btdart20

Not at 1.1. Agree it could be in the comp or round 2 pick if he's still on the board.

The golden rule: He who has the gold, makes the rules. Us plebes can eat cake.

All the trades that have previously been floated have been more trading away proven talent to get prospective talent. (Mullins, Mancini, Santander, Means...) Sounds like you're suggesting trading away prospective talent to get proven talent? Is that correct? What top ranked ammo are you trading away? Who are you trying to get to supplement the team?

Nope. Just because it makes you feel bad/frustrated, doesn't mean he should care. He was hired to do the job he/Angelos have agreed to. The only opinion that matters more than Elias' is Angelos'. You and I can have ours, but I don't want executive decisions based on mob rule.

I saw him two weeks ago when AR was in Aberdeen (no Cowser in the game I went to). Mayo struck out a few times against Phillies top SP prospect Mick Abel (no shame in that). But I don't recall any real good ABs for him either though. Long swing with a ton of power. And he tried to tap into that power in every swing I saw. He'll get his HRs and Ks. Looked good with his glove and he has a great arm. He had a strong long throw behind 3B on target. Mayo's a big man but standing next to AR he looked thin. Another year or two of building up muscle and Mayo will be a beast!

I wasn't wowed by his arm. But maybe it was because Mayo has a cannon, and Burns' arm just didn't wow in comparison. He's got good speed and have had a polished approach to the ball fielding. I think he has some upside. The game I went to, only Rutschman made more consistent quality contact.

GB/FB ratio is .81 (8th) and BB% at 8.4% (14th) make for a solid floor. GO/AO is 7th. Any amount of uptick in K% would help the bottom line runs allowed. Room for improvement and grounds for celebration as well.

Or you could spin it as he's in an 8-way tie with an OAA of 1 ranging from 11th through 18th. And the highest rated one with a 0 at Runs Prevented. Call that above average if you want. But his defense isn't a difference maker. It's good, but not something that sets the O's apart for now. We're just grateful to have something positive in the IF skill positions. He's our SS until he's not. There will likely be a few good SS FAs in the off-season. Dare I say, Mateo might be a good trade chip? Phillies, STL, NYY...

Statcast Outs Above Average Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com) Maybe/maybe not. At least by OAA, he's pretty average for SS this year. And this has been a good 31 game stretch for him. (Much better than Odor's -4 at least.)

If Mateo stays as SS then there needs to be major upgrades at other more secure positions. Mateo is solid and contributing but he’s not a difference maker. We can’t just be league average at most positions to be a contender. If we want to be a legit contender then we need to raise the bar.

Seriously? Look at the list of teams. Only the Red Sox and Cubs have any history of big spending…. Probably a batch of rookies or injuries had a greater impact. 2011 Dbacks - JJ Putz Russell Branyan Wily Mo Peña… 2012 As - Jeff Fiorentino Manny Ramirez (age 40) BartoloColon (39) 2012 Os - The list is long but laughable - Galarraga, Dontrelle Willis 2013 Red Sox - David Ross, Victorino, Uehara, Dempster, Drew, Napoli 2013 Indians - Mark Reynolds, Nick Swisher, Rich Hill, Giambi (42), Michael Bourn 2014 Angels - Volstad, LeBlanc, Joe Smith, Ibanez (42), Carlos Peña, John McDonald 2015 Cubs - Jason Hammel, Lester, Motte, David Ross 2017 Dbacks - Jeff Mathis, Rodney, Iannetta, Hank Conger, Brian Marist, Kevin Jepsen, Jorge de la Rosa 2018 As - Yusmeiro Petit, Lucroy, Cahill, Brett Anderson 2019 Twins - Schoop, Ronald Torreyes, Cruz, Blake Parker, Martin Perez, Martin Gonzalez, Adam Rosales I didn’t look to see how successful the signings were. But Lester and Cruz look like the headliners.

I don't buy the rumors/industry officials either. And agree that the finger means nothing for his draft ranking at this point in the college season. Talk about an under/over-slot test case! Berry really solidified his draft floor this year by improving his K%. I'm not on board with Berry at 1.1, but is among the best college bats. IIRC, most mocks are putting him in the 5-10 range.

Fine, sure. But the question is 'does it really matter?' Odor has been Jokey Smurf OPS against righties. Owings' only claim to fame offensively has been his 'lofty' OBP of .310. Martin has a hot streak in AAA and 1st round pedigree going for him. The "plan" for IF this year was to see if any of these guys proved anything. Mateo looks like the only one of the opening day roster to stick. The rest can be churned in the meat grinder. At the end of the day it's still scrapple with a chance of no gristle.

What are you doing with Watkins? I've seen enough to move on. It was only a matter of time for the regression to begin and runs start to score against him. Next start would be against the Yankees at OPACY. 4 options bouncing around my head: 1) Watkins starts. 2) Someone else opens for a bullpen game. 3) None of the placeholder AAA guys are really forcing the issue. 4) Grayson! It's time.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hernaiz creep up into the top 15-20 by year end. Pretty good start for the young man!

Another nice nugget on that website: 2022 College Baseball Data - Google Sheets

Most interesting line in the 1.1 write-up: In addition to Holliday, Baltimore has rolled in deep to see Johnson, Druw Jones, Elijah Green, and Brooks Lee. The author's bio (economist/author) looks interesting.

Meh... I just hope Urias still gets ABs for a little while longer. Not sure he's the answer, but the .281 babip, 92 MPH EV, and 49.2% HH% say he's got more under the hood than the top line stats have shown.

There's much more to determining the historical success/failure of using some type of under/over-slot draft strategy than what I've seen (on this thread or otherwise). I get the impression that 'it depends' is the safe answer so far on whether or not a team should use BPA or a version of the under/over-slot strategy. Draft class, org depth, developmental strengths, not just for the O's but our competitors too, and a host of other variables. It's like investing and building a portfolio. Do you go all in on a player/stock you think is prime to hit? Or do you dollar-cost-average in to fill you're buy order? It depends on your risk profile and goals. 1.1 should nearly always go BPA. Same for the first few 1st round picks. How much better can it get for the player if they don't sign? What are the odds of them sitting out a year and being drafted higher/signed for more the following year? Depending on the variables, the later 1st round picks could increase the value of the under/over-slot strategy. I'm interested in the quant analysis that goes into the modeling. I'm sure it's got some game theory and model portfolio analysis combined with normal baseball stats/probability. I agree that the O's have a bit more depth than we've had previously. It definitely has to do with hitting on/developing some talent later in the draft. Whether or not they could have signed them otherwise is debatable. Probably yes, but not a lock. Regarding the 2022 draft: Agree that with the org depth, draft class, 1.1 spot, additional comp picks, and need for top end talent lends itself to going BPA at 1.1 especially.

It looks like more than a hot streak to me. Even his .261 was a floor based on his 14/12 K/BB rate and a .294 babip. His first 20 games are pretty average/expected (even unlucky) with that type of K/BB rate: .250/.427/.438 (.865 OPS/.277 babip). Being a lefty with above average speed, a babip higher than .300 wouldn't be a surprise. His last 7 games have been a hot streak: 3/3 K/BB, .550/.600/.800 (1.400 OPS/.588 Babip). Nothing really screams odd on his batted ball profile (though it's tough with SSS, development, etc.). Increased GB/FB rate and a little higher Pull%. I think his mental approach to hitting has improved (maybe the similar philosophy that Cowser/Westburg are adjusting to?). Not saying he can't revert back or go through a slump, but the first 20 games look like a solid floor.

Past performance does not guarantee future outcome (and all the other regulatory disclaimers)! If the pitching can keep a measured marathon pace instead of a frantic burnout sprint from prior years...

Jordan Westburg - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball His Oppo% is 18.8% in 2022 vs 31.7% (AA) and 36.0% (A+) in 2021 (similar trend with Cowser as well). Westburg's BB% has jumped from 10.8% to 15% and IFFB% has doubled to 22.7%. There are some similarities with a more patient approach to hitting and swinging for more power/elevation. That's the shift in the hitting philosophy.

Derp, sorry. I should have read that correctly in my mind... Thanks for clarifying. Awesome! Sounds like he has a guy he wants! I understand wanting to spread out the time crunch for the draft and trade deadlines... But every team has the same deadlines (though some will be more active at the trade deadline than others). This is where he has to trust the scouting team he has in place as much as anything.

This last winter was our first 'full go' at it, like Frobby said. Yes, we have some guys, but the scope/funding and intentionality has changed. There is quite a gap between what the O's had (and even now have) and the 'brand' awareness of, say, the Dodgers. But 1000-mile journey starts with the first step. That said, I bet the full impact won't be felt for a decade or longer as that 'brand' gap closes (because spending is more regulated now than it was years ago internationally). I do think we will pull better talent in (and away from other teams) than if we didn't have a presence at all. And osmosis will average talent out better across the league. A 6-year timeframe seems pretty close to start seeing a legit impact at the MLB level. Many of these guys sign at age 16/17. Really special players (Soto) can move fast. But if the average age of MLB promotion is 24-25ish, then that's 8 years. Assuming development, I can see Prieto being in Baltimore the next 1-2 years. Everything I've seen and read on him seems to point to a very professional approach and a solid hit tool. And he's also 23. He's probably the leading edge from the 'full go'.

Assuming that's pretty close to a direct quote, "very good year to have the top pick" is playing mind games with me! The simple reading is that he has a guy he thinks that has separated himself from the group (that's what I think he means). But the mind worm is there are a few guys that he can slot? The HS player comment rhymes with what other sources are saying. What does he mean by 'too heavy draft for positional players'? Rounded in the middle and not a lot of top-end strength?