Sydnor

They could surprise us. I’m only saying it’s not exactly common and I’m not expecting it.

Lots of data for the model!

Based on what I know about past drafts, that’s not really a thing. They could’ve/should’ve talked to the representatives for any overslot players they were interested in after days 1 and 2 of the draft to get the number it would take for the player to sign and then taken them, not wait to round 19.

I think (and thought) @Can_of_corn was onto something last year when he noted the O’s didn’t spend their full pool. Maybe Cowser is getting slot and Trimble and Rhodes cost more than we think, but Faleris knows what he’s talking about and says the O’s have money to spend today. We’ll see...

I hope you’re right, but guys picked in the top 10 rounds generally sign, so there isn’t much risk to taking them. So if they wanted 1 or 2 of the high school ceiling players, they could’ve just taken them.

I don’t care about rankings, but I think that it’s fair for people to feel less optimistic after the first 10 rounds of the draft. After 3 drafts, it appears that Elias likes “college performers” with high exit velocities and doesn’t care about questionable hit tools and avoids pitchers. Trimble is a little different because he has some tools, but they haven’t drafted power arms or high ceiling high school players outside of Henderson (Mayo and Baumler were several tiers below Henderson coming out of high school). I hope Elias’ strategy works, but I have always liked high upside high school kids and don’t really care about the risks involved. I think the biggest weakness of the system is a lack of high ceiling impact players and the college guys that he has drafted don’t scream high ceiling. Elias seems like the kind of guy that would’ve drafted Christian Colon over Manny Machado because they had more data on Colon and the model preferred him. Maybe Trimble works out, but I would’ve much preferred Bubba Chandler because his 97 mph fastball and multi-sport athlete background makes him a more exciting prospect to me with a higher ceiling. It’s the same reason I would’ve drafted Rocker, House, or Watson over Cowser, but he knows more than me and I hope his picks are good. They just aren’t the types of players some people prefer and I think that’s okay.

If they wanted to draft any of the over slot high school players like Burns, Taylor, Montgomery, or Jump they would have already done so. I do not think they intend to spend their allotment again this year.

You are right, but I don’t think they’re spending their entire pool unless I’m missing something.

At this point, do we think the team will spend all of its pool? If Cowser is underslot and with the two “senior signs,” I’m wondering if there’s any talent left that would get them there. I can’t imagine that Taylor, Montgomery, etc. would sign at this point.

Anthony Solometo, Will Taylor, Bubba Chandler, Jaden Hill, or Michael Morales, but I’m preparing myself for Peyton Wilson or Adrian del Castillo.

I’ll admit that I am certainly no expert, but I don’t like the pick (and I didn’t like the Kjerstad pick) because both picks were boring. You can dream on the potential of Khalil Watson or Brady House. You can remember Rocker’s no-hitter in the CWS and dream of him becoming an ace. Elias has drafted a couple college outfielders that just aren’t exciting. With respect to Cowser, he’s a guy from Sam Houston that doesn’t have any jump off the page tools and just seems boring. Because he doesn’t appear to have any jump off the page tools, I don’t think it helps the biggest weakness of the system—high ceiling talent (in my opinion). Regardless, Elias seems to be all-in on the build a pitcher and build a player model, where generally prefers quantity (with certain traits) over ceiling. Cowser should allow him to spread the pool to get quantity at a similar level again.

Lawlar is an older high school player, which is a demographic that carries some risk, and he also has questions regarding his hit tool. House is a younger high school player with big exit velocities with a longer track record of performance. He also has questions concerning his hit tool, but quelled some of them with his performance this spring. House has a cannon for an arm and should be able to play third if he can’t stick at short, but there are some questions about his ability to stick on the dirt. If they go high school hitter, my personal preference is Watson, but I honestly have no clue what the organization will do and I don’t think anyone else does either a month before the draft. At this point everything is conjecture, but it’s fun to speculate.

It’s early for Leiter, but the velo was up

I have no idea whether it was simply finishing school, but that sound like something he did because he could not be at instructs. I did find Blood’s quote to be a bit ominous (and not particularly clear) when he said: We’ve got a plan with him and the hopes are we’ll see him next year and put him right into the mix with the rest of these guys who have been exciting to watch. When Blood says “the hopes are we’ll see him next year,” is he suggesting that it’s not clear as to whether he’ll be able to play next year? Probably not, but I didn’t love the language used by Blood.

This is from the article: “It’s pretty much the same thing they told (Brocail),” Flores said in a phone interview. “When I received the call from Mike, the GM, he just told me it was a decision that they really didn’t want to make, but that ownership had put pressure on him to decrease the budget and the staff, and I was one of the guys that they decided to let go.” https://theathletic.com/2109598/2020/10/02/connolly-why-the-orioles-moved-on-from-coaches-doug-brocail-and-jose-flores/

As someone who lives part-time in VA Beach, my impression (I haven’t conducted a survey) is that in the Tidewater region, Orioles fans and Braves fans outnumber Nationals fans. I haven’t been to a ton of minor league parks, but Harbor Park is pretty solid. I think it’s a good move to keep a presence in the region.

I suspect Wilcox is looking for an overslot deal as a draft eligible sophomore. He has the leverage to go back to school (as does JT Ginn).

I think Law was suggesting that the savings from Kjerstad should’ve enabled the O’s to go over slot at both 30 and 39. Perhaps they will go over slot at 39 and 74. I’m somewhat skeptical that they’re going to spend their full allotment, but will be happy to be wrong (I’m aware that they’ve traditionally spent the full allotment, but this is a different year with Covid and the new presence in Latin America). We will find out!

Keith Law on Westburg and the underslot strategy: If that pick was to save money, rather than a straight preference for Kjerstad, they didn’t take advantage of it at pick 30, the first selection of the Competitive Balance A round, where they took Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg, a very good athlete who also strikes out too much and has to work on pitch recognition as well as reducing his leak at the plate. https://theathletic.com/1865805/2020/06/10/law-thoughts-and-analysis-from-day-1-of-the-mlb-draft/?source=user_shared_article

Cole Wilcox, Markevian Hence, David Calabrese, or Masyn Winn.

Exactly. I just can’t get over it. It feels like they just drafted a potential platoon DH at 1-2.

I don’t care what they do with the rest of the draft. I could not be more disappointed in this pick. He struck out 22% of the time and 7th most in the SEC. I said I wouldn’t meltdown over Gonzales and meant it. I saw Keith Law mention this rumor, but never believed it. I won’t meltdown over this pick, but I won’t be watching the remainder of the draft.