btdart20

Here's the tiers/order as I have them: "Creme de la creme" 1.1 picks - Jones It seems like the vast majority have him as #1 on the prospect board (not the mocks). Maybe not consensus, but pretty close. I do think they'll have to pay slot here, but that's not a showstopper IMO. Anyone else will be glad to get 1.1 and sign a team-friendly deal. "Defensible" 1.1 picks - Green, Collier, Holliday There's a different case for each of these ranging from highest upside/most power, most likely to hit/stick at SS... Holliday is the one I know the least about, so I probably should bump him below Lee. But I'd rather they pick from here up. "I won't argue against it" 1.1 pick - Johnson Yes, there's a case for drafting him, but from an org building perspective, I'm just not a fan of a 2B at 1.1. That said, there's something to be said for penciling-in Joe Morgan into the daily line-up at 2B. We have plenty of 2B depth now (FWIW, I like Collier's swing better than Termarr's.) "He better be as advertised (and stick at SS)" 1.1 pick - Lee Unless the FO chatter about HS players is smoke/mirrors, I doubt they go with a college guy. Lee could honestly be a great player, but he seems a little boring to me. I tend to lean toward those with some tantalizing skillset. Huge power, big time speed, Power/speed combo, best bat, best all-around, etc. That describes the guys in tiers above. But Lee seems above-average across the board with less floor risk because he's a college guy. I'm hoping for something beyond 'above-average' with this pick. Obviously, I'll be rooting for him if he's the pick, but he better be as advertised. Personally, not interested in anyone else: no SP, no 1B/DH (Berry), no C/DH (Parada)... MLB Mock Draft 2022: Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones go 1-2; no pitcher taken until No. 13; Mets primed to spend - CBSSports.com CBS chiming in with their mock draft with the O's taken Holliday at 1.1. Interesting quote from Ciolek: "We're excited that we get the chance to obviously add another impact player to the system, and picking (No. 1 overall) is great because you will ultimately get to decide who you think is the best player in the country," Orioles director of draft operations Brad Ciolek told the Baltimore Sun in January. "Bottom line is we want to be able to make an impact not only with the first pick, but as of today, we're slated to pick three players in the top (42) overall selections. We're going to make sure that we do whatever we can to find as many impact players not only for those top three selections, but throughout our entire class."

Can you post a video? From video I've seen, he has a stride forward. He does start with a wide stance to begin with, but he gets his weight shifting to support his swing.

I was thinking the same thing. Expectations are a B…

I would have to go digging through one of these threads to find the article, but there was one that said Jones doesn't have plus pull-side power but has a plus power the other way. As I sat there thinking of what that meant, I thought of how Mike Trout's goal is hitting "inside-out" toward the RF/CF gap. Basically, what Jones is said to be strong at. It got me thinking "Does Trout wants to have what Jones currently is doing?" For context, Trout had strong pull-side power coming out of HS. He had to change his swing a bit to use the full field better. Jones will probably need to develop the other direction a bit to get more pull-side power. Which makes me think of Cowser trying to tap into some more power... How do lessons learned with Cowser factor into Elias'/Sig's draft math? Sorry, I have more questions than answers.

Maybe. It would have to be a distinctly different pitch coded as one type of pitch to be the case though. I guess that's the missing piece. Do we have evidence that he's throwing two distinctly different pitches? Sometimes the statcast tools will record a pitch wrong. I may be missing something, but (from my understanding) it's usually one of two reasons: 1) it profiles similar to something else (like a 2-seamer is coded as a cutter, etc.) or 2) there's some type of glitch/field of vision issue that messes with the AI that the computer can't interpret and the pitch is identified wrong. The first scenario is the point above regarding the label of the pitch. If it acts the same to then it's functionally the same from the batter's perspective too. The second scenario is such a small sample size that it wouldn't move the needle on the overall statistics.

Whatever the label is, it still doesn’t change the reality of the batted ball profile.

I went with the Prieto dark horse because: * There's a really good chance we don't sign an FA SS in the off-season because of the train-wreck family Peter is leaving behind. Which means Mateo probably starts the season at SS. * It all depends on how well Mateo and Urias do opening the season as to who sticks in the IF. Neither will block Gunnar, Westburg, or Prieto though. * I think there's a lower chance of service time manipulation for Prieto compared to Westburg. * I still anticipate they want Gunnar to stick at SS. But also think Westburg will get some games at SS. Meaning, what we saw in the minors is what will happen in Baltimore (until they prove it's not working somehow). * Gunnar is SS and/or 3B after his mid-May/June 2023 call-up. * Westburg is SS and/or 2B after his mid-May/June 2023 call-up. But can see Westburg getting more SS starts than others as they want to maximize the offense and not take the defensive hit at 3B. * Urias/Mateo will probably play the Ortiz role in AA (or even Prieto/Burns/Norby at A). Plus, without Santander or Mancini, Mateo will a natural UTIL/4th OFer. * Prieto would really have to hit from now through 2023 ST for him to have an earlier arrival. But the position flexibility of Westburg makes me think he won't hit the 100-game threshold sooner.

He only throws the first pitch for a strike 53.2% of the time (vs. 60.7% avg). At that point, he's done. He's also below league average at getting hitters to chase (25.6 vs 28.3). Hitters sit on the FB and don't chase the SL early. Then when he gets behind and in a hitters count, he serves them up a nice non-moving FB with expected results... (as evidenced by the 10.4% barrel rate). 67% of 88 CH were thrown early in the count. Only 37.5% were in the zone (about avg). 87% of 69 CB were thrown early in the count. Only 40.6% were in the zone (about avg). 50.3% of 195 SL were thrown early in the count. Only 35.4% were in the zone (vs. 42.5% avg). 52.6% of 401 FB (vs 57.5% avg) thrown early in the count. When he's behind in the count he's throwing in 41.6% (vs 29.3% avg). To summarize - I think the O's see the lack of movement in the FB since he's already pitching backwards more often than league average. But those pitches aren't being thrown for strikes. Short of improving his FB movement/velo/control, that's a decent first step of what he needs to do. Maybe throw the SL more center of zone instead of low/away on the first pitch.

This is basically what I'm thinking too (mid/back of rotation type guy). He seems to do a good job of keeping A+ hitters off-balance. Hopefully, we'll see him in AA soon.

I liked this quote by Berriera too: "I think of it like I'm two guys, a split personality," Barriera said of the dichotomy of sitting out to stay healthy while aiming long-term at increasing his velo. "On the mound, I'm relying on muscle memory and attacking instinctively. If it's before the game, just playing catch, or postgame, doing recovery, I'm a totally different guy, thinking about stuff and analyzing the process. You have to separate them." Focus on the reps and process during practice and rely on muscle memory in games.

This mock left out Dylan Lesko assuming he'll hold out for a higher slot and go to Vanderbilt. If he falls to the comp round, he's the guy, then go under-slot in later picks and throw some money his way. (It would be so LOLMets if they took Lesko and couldn't sign him too!) Lots of interesting arms in the 32-50 range as well. And some recent draft darlng/helium guys (Wagner/Jones) at 52/53. Agreed on the preference for an arm at 1.33 and 2.42 pick over Fabian - at least from the crew that mock still has on the board. BPA/not drafting for need/etc/etc, but tie-breaker in the same tier of player goes to the SP for me. Interesting comment/hedge(?) in the 1.1 write-up: Sig Mejdal purportedly loves the skillset Lee brings to the field. And there's a comment on what I assumed about Kumar as well (and ever moreso after his second outing): Rocker is surging up draft boards once again after an overwhelmingly positive first appearance for Try-City this past weekend.

Agreed. Makes me wonder how to clone that type of adjustment?! It would be awesome to see a big-time power guy like Mayo be able to make those same type of adjustments!

It's always nice to have some national pub/recognition. The tweaks are reflected in the updated Board. But I have to roll my eyes when guys like Volpe and Abel are still relatively high. Plus, a guy like Pratto is ranked 50 while Vinnie Pasquantino is ranked 96. The 1-year age different really can't cover that imbalance. On a list like this, I would have also expected to have seen a little slide from Cowser as well. Thanks for posting. 2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

This whole thing is a kick to the nethers... I don't think they'll be allowed to leave Baltimore (a few other MLB teams are ahead of the O's if a team is looking to move). But I can't imagine this bodes well for FA spending this off-season (and actually makes me wonder how Lyles' contract was approved). It feels like John actually wants to keep the team long-term... Hope I'm wrong and the cost-cutting the last few years was to position the team for a sale.

Mayo has a few guys who could be there: Hjerpe at #32 (Oregon State) Campbell #34 (Ok State) Whisenhunt #36 (ECU) - still in it Then you have to go to Cannon at #52 (Georgia) for the next guy. Top Baseball Draft Prospects | MLB.com Callis' most recent mock has Hjerpe going #20 and Campbell #21. Whisenhunt was suspended this year for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug (so Callis didn't mock him). MLB Mock Draft: Orioles go for Jackson Holliday

@Just Regularposted this in the Kyle Stowers thread, think it belongs here too but can't figure out how to copy it correctly outside of the original thread... "Today Fangraphs Playoff Odds give 18 of the 30 Clubs chances of 10% or better, they have 36 1B/DH positions. Today Trey Mancini's 138 OPS+ is 9th out of 37 counting the 36 guys B-Ref considers 1B/DH starters for those teams, plus him. Notable (sub) Replacement Level Killers: Red Sox 1B, White Sox DH, Guardians DH, Astros 1B, Mariners DH, Braves DH, Brewers DH" I'd be shopping the M's system because I think it was ranked second to the O's. Then the Guardians, Braves, and Brewers because they seem to know how to develop pitchers. Mariners Top Prospects (mlb.com) Juan Pinto (17) ranked #27. He was among the top international pitcher signed in 20-21. Bryce Miller looks interesting as well.

Speaking of Bryson Worrell...

Meoli's newsletter where Cowser talked about changing his approach hitting was published on 6/1. No clue when Cowser made that change, but I think 6/1 is a line of demarcation. Yes, we'll have to judge him on his body of work, but I think it'll be helpful to look at what happens from 6/1 onward as well. Since then, the only good news is the 4/3 K/BB ratio and even that is SSS. A paltry .200 babip in that time (for a lefty with good speed) seems to indicate more upside just on "luck." Not enough data at this point though...

It was a good day! Love this defensive swing! 0-1 pitcher's count. Pitcher made a solid pitch (maybe a little high, but great movement away). Stowers didn't overswing or watch it, he just put the barrel on the ball and served it to LF.

In general, agreed. Back-up C should be one of the cheapest positions on the team. But to put it in context: Chirinos is only making $900k this year. League minimum is $700k ($720k in 2023). Is $180-200k the value of a veteran C for the pitching staff? Maybe/maybe not. Either way it's not really impacting whether we can sign a legit FA or not.

Yeah, it makes sense. It's nice to have this type of 'problem' at the top of the system! That's why I cheated a bit and tiered them. Not going to argue against having Gunnar #1.

A lot of pitcher movement this week. As much as I like Gunner, I still have Grayson #1. Really think he's going to the white whale we've been scouring the seas for the past few decades! Grayson, Gunnar Hall Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Stowers Baumler, Prieto

I think that’s where he’ll settle in too.

You had me at Venn Diagram. #swoon Seems like a solid read on it. I was going down the options straddle path mentally, but without the PR spin. No way both sides like the contract if he's not traded.

There's a mutual option. Trey Mancini Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac