Sydnor

Has Elias ever called it a 5 year plan? My recollection is that he has been unwilling to place a timeframe on how long it will take because he is attempting to build sustained success.

I hope you are right about some of the young pitchers in the upper minors. I wasn’t really talking about salary pushing Bundy down the depth chart because that is more of a reason to non-tender Dylan given where the organization is in the rebuild. In terms of the pitchers you referenced, I would be moderately surprised if more than one of them exceeds Bundy’s current 6.2 bWAR after 4 seasons as a starting pitcher in MLB. It seems that Lowther, Wells, and Zimmerman will need to be perfect, Sedlock has real issues with injuries, command after those injuries (based on what others have said), and seems suited for relief if anything in MLB, and Akin seems like a back of the rotation guy who might be better suited for relief. I’m omitting Means because he’s currently on the team. That leaves Baumann who I like (but needs a 3rd pitch) and Kremer who Tony wasn’t high on at all this year until after his last start (and seemed to be more performance than tools that project). I’m not convinced any will perform as well as Bundy, which is admittedly mediocre, through 4 seasons as a starter. Nevertheless, I hope you’re right and think that the guys in the low minors have a much better chance to surpass Bundy if they can remain healthy.

Which minor league pitchers do you think will push him down the depth chart and will any of those pitchers arrive before Bundy qualifies for free agency?

In his last 5 at bats, Renato Nunez has 5 hits for a 1.000/1.000/1.200/2.200 slash line. The approximate 62 at bat cold streak must be over!

Jake Zebron. Based on what I’ve read, he can touch the mid-90s. If I remember correctly, @Luke-OH said that he at least had the makings of a solid curveball. I’m hoping the velocity ticks up so he sits around the mid-90s and the secondaries improve. I loved the video I’ve seen and think there’s something in there.

Here’s where I’m at: I go to a lot of games, so I like seeing him play because he’s one of the few legit major leaguers on the roster. I know people think he makes boneheaded plays, but he’s 5 runs above average on the bases and he should finish around 2.5 WAR. However, if he is projected to get $7 million in arbitration, that’s probably too much given that the difference between 48 and 50 wins is meaningless (unless the extra 2 cost the team a better pick). So, I guess I’m saying it’s nice to have a major league player on the team, but I’d probably non-tender him given his projected arbitration cost.

Why do you think that they selected predominantly college players? Do you think it was due to unfamiliarity or concerns with the current scouting in the organization, because there is more data available on college players, or something else?

Britt got the Manny interview. If you have a subscription to the Athletic, it’s worth your time. Manny reflects on the emotions of returning to Baltimore and the lack of love he felt from management because they didn’t talk to him about an extension after they said they’d call. Manny also says that it was a common theme with the organization because Nick and Adam also wanted to stay. He also indicates that he thought they could’ve let him know he was going to be moving across the country to LA rather than letting him be in limbo. For example, Manny said the following: “There was a lot of situations (in the past) where we reached out, and we wanted to stay there, and they kept saying, ‘Hey, yeah, we’re going to call you back. And we’re going to talk.’ And we’re still waiting for that call. That just sums up the whole summary of why I said that (to SI). It had nothing to do with the fans. I loved the fans. It was unbelievable playing in front of those guys every single night and day. They were always there cheering us on. Whether we were sucking or balling out, it didn’t matter; they supported us through everything.” https://theathletic.com/1042595/2019/06/23/baltimore-will-always-have-a-piece-of-my-heart-on-eve-of-his-return-to-charm-city-manny-machado-reflects/

This was probably a little bit easier because it doesn’t appear to be hit as hard and V-Mart was a much slower runner, but it’s close.

Meoli wrote that the move to the bullpen was innings related, but that it also presents another path to the majors: The change was made to keep his innings under control and possibly give him another path to the majors, and if Friday’s performance was any indication, it’s an intriguing possibility. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-hunter-harvey-20190614-story,amp.html

I think you are referring to Yolbert Sanchez. As far as I know, he has not yet signed with a team.

Mods, if this isn’t the appropriate place for this, please feel free to move it. Meoli did a nice accounting of where the 2018 international signing bonus slots were sent and spent: https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-international-bonus-pool-accounting-20190612-story.html Of note, Stivan Acevedo received the largest bonus and the team believes he would’ve gone for 7 figures if he held out until the 2019 signing period: The highest bonus of the signing period went to Acevedo, a 16-year-old outfielder who got a $275,000 bonus when his signing was finalized in April, according to the baseball source. Acevedo fit the "late bloomer" tag, not because his talents came along late but because he was born Aug. 2, 2002, making him very young for the 2018-19 period. He wasn't 16, nor was he developed enough, when teams used most or all of their bonus pools. Because the Orioles had the money to sign him, they believe they got a player whose present-day talents would have his bonus in the seven-figure range if he waited to sign until the upcoming period beginning July 2, as he was turning a corner. Acevedo is a 6-foot-4 center fielder with feel for the barrel, not much swing-and-miss and the chance to grow into some power.

I believe I may have posted this at the time of the trade, but not everyone was sold on Diaz at the time of the trade. For example, in Baseball America’s article discussing the Machado trade, one scout said as follows: "The Dodgers sold high on a risky guy they don’t believe heavily in,’ said a third scout. "Having said that, I didn’t expect a big package. Rentals don’t command big packages in the game these days.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-scouts-front-office-personnel-viewed-the-machado-trade/%3famphtml I’m hopeful that Diaz turns it around and, with his injuries, I have no idea what his true talent level is, but I’m concerned that he might not be the player that we were hoping to receive in a Machado trade.

Melewski transcribed an interview that Henderson did on 105.7. He indicates that he hasn’t decided whether he will sign or attend Auburn, but I wouldn’t expect him to state otherwise and decrease his bargaining power. https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/06/gunnar-henderson-interview-plus-os-notes-and-delmarva-getting-close.html

Broxton wasn’t on the team in February. I suspect you wouldn’t have seen that post if he was on the team. I just wasn’t excited to watch Joey Rickard play replacement to slightly below replacement level baseball for the third straight season.

I assume you approve of this pick @Luke-OH

@Luke-OH I apologize if you have already commented on this and I missed it, but like Meoli in the copied tweet, my recollection is that Stanford was known for teaching swings that suppress power. Do you know if that is still the philosophy employed by Stanford, and if so, do you think it would add to Stowers’ upside?

I’d like to think that we can all agree that he has 80 hair.

Stewart is staying when Davis is activated on Tuesday and Sisco is coming up.

I voted Rutschman because he seems to be the safest pick, but am I crazy for preferring Abrams over Witt and potentially over Rutschman if Abrams gave a bigger discount?

I have a few questions about Hinds: Do you think he has the most raw power of any high school player? Do you know if he’s singable (my recollection is he has a LSU commitment)? What position do you think he can play adequately? Thanks for all the work on this. I enjoyed the article.

I’m terribly sorry that I said two weeks instead of three weeks. It doesn’t change my opinion. As to your assertion concerning Ruiz’defense, I don’t see it. The only difference is that Ruiz looks better at third than Núñez did. The numbers seem to support this. Renato Nunez’ UZR/150 at 3rd base in 2018: 10.5 Rio Ruiz’ UZR/150 at 3rd base in 2019:10.1. The numbers say Ruiz’ defense is slightly worse than Núñez’ defense at third. I did see a runner beat out a routine ground ball to Ruiz a week or two ago. Nevertheless, it doesn’t really matter because I doubt either one is on the team when he is not making the minimum (unless one of them dramatically improves).

Fangraphs has articles about prospect valuation, and how it plays into trades: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/ Using MLB Pipeline’s rankings Valera is a 50, Oviedo is a 50, and Hankins is a 50. That’s probably too high. Fangraphs has Valera as a 50, Oviedo as a 45, and Hankins as a 40+. While I don’t think this is necessarily the gospel, Fangraphs says that a 50 position player is worth $28 million, a 45 pitcher is worth $4 million, and a 40+ pitcher is worth $3 million. Thus, Cleveland would probably want at least $35 million in surplus value for that package. Mancini was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2017 and -.2 fWAR in 2018. This year he has been worth 1.3 fWAR so far. If Mancini settles in at 2 wins per year, and he’s paid about $20 million over the next 3 years, he will have surplus value of only $15 million. That’s one reason why I think a trade like this is unlikely. That being said I enjoy watching Trey play. I also hope he can bring a package like this to the team and think that despite his limitations he does have some value.

He also has 60 raw power. I don’t think Núñez is part of the team when they’re winning again, but I also don’t see any reason to DFA a player with 60 raw power over 2 weeks in May, particularly because the losses are in consequential. I’m also not sure his defense is significantly worse than Ruiz’. Although Ruiz makes the routine play more consistently, my recollection of Núñez at third was that he was erratic, but had a stronger arm and a better first step, allowing him to get to balls and make plays Ruiz would struggle to make (but I could be very wrong).

I would be shocked if Mancini could net one of Valera, Oviedo, and Hankins, much less all 3. Oviedo is a fringe Top 100 guy for some evaluators, Valera was their big international signing two years ago, and Hankins slid in the draft last year due to medical concerns. As I understand it, they consider those players to be a big part of their future. I also think there’s a decent chance the Indians try to retool on the fly and sell Brad Hand, Bauer, and maybe a couple other pieces.