Will the O's be willing to top 100 million for Chris Davis?

[Hank Scorpio]

The more I look at this list I compiled of first basemen contracts, the more I think Scott Boras will advise Chris Davis to play out the next two years and go on the free agent market, rather than getting locked up at a discount. These contracts are just insane, but teams keep doing them.

Yup, if he continues down this .900+ OPS path, someone will give 30 year old Chris Davis a 7 or 8 year deal and regret half of it.

Similar to Josh Hamilton's, I'd say.

[SilentJames]

I think that this year's homer numbers are largely an aberration. That is to say, i think he goes back to being 30-38 homer guy with a reasonable shot at 40 every year. And you want to consider that when you start talking extension. I mean look what happened to Maris after he hit 61.

[srock]

Yup, if he continues down this .900+ OPS path, someone will give 30 year old Chris Davis a 7 or 8 year deal and regret half of it.

Similar to Josh Hamilton's, I'd say.

Chances are he will not stay on this .900+ ops path. He takes one fastball of the wrist, like Nick last year, and it costs him huge.

To me the risk/reward for a 27 year old with 2 arbitration years looming with a breakout year, says to sign a 6/80 contract ASAP.

[wildcard]

Boras represented Fielder, who earned $11 mm and $15.5 mm in his 2nd and 3rd year of arbitration. He represented Teixeira, who earned $9 mm and $12.5 mm. He represented Howard, who earned $15 mm and $18 mm.

In arbitration, Davis will not match Howard, or come that close IMO. Howard hit 153 homers and knocked in 431 runs in the three years that preceded that deal where he got $15 mm in what would have been his second year of arbitration. He'd been Rookie of the Year, an MVP, and had finished in the top 5 of MVP voting two other times. He was a much more accomplished player than Davis, no matter what Davis does this year.

None of these three (Howard, Teixeira or Fielder) were eligible for a 2nd year of arbitration. They were all under contract at that point. So Davis big year coming in his 2nd arbitration year is probably going to earn him more than they made with maybe the exception of Howard.

Howard made 19m his 2nd arb year and 20m his third.

Tex 9m for the 2nd and 12.5m for the third

Fielder 10.5 for the 2nd and 15.5 for the third

According to Cots Contracts

So for the 2nd arb year Davis advantage is he is eligible for arb. He should get more than Tex and Fielder and less than Howard. 12m to 14m is very possible.

For the 3rd year it will depend of his production but again not as much as Howard's at 20M but Fielders 15.5 may be close.

Just look at the long term contracts these guys signed.

Fielder 9/214

Tex 8/180

Howard 5/125 but he was already under contract for two year which really made it 7/164

The O's would be darn lucky to sign Davis early before his 2nd arbitration year for 6/110 plus option years.

[wildcard]

There's no question that 40 homers and a .900+ OPS is worth at least $20 mm in the free agent marketplace. But players in their 2nd year of arbitration eligibility typically make about 60% of their free agent market value.

60% of 20M is 12M

[Aristotelian]

1. Let's wait for a full season and see how much Chris regresses. His AVG has already started to fall, and with that you would think is HRs will too. The worst time to be thinking about this is during a major hot streak.

2. If we can extend him for a reasonable amount to cover his peak years, go for it. Something like waroriole suggests would be perfect. But I doubt Boras will fall for it. From his perspective, CD will make the most money in his career if he plays hard for two more years, then convinces somebody to sign him as a free agent for 8 years at $20 million-plus. If he does a 5 year deal for $80 million now and starts to decline at the end, he will be 32 and looking at a series of one year contracts until he can't play anymore. Maybe he makes $100 million over his career that way. Boras is going to find a way for Chris to make $200 million over his career. If Boras's plan is to go for the big bucks, I would rather get as much as we can out of Chris now, and then let him become the next Pujols or Ryan Howard for somebody else.

3. Depending on where we are in the standings at this time of the year in 2015, think about what CD might be able to get us in trade. CD could land us somebody's top prospects. I would not mind getting two more years out of him at the peak of his career, then trading him if we could get a Strasburg or Puig type of player in return. Four years at the peak of his career for pennies, getting prospects to build for the future in 2015. That might be the best way to maximize CD's value rather than a 6 year deal now or God forbid an 8 year deal starting in 2016.

4. For the sake of comparison, Boras had Prince Fielder sign for 9 years/$214m beginning in his Age 28 season. That's probably what he is looking for to extend CD right now. 5 years/$100 million would be a bargain if we could get it.

[SpinJr]

3. Depending on where we are in the standings at this time of the year in 2015, think about what CD might be able to get us in trade. CD could land us somebody's top prospects. I would not mind getting two more years out of him at the peak of his career, then trading him if we could get a Strasburg or Puig type of player in return. Four years at the peak of his career for pennies, getting prospects to build for the future in 2015. That might be the best way to maximize CD's value rather than a 6 year deal now or God forbid an 8 year deal starting in 2016.

Somewhat sad to think like this but your probably spot on with this option.

I will be hoping for a fair contract extension though!

[DrungoHazewood]

The O's would be darn lucky to sign Davis early before his 2nd arbitration year for 6/110 plus option years.

If you define "darned lucky" as the opportunity to have a ludicrous contract we'll be begging the Dodgers to take on you may have a point.

[Ommaculate]

Chances are he will not stay on this .900+ ops path. He takes one fastball of the wrist, like Nick last year, and it costs him huge.

If this happens, I hope he charges the mound and body slams the pitcher.

[RussellStSports]

Chris Davis has to regress at some point this year so I don't think this will be as difficult once it comes time to sign him. If it does, I can't see us keeping him for a $100M+ contract. I'm hoping it doesn't come to that though and we can sign him for 15M a year or so.

[TradeAngelos]

Somewhat sad to think like this but your probably spot on with this option.

I will be hoping for a fair contract extension though!

Small market teams who struggle financially have to operate like this unfortunately.

Just the hand we were dealt.

[Redskins Rick]

Not sure the Fielder to Davis is a fair comparison.

Fielder had 230 HRs prior to being signed by Detroit and six of those seven years, he was already established as a proven bat.

Davis just emerged last year as a proven bat.

[Redskins Rick]

Small market teams who struggle financially have to operate like this unfortunately.

Just the hand we were dealt.

This is not a SMALL market town!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Can_of_corn]

This is not a SMALL market town!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They are a small market town.

They do however have a RSN.

[Babypowder]

This is not a SMALL market town!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Weird how we just got a pick in the competitive balance lottery then. I sincerely thought only the 10 smallest markets were allowed in that.