leaving funds in reserve to extend the young nucleus as they approach free agency.

MacPhail stated enough of rebuilding, it's time for results. While you teach the rest of us what rebuilding takes, maybe you can invite MacPhail to the class.

[mcgraw238]

MacPhail stated enough of rebuilding, it's time for results. While you teach the rest of us what rebuilding takes, maybe you can invite MacPhail to the class.

Relax bro, I made a simple observation about the mess AM inherited and what it takes to right the ship. No need to take it to the personal level. Heck, I agree with your initial take on Trembley; I'm just not ready to throw down the gaunlet on AM like you are.

[BrunoCherrytown]

I'm not one to let AM totally off the hook though I don't think that overpaying for Lackey and Holliday (or the like) would have solved anything. More needs to be done and should be done. I do, however, appreciate that AM has been able to gain a degree of autonomy from Angelos that no other GM has been able to get; At least that's the perception.

What if...

Signing Holliday had been the precursor to say trading for AGon with a package around Jones and Tillman and then lower level prospects?

That's a pretty solid way to speed up a rebuilding process and it's not gonna break the bank this year as AGon has that sweet contract until after next season.

So let me ask you this:

If you had to overpay for Holliday and the end result is:

1.) you get Holliday and AGon

2.) minus Jones, Tillman and 2 minor leaguers not named Britton, Arrieta. You could swap out Tillman with Arrieta too.

3.) let's assume Jones was awesome and Pie stayed uninjured and played decently. That way we both don't use hindsight and the trade is viable due to Jones' past performance and local San Diego ties.

4.) We offer AGon a market rate extension $22-$25per that doesn't kick in til after 2011 season when his current expires. And we risk he doesn't take it.

5.) Reimold is then a DH or LF. But he doesnt have to be great for us to survive these games at least. Luke Scott is a casualty in this situation. But who cares.

Is that still overpaying in your eyes or instantly giving us one of the best offenses on paper?

Even with an injured BRob - Pie could've slid into the leadoff in our scenario. And if by some miracle his back didn't explode like it did - we have a top to bottom lineup except for Izturis.

The payroll is not unbearable this year or next. When we get hit with AGon we would presumably have more fans in the stands and on TV thus more revenue. But we did have to overpay for Holliday.

Jones goes on to have a great career in San Diego until he is traded for prospects...AGon goes on to a great career with us and we become contenders sooner.

To your other point:

About the internal development point - do you blame MacPhail for being cheap with Miguel Sano? It's widely reported that we were given the chance to match the Twins. We are talking the Twins here not the Yankees/Sox.

Sano was universally regarded as the #1 international prospect this year. Which i thought was odd cause he was over Chapman. Although that may have just been positional prospects.

Our guys loved Sano. Then we got the ol' out of our price range excuse from the front office. $3.15 million for "potentially" the next Hanley Ramirez? How is that out of our price range but the Twins, not so much. Who has a better recent history of developing talent - us or the Twins? This was another dollar store decision in my eyes.

He could bust and so could every one of our prospects. And it's not like that money didn't take away from paying any draft picks. We saved that money in the first round for those latter round picks.

And those worries about Sano's age were handled nicely in the contract the Twins had with him.

We are going to try to find "hidden gems" aka cheap, in the international market, but not go after the ones everybody likes, because of cost - sounds like our free agent strategy.

We didn't need a fleet of scouts for that particular prospect. And that's not how strong teams develop from within.

And the one signing everybody is gonna argue - Koji - was a mid 30s, over the hill pitcher. I mean c'mon. That's a retread/reclamation project.

This is the biggest frustration i've had with MacPhail. I mean he is cheap on all fronts except the draft.

That's it.

But I'd like to see him challenged on that one.

I wish Harper would to fall to us in the draft just to see the pressure MacPhail would have to sign him and what kind of excuse about cost vs. value we'd get when we don't.

He may not be as good as Wieters...he may be far better. I don't know, but what I do know is he's going to cost twice what Wieters did. Same agent and we know how down to the wire that went.

If the things i presented here were done this offseason we could've gotten better for this year and future years, not raided the farm system too bad. Gotten a top international prospect. And put a great deal of more butts in the stands. (thus allowing us to resign our own prospects too)

But it would've started with overpaying for Holliday - which I only would've done with the AGon deal in place before that contract was signed.

I'm not a Holliday fan by any measure. This offseason I really thought for about 2 days when that "lurking in the weeds b.s." was coming out that we had this two part strategy going for AGon and Holliday, because it was the only thing that made sense in my twisted mind. Since we didn't need Holliday.

[RShack]

This is the biggest frustration i've had with MacPhail. I mean he is cheap on all fronts except the draft.

That's it.

But I'd like to see him challenged on that one.

Well, he wasn't particularly cheap with BRob or Nick. Here's the unknown: Is it a matter of terminal cheapness with FA's or is it a matter of choice-and-timing? Personally, I think he's addressed that explicitly and pretty much said out loud that it's timing, that he intends to spend on the right guy at the right time, and that ownership is eager (not just willing, but eager) to do that. So, it pretty much comes down to whether you believe he's telling the truth or BS'ing everybody.

Some folks think it's BS and choose to believe that his decisions will correspond to the ones in CHI, but I see no reason to think that. Since he's been here, I think he's been remarkably straightforward about saying what he is and isn't gonna do. I also think there has been consistency between words and actions. The only place where I think you can point out an inconsistency between word and deed is the issue of getting a RH bat this past winter. They tried to pass off Atkins as that, and everybody knew better than that, knew that Atkins is very iffy at best, but what we don't know is what his real choices were. It could be that nobody who was worth a flip would come here on a short-term deal, and they were just putting the best spin on it. That's what I think it was. Even so, it's hard to claim that Miggi is not acting like a middle-of-the-order bat. Other than that one thing, I don't see either BS or inconsistency, I see plain talk about what he's doing and strong correspondence between word and action.

[BrunoCherrytown]

Well, he wasn't particularly cheap with BRob or Nick. Here's the unknown: Is it a matter of terminal cheapness with FA's or is it a matter of choice-and-timing? Personally, I think he's addressed that explicitly and pretty much said out loud that it's timing, that he intends to spend on the right guy at the right time, and that ownership is eager (not just willing, but eager) to do that. So, it pretty much comes down to whether you believe he's telling the truth or BS'ing everybody.

Some folks think it's BS and choose to believe that his decisions will correspond to the ones in CHI, but I see no reason to think that. Since he's been here, I think he's been remarkably straightforward about saying what he is and isn't gonna do. I also think there has been consistency between words and actions. The only place where I think you can point out an inconsistency between word and deed is the issue of getting a RH bat this past winter. They tried to pass off Atkins as that, and everybody knew better than that, knew that Atkins is very iffy at best, but what we don't know is what his real choices were. It could be that nobody who was worth a flip would come here on a short-term deal, and they were just putting the best spin on it. That's what I think it was. Even so, it's hard to claim that Miggi is not acting like a middle-of-the-order bat. Other than that one thing, I don't see either BS or inconsistency, I see plain talk about what he's doing and strong correspondence between word and action.

I definitely respect that opinion and hope you're right and I'm wrong.

He's had a lot of choice and alot of time throughout his career to spend on free agents and international prospects. It's odd that the timing would always be off. And that's why he's avoided it his entire career. Because there have been some top tier free agents and international prospects out there that he always didn't like the timing on.

And I hate to say it, but I just don't think you'll see the next Commish' going out and breaking the bank on players. I don' think it would be in his best career interests. I hate believing in that particular thought, because I start tapdancing in conspiracy land instead of just in he and Angelos are cheap land.

That's my take on the matter.

I think i've ran out of my usual standing on my soapbox points on this front. I'm sure I'll by utter knee jerk, reflex reaction - rehash them in some other thread down the road.

I guess we'll all just have to wait and see who's right and who's wrong. And I'm definitely rooting against myself and my opinion in this argument. Nobody wants to be wrong more than me here!

[RShack]

I definitely respect that opinion and hope you're right and I'm wrong.

He's had a lot of choice and alot of time throughout his career to spend on free agents and international prospects. It's odd that the timing would always be off. And that's why he's avoided it his entire career. Because there have been some top tier free agents and international prospects out there that he always didn't like the timing on.

Oh, I'm not saying it was always timing. In CHI he had a different job, he was minding the Trib's money for them, and who knows what his real directives were. Here, he's basically the GM, and it appears to me that the owner wants to win before he's done. So, while it certainly is debatable, I think he's in a different situation here than he was before. But I agree with you that only time will tell, no way to know for sure in advance...

[mcgraw238]

What if...

Signing Holliday had been the precursor to say trading for AGon with a package around Jones and Tillman and then lower level prospects?

That's a pretty solid way to speed up a rebuilding process and it's not gonna break the bank this year as AGon has that sweet contract until after next season.

So let me ask you this:

If you had to overpay for Holliday and the end result is:

1.) you get Holliday and AGon

2.) minus Jones, Tillman and 2 minor leaguers not named Britton, Arrieta. You could swap out Tillman with Arrieta too.

3.) let's assume Jones was awesome and Pie stayed uninjured and played decently. That way we both don't use hindsight and the trade is viable due to Jones' past performance and local San Diego ties.

4.) We offer AGon a market rate extension $22-$25per that doesn't kick in til after 2011 season when his current expires. And we risk he doesn't take it.

5.) Reimold is then a DH or LF. But he doesnt have to be great for us to survive these games at least. Luke Scott is a casualty in this situation. But who cares.

As a fan, I could have bought into the excitement of such ambitious moves (at least on paper) and the excitement that these moves would have lead to. I'm not sure if the cost of players and contract terms would have been worth it in the long run. I fear these 7-8 year deals to 28-29 year old free agents are franchise killers prior to their termination. There is also the ability to resign our internal guys down the road that needs to be factored into the equation. To many variables that we don't have access to really make the call on this front. I would probably be as inclined, if not more, to swing a deal for AGon independent of Holliday and make him an offer he can't refuse.

To your other point:

About the internal development point - do you blame MacPhail for being cheap with Miguel Sano? It's widely reported that we were given the chance to match the Twins. We are talking the Twins here not the Yankees/Sox.

And the one signing everybody is gonna argue - Koji - was a mid 30s, over the hill pitcher. I mean c'mon. That's a retread/reclamation project.

Koji was a nice signing, but that's all it really amounts to. Now I don't think I will ever advocate a contract such as the Red Sox gave Dice-K. That said, we are in complete agreement on a guy like Sano. Especially, if we were in fact given the chance to beat the Twins offer. Heck, we even had his agent posting over here from time to time. Honestly, I think a Sano type signing would have gone a long way with the fan base as well. A missed opportunity. I'm with you (and others) on the international scouting criticism.

This is the biggest frustration i've had with MacPhail. I mean he is cheap on all fronts except the draft. QUOTE]

Excellant post. As I said above, I would have bought into the moves if they had been made. For now, I willing to go a lower further out on AM before my frustration level erupts as I knew they would be a rebuilding year as well though I hoped it would be better than it has been to date. I think my patience is somewhat grounded in the fact that AM appears to have Angelos staying away from the Warehouse, Rosenthal article notwithstanding. At some point there will be the need for some strategic acquisitions to upgrade the roster.

[LOUDOUN_BIRD]

Well Gordo, we agree again. I am just at a loss for why MacPhail seems to get a pass from so many posters here, when this is his baby. He had to go out early and get Gonzalez and Atkins. He no doubt paid more for each of them than he had to, because they were his picks. At the end, he picked up Tejada (Thank you, God) because he was all that was left. That is his only smart offseason move on the FA market. I was on here griping all offseason long, as were you, getting ripped by the majority of our posters because MacPhail was beyond reproach. Well, he had an awful offseason and did not produce the talent that he said he would to help DT. Now, he will likely fire DT. Then he will spin his BS plan all over again with a new poor, unsuspecting slob wearing the Managers jersey. I would just like to know one thing. When will Andy MacPhail be held accountable for this team? Next year? 2015? When?

Well, given the sentiment on this board, the Os will have 5 100 loss seasons in a row yet somehow this will be a conflagaration of every other factor in the world - EXCEPT MacPhail; the Teflon GM

[brianod]

Relax bro, I made a simple observation about the mess AM inherited and what it takes to right the ship. No need to take it to the personal level. Heck, I agree with your initial take on Trembley; I'm just not ready to throw down the gaunlet on AM like you are.

The scary thing for me is that MacPhail thought they were ready to win this year. He basically promised the fans that his two years of work were ready to pay off. The opposite has occurred. I think that shows a total lack of judgment on his part. If he misjudged that, what about his future judgments? Of course, the season isn't over and I really hope he was right. Injuries and underperformances have derailed the early season. Maybe, they turn it around. I doubt it very much with the current coaching staff but I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

[H0smash]

The scary thing for me is that MacPhail thought they were ready to win this year. He basically promised the fans that his two years of work were ready to pay off. The opposite has occurred. I think that shows a total lack of judgment on his part. If he misjudged that, what about his future judgments? Of course, the season isn't over and I really hope he was right. Injuries and underperformances have derailed the early season. Maybe, they turn it around. I doubt it very much with the current coaching staff but I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

Whoa Whoa Whoa. Hold the bus. All MacPhail ever said was that this year would be more about wins and loses [and less about rebuilding]. He never said or that that we would have a winning season this year, go to the playoffs contend, etc. Furthermore, when pushed by the media and fans he could not come up with a win total that he would like to see in order to feel that this season was a success. No one in their right mind should have thought that this team would contend this year. They might have finished something like 82-80, but even that probably would have been a miracle.

[RShack]

The scary thing for me is that MacPhail thought they were ready to win this year. He basically promised the fans that his two years of work were ready to pay off.

That does not resemble the truth in any way. You just made it up.

[brianod]

That does not resemble the truth in any way. You just made it up.

When he said this season was more about wins and losses, I interpreted that as saying we will be significantly better this season then last. We are worse. I was hoping for .500. I was hoping for being a competitive team. I'm really shocked that we seem to have taken a step back. I don't mean to say he promised a playoff spot, he certainly didn't. But he did seem to think we would be better. We aren't.