Keith Law Top 50

[Hutman]

Keith posted his top 50 prospects for the draft today. Its Insider content, but here is the link:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7794760/2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects

To summarize the top 5, he has Buxton one, Zunino and then the 3 college arms

Appell, Zimmer and Glausman. He also has SS Carlos Correa in there as well and predicts a top 4 of Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino and Appell.

What does everyone think of another Stanford pitcher?

[allstar1579]

I wouldn't be crazy about Appel but who knows for sure. I'd rank my personal preference of college pitchers as

1. Marcus Stroman

2. Zimmer

3. Appel

4. Gausman

Probably sounds nuts to some but Law kind of backs me up on this one.

Duke right-hander Marcus Stroman would go in the top five picks this year if he were only about five or six inches taller, but at 5-foot-9 or 5-foot-8, he's facing an uphill battle to convince scouts that he can be more than a reliever in the majors. Yet if we ignore his lack of height for the moment, he has essential ingredients for a starter -- an above-average fastball, an out pitch among his secondary offerings, a weapon to use against lefties, and an extremely aggressive approach along with self-confidence that practically drenches the mound when he pitches.

Gausman might have the best stuff and ceiling of the four but I think command will be his undoing. Appel has no wow factor for me. He has 55 K's in 57 IP so far this year. Stroman's fallback is as a lights out closer but I like the kid's mechanics and think he stays a starter. Of course, that's without knowing anything about a changeup, which he'll most likely need to be a successful starter.

I'll let you know on Stroman tomorrow night, I'm going to see him live.

[allstar1579]

Cool. I'm be waiting for the report.

I'll try to get something posted when I get home. If anyone is interested Duke @ MD at 6pm tomorrow night, and the play by play is usually streamed live on WMUC sports.

I'm kicking around tweeting some updates while I'm there, depends on how busy I get. @allstar1579

[allstar1579]

Stroman is really, really good. He's got one of the filthiest sliders ever.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, just checked out the boxscore. If I'm not wrong, Maryland's offense is nothing to right home about. Considering that, not as dominant as some of us other starts. Still, he goes deep into games, and his control has been very good. Looks like 8 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K's. Not bad.

MD's offense is sneaky. They usually do better against the other team's top pitcher, and they have faced some good ones this year. They have a couple bats that will get on base and a couple that have some pop though. Stroman was just flat out dominant the first 6 innings, the FB was about 93-95 most of the night with good control and a little bit of late tail, and his slider was NASTY, hard late break away from RHB, ton of movement. Guys were chasing it all night, it was hit put away pitch. His change was really good too, but he rarely threw it, which I didn't really understand, but he's got 3 ML pitches for sure, I'm not as good labeling them in the plus/abv avg range, but it looked like 3 potential plus pitches to me.

He falls off towards 1B a little, but is athletic enough to make up for it, making a really good play on a slow roller down the 3B line for an out. His mechanics are pretty clean, and he throws with very little effort. He's going to be a pitcher that 5-10 teams say, I wish we took that kid in the first.

[Stotle]

MD's offense is sneaky. They usually do better against the other team's top pitcher, and they have faced some good ones this year. They have a couple bats that will get on base and a couple that have some pop though. Stroman was just flat out dominant the first 6 innings, the FB was about 93-95 most of the night with good control and a little bit of late tail, and his slider was NASTY, hard late break away from RHB, ton of movement. Guys were chasing it all night, it was hit put away pitch. His change was really good too, but he rarely threw it, which I didn't really understand, but he's got 3 ML pitches for sure, I'm not as good labeling them in the plus/abv avg range, but it looked like 3 potential plus pitches to me.

He falls off towards 1B a little, but is athletic enough to make up for it, making a really good play on a slow roller down the 3B line for an out. His mechanics are pretty clean, and he throws with very little effort. He's going to be a pitcher that 5-10 teams say, I wish we took that kid in the first.

Where do you think he's being selected? 5-10 teams w/buyers remorse seems unlikely to me, but maybe we have him projecting to different spots.

[Can_of_corn]

Appel threw 149 pitches last night.

Anyone think that type of workload might cause him to drop?

[Stotle]

Appel threw 149 pitches last night.

Anyone think that type of workload might cause him to drop?

No chance in hell, unless it's accompanied by decreased velocity or injury.

[allstar1579]

Where do you think he's being selected? 5-10 teams w/buyers remorse seems unlikely to me, but maybe we have him projecting to different spots.

I was thinking around 15-20, with the top 5 happy with their picks and a couple teams from 5-15 rethinking it.

[Stotle]

I was thinking around 15-20, with the top 5 happy with their picks and a couple teams from 5-15 rethinking it.

Got it. I'd be surprised if he lasts to 15 in this class, but who knows.

[allstar1579]

Got it. I'd be surprised if he lasts to 15 in this class, but who knows.

I like him a lot, but I think teams are ultimately going to back away from his size. Like you said yesterday, I'd have a hard time picking him at 4 unless it's part of a bigger plan, but if we were at say 7 or 8 I'd be much more vocal about taking him.

[Stotle]

I like him a lot, but I think teams are ultimately going to back away from his size. Like you said yesterday, I'd have a hard time picking him at 4 unless it's part of a bigger plan, but if we were at say 7 or 8 I'd be much more vocal about taking him.

The issue, to me, is that it's debatable his stuff plays as a shutdown guy against ML hitters, due primarily to plane. That said, you could drop him into a bullpen right now and he'd hold his own. I might buy six years of a good 8th inning guy/fringe-stopper for a mil or two.

I disagree with people who would like to start him -- it isn't what I'd do, personally. His value, to me, is in the fact that there's nothing much left to develop as a reliever.

[allstar1579]

The issue, to me, is that it's debatable his stuff plays as a shutdown guy against ML hitters, due primarily to plane. That said, you could drop him into a bullpen right now and he'd hold his own. I might buy six years of a good 8th inning guy/fringe-stopper for a mil or two.

I disagree with people who would like to start him -- it isn't what I'd do, personally. His value, to me, is in the fact that there's nothing much left to develop as a reliever.

Yeah I completely understand. I think that's why he toyed with a curve last night but only threw it like 3 times. It was a huge, hard breaker that had great left-right movement, but at field level you could see there wasn't enough up and down to it.

I hadn't really chimed in on the RP/SP debate because I KINDA see both sides. I lean RP too, but he's got those 3 REALLY good pitches so it's tempting to want to try to start him. If I had to choose one way or the other I'd say RP too because I think he could be a really good one. He just needs to trust his CH inside on RHB more because neither the FB or the SL work there and he's not backing them off the plate which lets them reach and poke the SL when he tries to throw it just off the plate.

[Stotle]

Yeah I completely understand. I think that's why he toyed with a curve last night but only threw it like 3 times. It was a huge, hard breaker that had great left-right movement, but at field level you could see there wasn't enough up and down to it.

I hadn't really chimed in on the RP/SP debate because I KINDA see both sides. I lean RP too, but he's got those 3 REALLY good pitches so it's tempting to want to try to start him. If I had to choose one way or the other I'd say RP too because I think he could be a really good one. He just needs to trust his CH inside on RHB more because neither the FB or the SL work there and he's not backing them off the plate which lets them reach and poke the SL when he tries to throw it just off the plate.

I just don't buy into "three pitches" being the criteria for a SP. I think a SP needs three pitches, but just because you have three good pitches doesn't mean that you should be a starter.

[allstar1579]

I just don't buy into "three pitches" being the criteria for a SP. I think a SP needs three pitches, but just because you have three good pitches doesn't mean that you should be a starter.

Yeah I get you. I made the exact argument against it a couple months ago talking about how I thought Klein should be a RP, so I guess I'm a little hypocritical in that sense. I think he can absolutely be a RP with 3 good pitches, and I think like you said he's not going to get enough plane to be good enough at the ML level, maybe through AA, but I think he'd hit the wall there.