ChosenOne21

I've always enjoyed the old boats parked in the Inner Harbor that you can tour. Also, the Babe Ruth Museum

I'm not watching, how bad does the Bradish injury look? And what happened?

I've always thought of a ceiling for Norby as Dan Uggla with a bit less bat and a bit more glove

What even is the strike zone today?

What does Stowers have to do to get in a lineup?

When did he move Bencosme? Are you thinking of Hernaiz?

Baker is in the pen for sure to start the year. I think he ends up being a fine reliever this year. If GrayRod is in the rotation, Wells and Voth are probably the long men in the pen who will be the first candidates for the rotation if someone is injured/struggles. If GrayRod goes to AAA, one of them steps in. My guess is Voth gets first crack based on last year.

If the health continues to be a problem, Hays is probably a great 4th outfielder on a strong contender. Not playing every day could keep him healthier. If he stays healthy he's an above average starting outfielder (probably worse in center because his defense would be stretched)

Ryan Ripken says hi.

I feel like they flipped Gunnar and Jackson there

Absolute ceilings? Gibson: 4.00 Irvin: 4.00 Kremer: 3.70 Bradish: 3.40 Rodriguez (in his first year): 3.20 Well above average results? Gibson: 4.25 Irvin: 4.25 Kremer: 4.00 Bradish: 3.80 Rodriguez: 3.70 50th percentile? Gibson: 4.50 Irvin: 4.60 Kremer: 4.25 Bradish: 4.15 Rodriguez: 4.00 Well below average? Gibson: 4.90 Irvin: 5.10 Kremer: 4.50 Bradish: 4.40 Rodriguez: 4.30 Absolute disaster? Gibson: 5.40 Irvin: 5.60 Kremer: 4.95 Bradish: 4.80 Rodriguez: 4.60 Though honestly most of them could put up demoted/out of baseball numbers and it wouldn't shock me. These are FIP predictions, btw. I think Wells's ceiling is around Kremer's and his floor is around Gibson's if I'm going to add him to the mix. Voth I would say has a ceiling around Kremer (maybe a little worse) and a floor a bit worse than Irvin

I've been waiting

Isn't the most optimal batting lineup putting your best hitter number 1, second best at 2 etc. down to your worst hitter at 9? I think I heard too that if two hitters are really close you should put OBP ahead of slugging

Huh, didn't realize that about them. I'm not sure I completely buy that Gunnar's age 20 is the same as Manny's age 18 because it's not just about play time but physical maturity as well. I filled out quite a bit from age 18 to age 20 Even so, I still think the comparison favors Machado. Do you think Gunnar has a better hit tool than Machado?

I think MOO is looking at Westburg through some pretty rose-colored glasses. He'll hit at the MLB level, but if he was a top three hitter on my team I'd be wanting to improve my offense

Maybe? Machado hit .257 in A-A+ as an 18 year old. Gunnar hit .259 in rookie ball at 18. At 19, Machado hit like .264 between AA and MLB. Gunnar lost that season to COVID, but I sort of doubt he hits that well at that level if he played. Machado hit .283 in MLB as a 20-year-old, Gunnar hit .258 across A, A+ and AA at 20. Machado's career BA is .282. Gunnar has beaten that number over a full season once. Gunnar is going to hit just fine at the MLB level, but I'm betting his career BA is more like .260 compared to Machado's .280-ish. I think Gunnar could be Machado with the bat, or even a little better, but I don't think he comes close to Machado's career WAR because he's not a platinum glove 3B.

Wieters put up video game numbers in AA as a catcher. He would 100% be the top prospect in baseball right now if he/his younger clone did that last year. IIRC, Matusz was regarded as the top arm in the 2008 draft. He was pitching in the majors the year after he was drafted. His delivery had such a short stride, many evaluators thought he could add velocity and sit 94 if the O's lengthened his stride/altered his delivery. He had a plus curve, plus command, and a plus-plus changeup. The question mark was the fastball and like I said, there was reason to believe that could be improved. Sadly we know how that story went. He never gained velocity and eventually lost the feel for his changeup, but he 100% deserved the hype and would easily be top 5 in our system. I'd probably put 2009 Matusz behind only Gunnar, Rodriguez and probably Holliday Britton I'm pretty sure was undervalued by everyone except Tony. Definitely a top 10 talent in a loaded system. Arrieta, too, would be top 10, probably just outside the top 5. I doubt anyone in this conversation has a better career than Manny Machado will. He was rushed to the majors before he could truly light up prospect charts, but he's basically Gunnar with a better glove/arm and hit tool, lesser speed, a lesser batting eye, and maybe a smidgeon less power. He'd probably be battling Gunnar and Rodriguez for the top spot in the system

I'd be pretty surprised if they brought Westburg up to DH. Isn't positional flexibility his calling card? Rest looks pretty accurate, great job!

Thanks! Couldn't remember the first letter of the other WAR variant and assumed it was o + d

webbrick's way off base here, but by oWAR + dWAR Machado's career high was 8.0 in his age 22 season and he had 7.4 last year.

Glad he's mending well, but Vespi is probably the last reliever out of the pen in a good bullpen. I doubt he's integral to our success in any way, and if he's pitching a ton of innings it's likely because other relievers were hurt/ineffective

If all goes well, probably

Baseball Trade Values has this as pretty lopsided for the Orioles. They have Irvin at 15 million surplus value, Virbitsky at like 1.6 and Hernaiz at 2.7

Exactly this. The underlying numbers suggest there's a good chance he's a lot better than a 6th starter. He's not going to be an ace or anything, but if the 6th best starter on my team had a 3.96 FIP last year, I'd be ecstatic

FWIW, I'm 6'2". I was 6'2" at 14 and haven't grown taller since