Sydnor

I thought Bright was a Junior and unlikely to be a $10k signing.

Literally any pitcher. I suspect they’ll draft a college bat (probably an outfielder) with good exit velocities, but questions about the hit tool. It seems like this has been going on for 2 years. In his MASN interview, Ciolek basically said they think they have the secret sauce to take guys late and turn them into pitchers that outperform their draft slots. Those pitchers generally end up looking like Dylan Heid. Some analysts, including Tony, think Baumler is one of the O’s three-five best pitching prospects. He’s thrown 11.2 innings since he was drafted.

Literally any pitcher.

I think this is fair. I’ve said before that I think Mike would’ve picked Christian Colon over Manny for this reason. I am probably the most negative on Lee, but if he’s the pick, I hope he’s a decent player. I just hate that you lose 100+ to draft a guy that doesn’t appear to have the most superstar upside in the draft because you’re too cautious to draft a high school player in the first round. You didn’t say this at all, but I’ll say it here: I hate the fast mover/fits the window argument too. First, if you draft a high school player that high, there should be no material difference in how quickly a college player and that high school player move through the system. Second, Mike has described his elite talent pipeline as an effort to avoid peaks and valleys, so fast moving shouldn’t be a consideration. At this point, we’ll see what happens, but I tend to trust Vegas.

For what it’s worth, the odds didn’t flip to the Magic taking Banchero until about 6 hours before the draft. I’m preparing myself to be disappointed with Lee, but I’m trying to provide a glimmer of hope. I also don’t think Lee is going to go that far under slot. Callis made it sound like he wouldn’t be a big under slot and John Sheperd said last month that he wasn’t sure how Lee would save the Orioles money if you put stock in his opinions.

Not a mock draft, but I find it interesting because I have found that Vegas usually knows something. I’ll note that the odds could swing several times between now and Sunday as they did with Jabari Smith and Paola Banchero in the lead up to the NBA draft and Aiden Hutchinson and Travon Walker in the lead up to the NFL draft, so take it for what it’s worth at this point. Nevertheless, here are the current odds for who will be the number one pick: Brooks Lee -350 Druw Jones +275 Termarr Johnson +350 Jackson Holliday +1100 Elijah Green +5000 Jacob Berry +5000 Kevin Parada +10000 Gavin Cross +10000 https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/brooks-lee-favorite-odds-betting-mlb-draft-druw-jones-termarr-johnson-orioles/amp

I’m aware that the article is old, but I am not aware of any article written more recently. If I there is something more recent (and I’m not saying my memory is perfect), it’s probably BA or MLB because I read the McDaniel and Law stuff pretty religiously, and I think Longenhagen is the only non-fantasy baseball writer left at Fangraphs right now and they aren’t really covering the draft.

Kiley McDaniel wrote the following in a fairly extensive article about Jones: The today version of Jones would go first in most, if not all, recent drafts for most scouts. The players most mentioned as peers come from the 2019 draft (Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr., though some mentioned Riley Greene and C.J. Abrams), 2012 (Byron Buxton) and 2011 (Gerrit Cole), with some stray mentions of other players also on this tier. I'd say about a quarter of the scouts called Jones the best draft prospect since Harper was drafted in 2010; the other three-fourths either took one of those other players or thought there was a multiway tie. There are three other former No. 1 picks -- Stephen Strasburg in 2009, David Pricein 2007 and Justin Upton in 2005 -- who join Harper as the only four prospects in recent memory to clearly top Jones. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/33447494/why-druw-jones-best-mlb-draft-prospect-bryce-harper?platform=amp So, not exactly a consensus best high school prospect in a decade, but a significant amount of scouts that would support that view.

When I have watched video of Brooks Lee swinging, in particular his left handed swing, it seems really jerky in the hips and his hips upper body came wide open. So perhaps effort was not that right word, but it seems like effort to me. Fair point about the HRs. I’m still not convinced he would be a good pick, but we’ll see what happens on Sunday.

I am just curious, would you prefer Brooks Lee to Termarr, and if so, why? I would be happy with basically anyone but Lee and would love to have someone convince me he would be a good pick. I see numbers that don’t really wow me given the level of competition he has faced (and the lack of walks when he played on the Cape), someone that is going to have to move off SS (like Johnson), is a slow runner, has a lot of effort in his swing, and doesn’t have big power potential.

This highlights my concerns about Lee. He plays against weak competition and his numbers against that weak competition and on the Cape aren’t eye popping, with a concerning lack of walks against higher level competition. I’ve seen posters say “you don’t tank for Johnson,” but are completely fine with Lee. Lee also is not a SS, is less athletic than Johnson if you trust Kiley McDaniel, and has less power potential. The three players that seem to have the most potential to be superstars are Jones, Holliday, and Green. Johnson might get there if you really believe in the hit tool and think he can get to 25-30 HRs. I would love to be convinced that Lee would be a great pick at 1-1, but I don’t see it. Maybe someone here can change my mind.

Good post. For what it’s worth, Keith Law also referred to him as an additional coach on the field and said he had exceptional makeup. Law also didn’t say he didn’t have the arm strength to stay at short. He said he would have to move off SS because of his footwork. If they take Johnson, I’m fine with it, but I don’t have a strong opinion other than preferring a high school bat. Johnson has the best pure hit tool in the draft class, with scouts saying it’s the best hit tool they’ve seen on a high school kid in a decade or more. Despite a small hitch in his swing, he does hit all pitch types and controls the zone, with outstanding hand-eye coordination and great bat speed, making good quality contact but with only average power. He’s a shortstop now but will move to second base in pro ball, with good hands but not the footwork to handle short. I think the present hit tool is a 60, at best, rather than a 70, although perhaps it will get there in time, but he’s swung and missed enough against good competition that the higher grade doesn’t apply just yet. He has exceptional makeup in every evaluation, from his feel for the game to the way he acts as an additional coach on the field to the interviews he’s had with scouts and team executives, so there’s greater confidence that he’ll reach his ceiling than there is for just about any high school player. That ceiling is tied to just how good his hit tool can become. https://theathletic.com/3409886/2022/07/10/mlb-draft-2022-top-100-ranking/?source=user_shared_article

Excited: Jones, Holliday, Johnson, Collier, Green Disappointed: Any college bat I think the system needs more high ceiling talent and I don’t think Brooks Lee qualifies as a high ceiling talent. Also, given how secretive the Elias regime is with the draft, I’ll be somewhat surprised if they take Lee because of the purported leak about Sig’s Bergman comp or Johnson given the very public nature of his workout.

I didn’t post this earlier this month, but now that there’s a thread about Cedric’s defense, it seems reasonable to post it. This breakdown is consistent with his ability on balls that require him to move laterally (noted by @Frobby above). I’ll add that I really enjoy watching Mullins play.

1. Jones 2. Collier 3. Johnson 4. Green 5. Lee 6. Holliday https://theathletic.com/3366251/2022/06/16/mlb-draft-prospects-kumar-rocker/?source=user_shared_article

I don’t think this means that they will select Murphy (I think trying to guess the comp pick would be almost impossible) but Kiley McDaniel also suggested that the Orioles could be interested in Owen Murphy (I personally hope they take Prielipp if he’s there). I could also see a high-upside, tough-to-sign high school pitcher, and Illinois preps LHP Noah Schultz and RHP Owen Murphy seem like the Orioles' type. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34013502/2022-mlb-mock-draft-10-kiley-mcdaniel-projects-first-round?platform=amp

I remembered @Luke-OHdiscussing Arauz few years ago. There’s probably more, but this is what I was able to find quickly. On 11/22/2019 at 6:39 AM, Luke-OH said: It depends on what you want, if you want someone who can play regularly in 2020 at SS, the best option might be Yonny Hernandez. Not an upside type, but he walked more than he struck out at 20-21 years old between A+/AA. He can run and play all over the infield. The hope is he turns into a solid utility IF. I don't think SS is a strong position in the Rule 5 this year, but the best of the bunch seems to be Jonathan Arauz. He held his own between A+/AA as a 20 year old, with some present over the fence power.

I think this is really important. I am not a scout, but have watched the minors to try to find some hope. I think Adley will be fine. Bradish has and continues to look like a bullpen arm. The Kjerstad draft can be evaluated in terms of the overall strategy. Westburg has picked up his performance, but is still striking out 27% of the time as a 23 year old in AA. Haskin looks like a 4th outfielder if things go right, as his numbers as a 23 year old in AA are more similar to what McKenna did in AA at 22 than what Mullins did in AA at 23. Servideo hasn’t played but seems to lack the power to be more than a utility infielder if everything goes right. As you said, Mayo seems a little lost and Baumler is just now starting is career in low A. Their development is key to the draft, and outside of Mayo’s tools, there isn’t a lot to be excited about. To me, Cowser also looks lost and I don’t know whether it’s the increase in competition, a swing change, a change in approach recommended by the Orioles, or something else. If it is a swing change or change in approach recommended by the organization, prior regimes have been criticized for a one-size fits all approach to development. Nobody else from the 2021 draft has had a Hays-like first full season where they’ve really popped. Rhodes was off to a nice start, but is injured, and there are real questions about his power, and certainly wasn’t jumping out at you. So we’re three drafts into the Elias regime, two of which involved them spreading the pool around to “get more bites at the apple,” and with respect to performance, it has been a fairly disappointing couple of months. If you want to trade Mullins/Santander/Hays, it might be a good deal, but who replaces them? Stowers seems promising, but he’s still striking out almost 24% of the time as a 24 year old in AAA. The team hasn’t shown that it’s going to spend money, so I think some disappointment at this point in the season is not unreasonable.

I think I would prefer to trade Mountcastle and extend Mancini if Mountcastle’s trade value is high enough. I’m not sure what Mountcastle’s value is given his profile as a hitter with above average power, a low OBP, and average defense at 1B. In fact, by OAA, Mancini has been better defensively at first than Mountcastle. I also like Mancini’s approach better and I think he could be had on a reasonable 3 year deal. But the money you would pay to Mancini would need to be balanced against the value the of prospect(s) you would receive in a Mountcastle trade and I’m not sure the prospect value would be sufficient to warrant extending Mancini and trading Mountcastle. So I think I would rather trade Mountcastle, I’m just not sure it would make sense. Do you have any thoughts on that option?

My best guess is that the distance is that far because the ball hit up pretty high on the wall, but I certainly can’t say that their model is completely accurate. That being said, it’s the best that I’ve found.

My main concern with players like Cowser, and this also applies to Brooks Lee at Cal Poly, is the level of competition he faced in college. He put up very good numbers, but the pitchers he faced weren’t great. I hope he turns it around, but I don’t have the same patience with a 22 year old that I would have with an 18 or 19 year old. I haven’t watched enough Aberdeen baseball to know if he’s struggling with velocity or above average secondaries, but those are the types of things he didn’t see much of in the Southland. Perhaps someone has seen enough to comment.