btdart20

If we are a .500 team for the rest of the season, we're still 77-85. We would have to be a .600 team for ROS, to get to 88-74. So, the most likely 2022 ceiling is still missing the playoffs. So, in general, I'm still in the stacking talent mindset with an eye to compete in 2023 and consistently beyond. Lyles and his team option should have decent value. I do see the value of keeping him to stabilize the rotation for 2023 as well, but next year's FA SP is pretty solid too. Lopez and Bautista are at peek market value this year, so trade them. We should keep Tate and Akin. I would trade Mullins or Hays, not both. Lean toward trading Mullins. Mancini and Santander can be traded. Stowers is ready for OF and Nottingham is knocking for DH. Mateo may have some market value, but I'd be fine holding him as well. His position flexibility (SS/OF) leaves the door open to trade an OFer and/or sign a FA SS heading into 2023. Interesting tilt to the poll responses. And interesting non-responders considering the chatter as well.

And what positions are we buying/selling?

Proverbial 'pitching backwards' is his key. Not getting ambushed on a first pitch FB by throwing strikes with a breaking ball.

Grayson has been ready all year. But the service time rules are part of the game players and owners agreed to. Neither side was on the side of more competition.

“Manipulation, for lack of a better word, is good.” Think that was Gordon Gecko’s multiverse baseball GM.

It’s funny that the pitching mindset is that it’s ok to give up solo HRs but the hitting approach seems to mostly about hitting solo HR. Weird spot in the industry trends.

Aberdeen is in one of the test conferences for some of the rules changes. Pitch clock, pick off attempts, base sizes too I think. It’s not all MiLB. Half is a control group.

Nah. Even I have my standards. Double as they may be.

And Bill Mazeroski also has one of the most, if not the most, iconic HRs ever. Career work be damned, it's about the moment in time for that guy. What every kid dreams of... Insert Curt Schilling plug here...

I think Hall will be in Baltimore in August/after the trade deadline as another step in the #risingtide.

Agreed. But what @interlopersaid is why I found it interesting. Serious question: At what point do org guys like Dorrian (26 w/ .504 OPS), Grenier (25 w/ .641 OPS), Bannon (26 w/ .695 OPS) lose semi-regular ABs? Do you think that happens when Gunnar is promoted? Grenier is the SS "back-up". As you said, Bannon, Nevin, and Gutierez are currently splitting 3B (and other positions). I can't imagine any of them would prevent Gunnar from getting his reps at SS or 3B.

Interesting how much Gutierez is playing 1B at Norfolk (5 of 12 games).

So, you're saying it's no different than my 10U players?! Kids swinging when there is no physical way the bat will touch the ball while others will stare at a lob down the middle!

Top Baseball Draft Prospects | MLB.com 10 arms out of 15 players currently ranked in the 30-45 range (plus the next 7 are arms too). So, there should be plenty of options with the #33 and/or #42 picks. Tristan Smith - Compares to former Orioles first round pick and PG All-American D.L. Hall. Tristan Smith Class of 2022 - Player Profile | Perfect Game USA

Hadn't heard his name in a while, so I went looking. IL for a swollen eye. Weird. Norby's batted ball profile has shifted a bit from last year as well. More in the air and a jump in Pull% (33.8 to 44% - and nearly matching decrease of Oppo%). Naturally Babip drops, with the AVG. Drop in BB%, K%, and BB/K. Notable ISO gains. He's obviously trying to tap into a bit more power as well - like Cowser, Westburg, Henderson. Only thing really surprising (to me) is 4 SB to 3 CS. Nearly everyone in Aberdeen is stealing and not getting caught. A few places had Norby listed as average/50 grade speed. Still more to learn from Norby, but really didn't expect the 42+% CS rate in A ball.

From what I've read in various sources, he didn't throw the CH often in HS. It could be the coaches pitching philosophy (trust your heat and use the curve as the off-speed). But it's supposed to be at least an average pitch that he needs to be more consistent with. I'm really excited about Baumler being on the mound. His path this year is among my most hopeful MiLB stories to follow (of many). IMO he's not quite a dark horse, but more a hidden gem. He is the next wave/tier after GR and DL. Obviously, he's got more projectability risk (age/health) than a guy like Bradish, but I think Baumler's upside is as high.

They have 4 OFers they're working in (Cowser, Williams, Rhodes, Cook). Plus, a good amount of competition for DH ABs as well.

The Jon Singleton who was a prospect with the Astros years ago? Wow…

Earning their money by taking their pot shots at everyone's favorite punching bag...

I went low (probably too low). I think he'll be fringy in reality, but he doesn't have the best reputation and writers frequently vote with their heart vs. their head.

Just read that Shores added 15 MPH on his FB over the last couple of years. The recent trend for the O's is to take a guy who has something special, whatever that is. And build a development plan around that. I do think they use a few of the top 5 picks to take an arm or two and add some risk to the draft portfolio.

Ivan Melendez... "The Hispanic Titanic" Ivan Melendez College Leagues Statistics & History | Baseball-Reference.com Prospectslive has him at 126 (4/5th rounder), I have to think he's improved his draft status this year since it's very likely he wins the NCAA player of the year award. (If you're an anti-bat-flipper, then he's not your guy!) 2022 MLB Draft - Top 500 Prospects — Prospects Live His 25+% K% in 2021 is concerning. But his K% in 2022 is 15%. Leads all of NCAA in SLG with a .941 (#2 is .867). Focusing on the Big 12, his OPS sits at 1.472 (Jace Jung is #2 with a 1.152). Feels Texas Slugger Ivan Melendez Evaluates Himself Ahead Of 2021 MLB Draft (baseballamerica.com) From last year's College World Series...

Agreed on the top 4 in the top 30 prospects in baseball. Some really good top line talent if these guys keep taking the path they're currently on! But would add that I do like the top 10ish guys as solid floors as well. After that, it starts to weaken with some wildcards in the mix as well like Baumler, Kjerstad, Diaz, Tavera, Haskins...

Good post. Lyles' value to the Orioles eating innings/resting the BP (especially as the young guys get promoted and eventually shutdown when they start hitting their season IP limits) could be greater than the value other teams would be willing to trade for. I still think we'll trade him, but that's an extra layer Elias should consider.

103 and 105 OPS+ is disappointing. They are core hitters in the line-up. If our best hitters are slightly above average, that's not a good sign. Mounty seems to be a tough luck case a bit for his power numbers. His xBA is .324 vs. actual BA of .258. xSLG is .565 vs. actual SLG of .403. But those expected stats are really out of line from his prior to years. Average EV is 91.4 (3 MPH higher than league average) and HH% sits at 47.8 vs. league average of 35.6. His BB% is anemic. But he'll get his counting stats. Mullins' pull rate has gone up 18% (from 32% to 38%). And IF/FB ratio is jumped nearly 100% (from 14% to 25%). All while his BB% has dropped by nearly 33% (from 8.7 to 5.7). Feels very similar to Westburg and Cowser. He's gotten power hungry and needs to get back to going with the pitch. Not sure Mullins will get back to 2021 numbers, but there's upside in there as well.