ChosenOne21

My point is that if every pitcher or most pitchers aren't producing value for 1-1.5 years of club control, and you still need the same amount of innings pitched, you need more pitchers than you used to which is going to make pitchers, especially the top ones, more valuable. Demand definitely increases as injuries increase, but whether or not throwing max-effort increases the supply of top pitchers enough to compensate is a question mark. I guess you could argue that each individual pitcher is filling less of his team's pitching needs than a 2B is filling his team's position player needs. And it might be the more stable route to try to somewhat make up for pitcher injuries by maxing out on position player talent. The Orioles are likely doing exactly this to great success! But if you want to max out the pitching side, you're going to need more players to do that than you would position players. Which, I'm saying, implies a top pitcher has more value than a top position player, assuming no significant differences in talent.

All I'm saying is if the "new normal" is that a pitcher will undergo TJ while under club control, it doesn't make sense to knock a pitcher for being likely to undergo TJ. Does the focus on max-effort throwing create enough new top-of-the-line pitchers to offset or surpass the years lost to TJ? I dunno. But if it doesn't, I'd argue that this makes pitchers more valuable because now there are fewer years of top pitching to fill demand. Maybe the shotgun approach works better than targeting top talent. The Orioles have done the shotgun approach decently well. But it's incredibly unlikely to get someone like Skenes that way. Granted, I'm assuming the game is 50% hitting/fielding and 50% pitching, but it more or less is, isn't it? And if it is, then I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea to trade a top position player talent for a top pitching talent. If you think Jackson Holliday is more talented as a position player than Paul Skenes is as a pitcher, that's fine. You can make that case. They look pretty similar to me, we're rich in position player talent, and we need starting pitching.

I always thought he was Alex Wells 2.0, but it sounds like his pitches and velocity are better. Which is good, because Wells was never close to being a MLB starting pitcher.

It's fine to prefer Holliday over Skenes, but this "no thanks, pitchers get hurt" idea is getting to be a bit much. If all good pitchers get hurt and we need good pitchers to win, we need good pitchers who will get hurt. I don't know where we're going to find these mythical unicorn pitchers who aren't an injury risk.

That's really tough. Holliday is the safer bet, but Skenes would fill a huge area of need. Assuming medicals all check out, if I'm the Orioles I'd probably trade Holliday for Skenes, but that says at least as much about the Orioles' needs as it does the quality of the players.

I'm guessing Snell REALLY wanted west coast and the teams out there didn't have room for another huge long-term contract.

Would you rather have Hancock over Kjerstad + Mayo?

Mullins developed more power than you'd have expected. Maybe Bradfield can do the same, but I'm not betting on it.

$60 million in one player for one season is much more valuable than $60 million in one player over six seasons.

The more I think about it, the more likely I think it is Holliday and Mayo start in AAA. Infield is probably Mountcastle/O'Hearn at 1B, Westburg at 2B, Gunnar at SS, and Urias at 3B to start the year. Holliday's stat line looks good, but he's also striking out a ton especially against lefties. Personally, I'd start him at 2B and send him down if he struggles, but I don't think the O's are planning to do that. I think Mayo could be up quick if we trade Urias, or if Urias/Mountcastle/O'Hearn struggles. I would be shocked if the Orioles make Suarez the 5th starter over Irvin out of the gate. If Irvin struggles to start the year and Suarez looks good, maybe they make the switch. I think Webb and Akin are both in the pen to start the year and Tate isn't. Tate didn't pitch at all last year and hasn't looked especially great in spring training. I think he's first man up but starts in AAA. Both Webb and Akin are out of options, and Akin has looked pretty good so far. I agree that Cowser is more likely to make the team than Kjerstad, but who gets their playing time cut out of Hays, Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle and O'Hearn? Wouldn't shock me if they keep both players in AAA until someone gets hurt or is ineffective. I agree that Nevin, Maton, and McKenna are likely DFA.

Colby Rasmus I hope you...

I guess the outfielder is pretty highly thought of. Maybe he's more like Braylin Tavera? Still not impressed.

Thorpe is like 85th ranked-ish. Iriarte was back of their top-10 or so. Wilson's stat line looks a lot like Jacob Webb's. I think the Orioles equivalent is something like Ortiz, Povich, Webb, Thomas Sosa I guess they really wanted pitching we didn't have, because that return isn't that amazing.

Two pretty good pitching prospects, an average-ish 29 year old reliever, and a 19-year-old international lottery ticket outfielder. Doesn't seem worlds better than what we likely offered.

Why not start him in the majors and send him down if he struggles? If he does well, the team benefits from his performance and you have a shot at the extra pick. If he struggles, you get the extra year of control. I think you'd have to be around Shohei Otani levels of talent for your seventh season to have more surplus value than a draft pick + 3 extra weeks of play. If you think the guy has a good shot at RoY or runner-up, start the season with him.

You've said it's real and strategic but not quantifiable. That's practically word salad. Doesn't seem like I'm the one who needs a nap.

I don't see how chemistry is remotely quantifiable. I'm sure when the team is winning everyone's happy and gets along better and when they're losing players are unhappy. I think people have cause and effect exactly backwards when they say chemistry helps a team win. And even if chemistry leads to better on field performance how do you begin to tease that out? If a player hits 20 home runs one year, how many of those were because of "chemistry?" Maybe some of them were, but how do you ever figure that out?

All Elias has said is by the All-Star Break. My guess is late May/early June at best.

This seems to happen most years. My guess is the guys who are on the bubble of getting a roster spot play their hearts out to try to win a spot, while the guys who are guaranteed a spot are taking it a little bit easier, working on stuff, etc.

I'm not sure why so many people think this is a crappy bullpen. Sure, it probably won't be as good as last year, but that's a long way from crappy. Kimbrel is a die-roll, I'll give you that. Cano should be good. Coulombe should be good. Perez has a strong chance to be good. He walks too many, but he gives up weak contact. Tate, Baumann, and Akin all have question marks but have all looked good so far. I don't know what you guys want from Webb. He had a 3.27 ERA / 2.80 FIP in half a season for us last year. He walks a lot of guys, but he doesn't give up many hits. He didn't give up any home runs after he came over. His WHIP was 1.182, which is pretty good for a reliever. He doesn't exactly scream "closer" but he seems like a fine middle reliever. You could do worse for depth than Baker and Vespi

I would rather have Webb in the pen than Teheran

Assuming there are no issues with his performance and they send him down anyway, I hate it. It's different if he looks a little overmatched, or needs more time to learn 2B. We're trying to contend, so we need the best players out there. If that's Holliday, then that's Holliday. He's also got to be on the short list for ROY as things are. If he struggles, we can send him down and get the extra year of service time.

Defense?

I said Beckham. The one I missed is Surhoff. He's the one I should have known. Didn't know Baines went first overall.

Ben McDonald Adley Rutschman Tim Beckham Kris Benson? EDIT: Jackson Holliday is one of the spring training ones. Don't know who the other is. Double EDIT: I looked up the other three. One I should have known, one I didn't know was a #1 draft pick. Also had no idea the guy whose son has played for us was ever almost traded to us.