Jim'sKid26

Does he suddenly become a 1B prospect moving forward. Apparently the bat plays higher than the catching skills. Overall value goes down if he moves off C but he might make the MLB faster as a bat first prospect. If his raw power translates into a 30 HR 1B who can otherwise rake, does he shelve the Tools of Ignorance?

So with the injury updates of Means and Bradish, are they now to be considered the O's pitching upgrade at the trade deadline? Seems to me that both will be stretched out at about that time to be expected to go 5-6 IP/start by then if everything goes as planned with their respective rehabs. Might be a real shot in the arm (pardon the pun) to the staff to have them back by the middle of the season.

I'm always interested in what kind of value an ex-player brings to coaching. The game has changed radically in the past 7-10 years. Coaching staffs, with the Braves being an intriguing exception, are getting younger and data scientists are those who can interpret the data generated are having a very large say in how the game is played. Palmer and MacDonald are entertaining color analysts, but what do they bring to the table as coaches? I ask because I truly don't know. Seems like a question for @Just Regular or @btdart20.

Thanks, Drungo. That's high praise coming from you. Appreciate the kindness.

So you are basing your opinion on a single case study? The journal article provided is about professional pitchers, mostly MLB, and there is a considerable literature available if you wish to search for it. Its up to you.

The most significant element in this discussion is not available to anyone but Bradish, his physician and the folks in the O's front office who have access to his medical information. What is the degree of injury to his UCL and surrounding tissue? The fact that they are starting a throwing program early after a PRP injections implies a strain that is either grade I or II. PRP is not effective and therefore not used on Grade IV strain/tears. Most Grade III tear/strains require extensive rest and usually end up with operative treatment. If he has a grade I or II strain, PRP and a rehab program can deliver good results without surgery. I know there is a lot of doom and gloom on the board today but it may be a bit premature. Here's a quote from a recent journal article: "Ultrasound-guided UCL PRP injection, a minimally invasive technique, has gained traction due to its potential to facilitate tissue healing and repair. PRP has demonstrated success in returning pitchers to throwing quickly and successfully 73-96% of the time following medium-grade UCL tears or UCL insufficiency. In prior studies, use of PRP to treat partial tears resulted in an 88% success rate in returning athletes to play after an average of 12 weeks." Ref: 1) Mills FB 4th, Misra AK, Goyeneche N, Hackel JG, Andrews JR, Joyner PW: Return to play after platelet-rich plasma injection for elbow UCL injury: outcomes based on injury severity. Orthop J Sports Med. 2021, 9:2325967121991135. 10.1177/2325967121991135 Case study: https://www.cureus.com/articles/213637-from-dugout-to-the-mound-a-tale-of-platelet-rich-performance#!/

Does Kenley want to be a closer? Seems like the O's have one already. Do you think he would be ok sharing the role?

Thanks for all the research @Frobby, yet another awesome thread. None of our current outfield were highly thought of prior to being drafted. As you stated, Mullins was a 13th rounder out of Campbell, not a baseball powerhouse. Hayes was a 3rd rounder out of Jacksonville and Santander was signed by the Cleveland Indians as an international free agent in July 2011. Conversely, Heston Kjerstad (1.2) and Colton Cowser (1.5) are both very high draft picks with significant pedigrees. Additionally, Bradfield Jr. was also a first rounder (1.17) out of a very good SEC school. It makes me hope that the current crop of outfield prospects might be able to exceed what Mullins, Hayes and Santander have accomplished.

They have slightly different meanings. Its a matter of agency. Foreordination = Agency or choice Preordination = No Agency or choice Foreordination: One is ordained or called to something and may still decline, either willfully or through one's actions. Preordination: One is ordained or called to something and will be that something no matter what an individual might want or might otherwise choose.

Helpful vocabulary builder: read all of @Frobby's posts and look up the words you don't know. Foreordained: (of God or fate) appoint or decree (something) beforehand. "progress is not foreordained" Awesome!

One question beyond the issue of who has an option left is who misses bats. Baker, 27.4 K%, 51 Ks in 45 IPs (10.2 K/9), 4SFB= 95.7 Webb, 24.6 K%, 57 Ks in 53.2 IP (9.5 K/9) 4SFB=94.5 MPH Baumann, 22.3 K%, 61 Ks in 64.2 IP (8.4 K/9) 4SFB= 96.4 MPH Tate (2022), 20.5 K%, 60 Ks in 73.2 (7.3 K/9), Sinker = 94.0 MPH Irvin, 20.2 K%, 68 Ks in 77.1 IP (7.9 K/9), 4SFB= 92.2 MPH Vespi, Heasley and Akin didn't have enough MLB IP to serve as a reasonable comparison. The hole in the BP is late innings, high leverage RP who can get you a K when you need it. Baker and Webb appear to be the best options here if you are going by past performance. YMMV.

Just because I am a very proud Titan, I would like to point out that while Phil Nevin never had the professional career that Jeter did, (few have), however he was a very accomplished college player. He was the Golden Spikes award winner, the Baseball American and Collegiate Baseball Player of the Year and he won the Big West Conference Triple Crown in 1992. Dude was a stud. Fun fact: he was an All American kicker for CSUF his freshman year. It was not a complete stretch to say Nevin was quite a bit more accomplished than Jeter when he was drafted. Go Titans, Tusks Up!

30 Hrs in limited action as a DH? at OPACY? Really? My point is that one of the posters on this board had endorsed the acquisition of Martinez by quoting his projected HR total for 2024 at 30. I see that as highly unlikely as he will be playing half his games at a park that suppresses HR for RHH. Now if we are using this spray chart: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/j-d-martinez-502110?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb I count 17 HRs to right and center field. So let's say half of the other 16 are hit in OPACY, they are likely outs. He's now about a 25 HR guy if he hits as well as he did in 2023 and he gets 430 ABs. How likely is that? And this is also not accounting for the fact that the opposing team will be pitching in such a manner as to encourage him to pull the ball. I could be very wrong but I don't think he is worth the money Boras is likely to extract as a part-time RHH DH for the O's.

Right handed power hitters without elite power are not likely to perform at OPACY quite like folks want them too. Projecting JD to have 30 HRs as the, likely part-time, DH for the O's is pure fantasy. Look at the effect Mt. Walltimore has had on Mountcastle over the last couple of years. Now imagine that effect on 36 yo J.D. Martinez. It won't be pretty.

Is this a guy you take a flyer on? If he's healthy he could be dominant. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/matt-barnes-throws-for-scouts.html "Time will tell whether Barnes can ever recapture the form he showed from Opening Day through early August in 2021, though with a shoulder injury and notable hip surgery separating present-day Barnes from that peak version, it feels like something of a long shot. But even if Barnes never gets back to fanning more than 40% of his opponents, there’s a middle ground where he can be an effective late-inning reliever. "

@Tony-OH, if the emphasis were primarily on defensive capability as opposed to offensive matchups, who do you think wins those respective battles?

Well said, as always!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-brewers-return-for-corbin-burnes/ Whether you like Fangraphs or not, this is a good read, IMHO. I like this paragraph to sum up the current Brewers situation: "This trade marks the unceremonious end to the most recent era of Brewers baseball. Brandon Woodruff’s late-season injury, the departures of Craig Counsell and David Stearns, and finally this deal remove many of the main characters from the past half decade of the franchise. Conversely, the wave of young players who are just getting their big league footing should make the Brewers a fun team to watch scrap for a wide open NL Central crown. Of all the projected members of the Brewers’ starting lineup, only Christian Yelich and Hoskins are over 30 years old, and Adames is the only other starter over 27. William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, and Ortiz make up a formidable young core of hitters whose careers are just getting started." I think the Brew Crew could still be a contender in the NL Central.

I'd like to see a serious run at a couple of trades for relievers. David Bednar from Pittsburgh was mentioned in trade rumors last year. He's the kind of guys the O's should target. He is using his four-seamer more to great success. In 2022, hitters hit .243 against his fastball and that’s dipped to .181 in 2023. He’s also getting hitters to chase a higher percentage of the four-seamers thrown outside the zone. In 2023, his O-Sw% has climbed from 34.4% in 2022 to 41.2% in 2023, which put him in the 99th percentile. The Pirates just signed Chapman so they might be willing to listen to an offer for Bednar. He will be costly, however. Pittsburgh will want a ton of talent for him. Also, Bryan Abreu from Houston. He's not a closer so he might not be as expensive as some others but he is very good. His ERA for 2023 was 1.94 and his WHIP is 1.08 which is improved from 2022. He also had 90 Ks in 65 IP, good for a SO/9 rate of 12.5. Last season he had 88 Ks in 60.1 IP.

By who's estimation? Moraga is a nice town.

If the Brewers are holding a fire sale as is reported by several outlets, I hope the O's can target Devin Williams. He was the NL reliever of the year in 2023. He is owed $7M for 2024 and has a club option at $10.5 M for 2025. He makes the bullpen much better and he is not likely to be anymore expensive than Burnes, IMHO.

He is actually a really big deal at St. Mary's College where he went to school. They are retiring his number and he is in their Hall of Fame, just so you know! https://smcgaels.com/news/2024/1/25/baseball-base-teahen-burnes-to-have-numbers-retired.aspx

Thoughtful extensions to players who are early in their career seems like a reasonable strategy for this club. Burnes is gunning for a Gerrit Cole level of compensation or even more. I'm not convinced that is good value for a team that has multiple young players who make up it's core. It will be very interesting to see how the pitching prospects mature over the next 2-3 years. It will also be fun to watch Burnes pitch this year.

So Burnes will be 30 at the end of next year when he is a FA. He will play all on 2025 at 30 as he has an October Birthday. So what would be a reasonable extention foe him? Comps: 1) Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 9 years, $324 million (2020-28); Age 29 season to begin, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS. 2) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – 7 years, $245M (2020-26); Age 31 season, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS 3) David Price, Red Sox, 7 years, $217 million (2016-22); Age 29 season, one CYA, 5 time AS 4) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 7 years $215 million (2014-2020); Age 26 season, 3 time CYA, one MVP, 4 time AS 5) Zach Greinke, D-backs, 6 years, $206.5 million (2016-21); Age 32, one CYA, 2 GG, 3 time AS 2025 best case scenario for Burnes (he is both an AS and wins the CYA in 2024) Age 30 season, 2 CYA, 4 time AS. So I would speculate that a reasonable offer to Burnes for a FA contract next year would be right around Strasburg money: 7 years and $250 M. Any thoughts on that?

This is exactly what Elias needed to do. I am overjoyed. Great move. I hope everyone stays healthy.