btdart20

Is there a way to watch these games?

Are the odds favorable that the O's AND Mancini exercise the mutual option? No. If that's true, then what's the point of keeping even a moderately performing player with even a minimal trade value given that he adds no value heading into next year? The only factor would be fan appreciation for that player (ticket sales) or you're competing now. We're not competing now and the impact of losing fans is much lower when few go now anyway. I just don't see the downside of trading him even if it's for a BOGO coupon at the local Five Guys. But agree that his performance this year has some value to those in win-now mode. Santander is more about how you see his role and team composition over the next few years. I would trade him and continue stacking talent, but it's not a hill I'm dying on.

End of an error.

I doubt Gunnar is in Baltimore this year. He would really have come out of the blocks hitting, but I still doubt it. And I was one who said to promote him to AAA really early this season based on his K/BB improvement. (I wonder if these promotions were as much a psychological salve for the team/fanbase after the Grayson injury? Not to answer, just to ponder...) Some extra factors/dependencies (IMO) are: * Breaking camp OD is dependent on the odds of making the playoffs, it's a service time game (which makes sense for cost-conscience teams in most cases). But a signal would be how active we are signing FA in the off-season (in context of other AL East team odds). * Throw in the draft benefits for teams who have a top 3 ROY finisher, and the O's could stuff the ballot box with a couple of competitors.

Yes (plus I forgot that the TJ was after the draft) vs. who knows what the Mets saw.

I ignore it. But I also find it annoying with no value-add and a waste of time. So, I end up ignoring everything posted by various posters I lump in that type of category. I imagine I'm part of the silent majority who follow the "don't feed the trolls" mantra.

Yeah, Baumler's risk was a known risk and he was a 5th rounder. Kumar's risk is more unknown. Quant guys don't like unknown risks. So, you're probably right.

Agreed. To recap his past: Kumar has a baseline MRI from 2018. When healthy he throws 96-99 range. In 2021, his velo dipped to low 90’s. It did pick up again later in the season. Kumar opted out of the 2021 pre-draft MRI, raising more red flags. So his 1.1 potential took a hit and he slid to 1.10. The post-draft physical revealed some type of damage. Enough that the Mets didn’t even extend Kumar a contract. Agent Boras said When compared with his 2018 MRIs, the medical experts found no significant change. He’s a ticking time bomb. But is he any more than other pitchers who throw 99+? I’m fine with the gamble (assuming he maintains this type of performance) after the first round and bank on surgery in the first two years. Part of the cost of business for high velo/ceiling pitchers. Doubt he’ll be on the board though. https://fansided.com/2022/05/13/kumar-rocker-mlb-draft-independent-league/amp/

A few players I'm interested in how they do: Ivan Melendez (Texas), Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State), Jonathan Cannon (Georgia - eliminated already), Jud Fabian (Florida). Cannon and Hjerpe are both usually mocked in the 1st/early second round. Both could be there for our comp A and 2nd round picks. Ivan Melendez leads D1 in HRs and OPS. Most have him mocked in the 4th-6th range. Came across this link as well: Top Draft Prospects in the NCAA Regionals (prospects1500.com) FYI - Maryland plays UConn tonight at 7 pm in a regional elimination game.

Independent ball depends. Most are MiLB washouts and a few hanger-ons. Every year there's a few former MLBers on the York Revolution (5 this year). Plus, many AAA washouts and a handful of others. Probably somewhere between AA-AAA. York Revolution: Roster

Not me. A step further, as analytically driven the FO is, I bet they have a lot more research and data on that than the vast majority (likely all) of us. I said not to change just to change, so the likely answer is that they don't either.

Seriously though... Constant improvement, always question your assumptions and techniques. Legit feedback loops and an inquisitive mind are important. Don't change just to change because history has weeded out a lot of junk practices. However, that shouldn't stop us from questioning the standard while recognizing that there's a limit to our knowledge on 'why' or 'how' these types of things happen.

ZGLOBEX spray - Zglobex I just so happen to be a licensed distributor...

No disagreement, especially on the odds of moving him away from SS. But he just logged the most games at SS in Red Sox history. (But yeah, context is key.)

Nice! Agree with others hoping for additional moves.

Thanks for bumping this thread. I knew his first start was coming up soon and it looks like he just had it. Kumar Rocker has promising first start for Tri-City ValleyCats (calltothepen.com) He lasted for four innings, striking out six while allowing two runs on three hits. After holding Trois-Rivieres Aigles scoreless over the first three innings, he began to tire, allowing a two run homer to former Braves farmhand Carlos Martinez. However, the outing could be considered an overall positive for Rocker. His fastball sat between 95 and 97 MPH, reaching as high as 99 MPH on the radar gun. His slider showed plenty of life and was in the mid to upper 80s. It was as strong an outing as could have been hoped for. Kumar Rocker impressive in debut as ValleyCats win (timesunion.com) Pitching in front of scouts from at least 20 big league teams, Rocker left the game behind 2-0 before the ValleyCats routed the Trois-Rivieres pitching staff. "I thought he pitched great," Incaviglia said. "For a guy that hadn't pitched in a year, he had good command and I think he made one mistake. He threw a 3-2 slider (to Martinez). Everything else was really good.

Whoever chose sticking with Trey and trading Christian Walker made the right choice.

Hoping they don’t stick to the 90 pitches threshold after rehab. One or two starts to make sure he’s healthy is fine IMO.

When do the Cobb, Davis, Trumbo etc. payments stop?

I'm ok trading anyone. Especially the usual suspects: Mancini, Santander, Lyles, Mullins, Bautista, and Lopez should have some type of value (however minimal). But if we're "buying" for 2023, then Mullins and one of Bautista/Lopez stays. Guys I would say are keepers: Rutschman, Grayson, Gunnar, Hall, Hays, Westburg. Guys I would say are more valuable to the O's than elsewhere: Mateo, Akin, Tate, and would probably put underperforming/injured MiLB guys in here (Kjerstad, Baumler, Cowser, Mayo, Pinto...). Means probably falls here too because no one's buying an injured SP. Lyles could fall here if we're building for 2023, but trade him if we're looking beyond 2023. Mountcastle probably falls here. I put Mateo here because I like his athleticism and positional flexibility. MiLB guys I'm fine with trading/shopping: Stowers, Norby, Rhodes, Haskin, Rom, Bradish. Honestly, I'm not as well educated, but was really just looking at org position depth (OF and 2B depth) compared to the 2023 FA class (lots of SPs and SS). Stowers gives me the Gallo-vibes. Haskin seem solid, but empty. On the fence still with Rhodes. I do like Norby a lot, but Prieto/Westburg/Vavra/Hernaiz... Bradish could be really good, but if we're buying for 2023 then we likely have signed a FA #1 SP to go with Lyles/Grayson/Zimmermann (or have traded Lyles and can spending a #2 SP FA). 2023 would have: SP - FA #1 (Manaea? Musgrove?), Lyles, Grayson, Zimmermann, scab until Means/Hall. RP - Akin, Tate, and Bautista C - AR 1B - Mounty 2B - Urias and Westburg at some point. SS - FA 3B - Scab until Gunnar CF - Hays, Mateo OF - Scab FA (decent cheap lefty options), Mateo, McKenna, Diaz and Neustrom - obviously the OF would shift from being a relative offensive strength, to a relative weakness. But we'd be gaining elsewhere, even defensively. 2023 could be a wildcard contender adding $50-55m payroll. Adding $70-75m would get a 2 TOR SPs and a top SS. Payroll would stay under $100m (I think). Plus, drafting Jones at 1.1. And I wouldn't be shy about drafting multiple injured arms either. Especially if they are first round talents that have fallen much later. It's a crap shoot beyond pick 30 anyway, so why not go with an upside gamble that the arm recovers.

And the sides of the bases are bigger by 3 inches, which reduces the distance from 1st to 2nd/2nd to 3rd by 6 inches. It wasn't unintended. It was purposeful because they want more SBs in the game. It's an exciting play.

Where did they rank Ezequiel Tovar? They've been neck-and-neck stat-wise this year.

Agree in that it's likely a multitude of variables and appreciate the power lifter comparison. It's not a natural motion and pitchers push that to the limits every pitch. IIRC, it's part of why the O's limited guys like Arrieta and Gausman from throwing their best pitches (after the Bundy arm issues). I do think there's something to the 'build up arm strength' approach though. But think build arm strength is more about a lifetime of throwing (i.e. young kids on daily/weekly pitch counts) that limits the ligament/tendon adherence/muscle strength. But instead of professional pitchers blowing out arms, we would see kids building those characteristics and/or blowing out arms.

Assuming it's a grade 2/muscle pull, then I think he'll get a few more innings this year. But there's a part of me that thinks you may be right...

Mayo needs to at least pretend to not be fishing for an audience! "No inside information" yet switches to chalk after going with conspiracy earlier? This is my third mock, and I had yet to put the best player in the top spot. That changes now as I do think it's quite possible the Orioles just take the best player on the board in Jones. With absolutely no inside information on this, I get a bit of a feel that the top pick will be Jones MLB Draft Combine 2022 details - more helium after 6/14-6/20.