Sydnor

My main concern with players like Cowser, and this also applies to Brooks Lee at Cal Poly, is the level of competition he faced in college. He put up very good numbers, but the pitchers he faced weren’t great. I hope he turns it around, but I don’t have the same patience with a 22 year old that I would have with an 18 or 19 year old. I haven’t watched enough Aberdeen baseball to know if he’s struggling with velocity or above average secondaries, but those are the types of things he didn’t see much of in the Southland. Perhaps someone has seen enough to comment.

I did not state that it was statistically significant. I merely posted a tweet about the new LF dimensions on a message board because I thought it was of some interest given that we only have one month of data regarding the new LF dimensions. I didn’t say that 1 month of data means that the team should move LF back to its prior dimensions (no need to lawyer me by explaining that it’s actually less significant because team has only played 9 games at home or 11.11% of its home schedule). The LF field dimensions are similar to PNC, which ranks 28th in HRs since 2017 (which can be afforded whatever statistical weight you desire). I don’t know where it will end up, but bottom 5 in the league would not be shocking to me.

“[T]he easiest park to homer at in 2021 to the most difficult in ‘22.”

I wasn’t saying that it was a perfectly analogous, on-point contract extension that would show exactly what the Orioles should pay Means. I was only posting it as an example to show that teams do lock players up I. These situations to achieve cost certainty. If that wasn’t clear, I apologize, but with young kids and Covid, I didn’t have a lot of time to draft a lengthy analysis. I’ll go back to lurking.

When Mile Clevinger needed TJ surgery, the Padres signed him to the following deal to set a fixed cost: I think Clevinger was better than Means prior to TJ surgery, so something factoring in the extra arb year remaining with Means would make sense. Notwithstanding that, I don’t expect the Orioles to do it because they couldn’t avoid arbitration with Means and seem to have no interest in doing anything other than going year to year with players.

I can’t absolutely vouch for whatever model Dykstra is using, but I think the 13 foot height of the wall could be the issue. I understand that keeping the wall at 7’ would’ve required significantly more work and money than what they did by simply removing seats and building a higher wall that works with those existing seats, but I think pushing it back as significantly as they did and increasing the height by 6’ will make LF at Camden Yards one of the most difficult places to hit a HR in the majors (rather than making it neutral as Team Elias has said), and as @interlopersaid, it kind of breaks my brain. I think Dykstra’s model/tweet is representative of that idea.

I don’t know if this is the correct place to share this, so if not feel free to move it or I can delete it. I saw Tork’s HR a couple days ago and then saw this tweet: I have felt that Team Elias overcompensated with the new LF, but I suppose time will tell. I do find it interesting that a ball hit around 105 mph with a 31 degree launch angle wouldn’t get out. That doesn’t seem “fair.”

I love Termarr’s swing, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a pitcher high five a batter that just launched one against him.

In the chat Longenhagen essentially said they didn’t have a problem with ranking him that high because if he ends up in the bullpen, he could be like Hader. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects-chat/ Birdland: Looking at the outcome chart (love the feature btw) for DL Hall. Expected the risk of being a bust to be higher with his injury concerns. Is it low because of the thought that worst-case scenario he could turn into a reliever and be Josh Hader-esk? 1:12 Eric A Longenhagen: yerp

Stiven Acevedo?

You sign a player like Adley to enhance his trade value. Going year to year in arbitration and not having cost certainty beyond the duration of the current 6 years of team competition control provides the team with less leverage. Tampa is signing Wander Franco to a deal that could last 12 years and worth up to $223 million. The Orioles absolutely should try to lock in Adley for a lesser term than Franco, but still significant. You can trade him later if you get the right return.

Tampa is signing Wander Franco to an extension worth up to $223 million. A forward thinking franchise doesn’t just go through arbitration and trade players, it gets cost certainty and enhances a player’s value to the team and on the trade market. Elias should be doing this with Adley (but probably isn’t).

Leandro Arias is another name

Autocorrect is the best. It’s my favorite feature on my phone.

I also voted for Pinto. My recollection is that Tony called him the most intriguing non-Rodriguez and Hall arm in the system. For purposes of this exercise, I suspect he also views him more highly than a radish because of his upside (as do I). I also think Norby lacks the upside of Pinto and has a lot of pressure on the bat.

I love that Tony has Mayo third. I picked Hall because I wasn’t sure he’d do it given that Mayo playing at Delmarva. I think his tools are incredibly exciting. In fact, I think his tools are the most exciting in the system (excluding Adley and Rodriguez). I also remember Tony saying he thought the Orioles might have gotten a steal because the pandemic kept eyes off of Mayo in his draft year, and that in a normal year, he very well could have risen up the draft boards on the spring. I basically want to say I think this is great and my worthless opinion is I’m total agreement with this pick.

I voted for Hall over Mayo. I have no idea who Tony will pick, but I feel like Hall could be the choice because both Hall and Mayo have a fair amount of risk at this point and Cowser played at a low level without showing much power. Despite Hall’s elbow issue and the limited sample, I can’t ignore 15.9 K/9 and 3.5 K/BB. Admittedly, I’ve always been high on Hall because I think his stuff is elite, and worry less about the command concerns. I am very curious to see if Cowser is the pick here and where he will end up because I seem to recall Tony having some concerns regarding Cowser’s power output and potential, and the impact that will have on his ability to get on base as he rises.

Passan speculated that the market for Taylor will start at the Zobrist deal (4 years, $56 million). I personally think he’ll exceed that. Chris Taylor, UT, Los Angeles Dodgers, 31: Teams love Taylor's skill set: He walks, he's got some pop, he runs the bases extremely well and he can play everywhere -- second, shortstop, third and all three outfield positions this season alone. The market for a player like Taylor is well-established: four years and $56 million for Ben Zobrist. And with the Dodgers, Rays, Giants and others illustrating the value of versatility, Taylor will find himself very popular. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/32297475/jeff-passan-early-2021-22-mlb-free-agency-tiers

Cox in Virginia Beach offers MASN. I’d assume they would also offer it in Hampton Roads. (They should still make it easier to stream and I’m not suggesting that you should subscribe to Cox.)

I think Stowers would have a pretty good argument, and without digging too deep, I would probably favor Stowers.

As discussed in this thread, the Tampa model has included signing pre-arbitration players to extensions. Snell also was a pre-arbitration extension by the Rays. Changing the way the Orioles do business should not mean solely that the Orioles will trade players when they hit Arb 2 and Arb 3. It should also mean signing players to extensions before they reach that point because it provides surplus value to the team and makes the players more marketable if you want to trade them. The Orioles cannot continue to go year to year and be risk averse. In my opinion, that strategy (if you even call it a strategy) will not work.

According to mlb.com, the Orioles are the favorites to sign Arias. I assume that the write-up and grades set forth in the linked article are from Jesse Sanchez. Here is the statement linking Arias to the Orioles: Arias trains with Sandy Nin, a member of MLB’s Trainer Partnership Program, in the Dominican Republic. The Orioles are the favorite to sign him. Here are the grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 And here is the link to the top 50 international prospects. Arias is ranked 46th, and further information will be found when viewing his full profile. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/international/ (I’m sorry that I can’t figure out how to change the black background and white text from the copied portions of the article.)

Today’s HR: