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Saturday Afternoon Baseball Thread 4/28


OFFNY

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

TIGERS

Drew Smyly - LHP (0-0, 1.13 ERA)

YANKEES

Freddy Garcia - RHP (0-1, 9.75 ERA)

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ANGELS

Dan Haren - RHP (0-1, 4.07 ERA)

INDIANS

Jeanmar Gomez - RHP (1-0, 1.93 ERA)

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ROYALS

Bruce Chen - LHP (0-2, 2.52 ERA)

TWINS

Jason Marquis - RHP (1-0, 7.15 ERA)

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MARINERS

Kevin Millwood - RHP (0-1, 7.04 ERA)

BLUE JAYS

Brandon Morrow - RHP (1-1, 3.71 ERA)

O

NATIONAL LEAGUE

BREWERS

Marco Estrada - RHP (0-0, 2.45 ERA)

CARDINALS

Kyle Lohse - RHP (3-0, 0.99 ERA)

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ASTROS

Lucas Harrell - RHP (1-1, 3.97 ERA)

REDS

Johnny Cueto - RHP (2-0, 1.78 ERA)

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YANKEES

Derek Jeter – DH

Nick Swisher – RF

Robinson Cano – 2B

Alex Rodriguez – 3B

Mark Teixeira – 1B

Curtis Granderson – CF

Andruw Jones – LF

Russell Martin – C

Eduardo Nunez – SS

Freddy Garcia – RHP (0-1, 9.75 ERA)

TIGERS

Austin Jackson CF

Brennan Boesch RF

Miguel Cabrera 3B

Prince Fielder – 1B

Andy Dirks – LF

Brad Eldred – DH

Alex Avila – C

Jhonny Peralta – SS

Ramon Santiago – 2B

Drew Smyly – LHP (0-0, 1.13 ERA)

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    • A lot of teams (likely driven by analytics) are putting their best overall hitter at 2 (like the Yankees batting Soto 2, and the Dodgers batting Shohei 2) to maximize ABs while guaranteeing that a high-OBP guy is batting in front of him to give him opportunities with men on base.  That's probably what we want.  It seems logical considering how thoroughly debunked small-ball in the first inning has been.  Rutschman at 3 is fine.
    • Realistically I think Adley as the leadoff guy is the best lineup for us but if he has trouble batting leadoff in half the games because he can't get his catcher's gear off fast enough then I get it.   Cowser has continued to be incredibly patient, and if Adley can't be our leadoff guy then Cowser is probably our next best option.  Of course Cowser also hits a lot of bombs, so it'd be interesting if he goes on another heater.   If Cowser gets off the schneid then Cowser leadoff and Gunnar at 2 could be incredibly potent.  I don't think Cowser is actually playing that badly, he's just been running into some bad luck.  And he's starting to wake up a little bit anyway.
    • Agreed, appreciate the stats. Gunnar isn't a leadoff hitter - he's a prototypical #3 hitter or cleanup hitter. Hyde writes poor lineups, and Gunnar hitting leadoff has been one of the consistent problems with the offense this season. Gunnar hitting mostly solo shots is both a consequence and reflection of this offense's flaws - the O's have too many low-OBP hitters in the lineup (hitting in less-than-optimal spots for the most part) and are too reliant on solo homers to generate runs. At least Hyde has started hitting Westburg leadoff against LHP, which is progress, but Hyde is way too stubborn and too slow to make the correct adjustments. He's very similar to Buck Showalter in that respect.  Anyway, I look forward to Hyde waking up and moving Gunnar down to #3/#4 against RHP.  
    • While the return on the Tettleton trade wasn't ideal, 1: I don't think you can really expect a 30 year old catcher to put up a career year and then follow it up with another one, and 2: we had Chris Hoiles who played quite well for us following Tettleton's departure.  If we had forward thinking GMs we probably would split them at C and give them DH/1B/OF games on their non catching days, which is what Detroit did with Tettleton to prolong his career after 1992.  (He was basically the same hitter from 1993-1995 but he stopped catching with regularity so his WAR was much lower.)   The Davis trade was so completely undefensible on every level, not the least of which because we already had a player who was at least as good as Davis was on the team, but he didn't fit the stereotypical batting profile of a 1B.  At least today teams wouldn't be so quick to dismiss a 10 HR first baseman if he's got an OBP of .400.
    • The Glenn Davis trade was so bad it overshadowed another really bad trade in team history. The Orioles traded Mickey Tettleton that same offseason for Jeff Robinson in part because Tettleton had an off year in 1990 with a .223 batting average and a .381 slugging percentage. Except Tettleton drew 116 walks making his OBP .376 and his OPS+ was 116. Jeff Robinson was coming off a 5.96 ERA in 145 innings pitched. I have no idea what the team was thinking with this trade. Robinson did manage to lower his ERA in 1991 to 5.18 his only Orioles season. There's no way this trade is made today in the age of analytics. Tettleton meanwhile put up 171 home runs and an .859 OPS for the remainder of his career. 😬 Just a bad trade that doesn't get talked about enough thanks to Glenn Davis.
    • Your best POWER hitter should get the most at bats with men on base. Gunnar is third on the team in OB%, but far and away the leader in SLG%. Heck, right now he has the highest SLG% in the AL. Yet he has the fewest ABs with men on base of any of our regulars. Batting him leadoff gives Gunnar more opportunities to hit HRs and score runs, but fewer opportunities to drive in runs. 75% of Henderson's HRs have been hit with the base empty. Compare that to Ohtani (62%), Tucker (60%), Ozuna (57%), Naylor (50%), or Judge (46%). 
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