Calling for Rain all day Friday.

[Loophole]

Honestly, I might prefer we get rained out and force 5 straight games. Yost wouldn't be able to lean on the invincible Herrera/Davis/Holland buzzsaw every night and maybe Gausman can pitch a gem, but that's the homer in me. And I definitely don't think we benefit from playing in the rain. Britton said he was slipping out there in game 1. The Royals' running game thing is way overblown.

[SteveA]

After looking at the forecast, I don't see the game being played. 80 percent chance of rain from Monday morning til about 2AM the next day.

Can we stop giving these weatherguessers so much credit?

So tomorrow night's game has as much chance of being played as Friday nights did, you mean?

The one where there wasn't enough rain to make me put up my poncho until about the 6th inning and the field barely got damp.

The weather guys say it's going to rain. Sometimes it rains. Sometimes it doesn't. And we have a 22 page thread about it. Well, I guess it gives us something to do.

[Crazysilver03]

Can we stop giving these weatherguessers so much credit?

So tomorrow night's game has as much chance of being played as Friday nights did, you mean?

The one where there wasn't enough rain to make me put up my poncho until about the 6th inning and the field barely got damp.

The weather guys say it's going to rain. Sometimes it rains. Sometimes it doesn't. And we have a 22 page thread about it. Well, I guess it gives us something to do.

To be fair, that storm on Fri/Sat had a high bust potential and the models never really came into a good consensus. This storm front is different and there is a high risk of severe weather in the MidWest associated with it, the remnants of which would reach here on Wednesday afternoon.

[SteveA]

To be fair, that storm on Fri/Sat had a high bust potential and the models never really came into a good consensus. This storm front is different and there is a high risk of severe weather in the MidWest associated with it, the remnants of which would reach here on Wednesday afternoon.

OK, I'm no weather expert. But in this thread I see:

Wednesday afternoon: If you look directly at the evening forecast tho.. 90 percent chance of rain. Looks worse every time I look at it, so Im gonna stop looking at it.

Wednesday night, from Bob Turk: Hope we can get that game in on Friday night , but doesn't look too good at this point weatherwise.

Thursday morning: NOAA is saying 90% chance of rain and rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 an hour possible for Friday Night.

Thursday around noon, Marty Bass: Well we can pretty much tell you that there is only a small chance of playing ALCS game 1 without delay. Nuts. Let’s see how we get to that solution.

Could there be a chance “we get it wrong?” Look, the big variable is the Earth itself, there are no absolute guarantees in Nature. But it would take a BIG hemispheric change to pull us out of that rain band. NUTS.

Sat after ALCS game 2 has no issues, and Sunday will be the best of the weekend days.

If the models show a "high bust potential", that to me means that you should never be tossing around a number like 90%. The whole point of "high bust potential" as a phrase seems to indicate to me that there is greater than a 10% chance that it won't happen. These guys only make themselves look bad if they are going to constantly through out high probabilities that do not come true.

The Orioles at Yankees game that was to be Derek Jeter's last home game was the exact same thing. A couple days in advance it was being talked about in terms of high certainty that the game wouldn't be played. And then it was fine and the game was played.

There are so many examples of this type of thing happening. I go back to the day the Ravens played Denver in 2001? in the playoffs. They were talking about a heavy snowstorm that day, tossing around terms like a foot, etc. I was going out of town Sunday night after the Raven game. I actually listened to the forecasts and dropped my dog at the kennel a day early on Saturday for fear I wouldn't be able to drive there Sunday.

Got up Sunday morning the sky was 100% bright blue. We never got a single flake, after they scared us with talk of a foot.

I have little to no faith in weather forecasts. Sorry. I have found the value of a 2-day-out forecast in terms of making any type of reasonable planning is practically useless.

[nattyboh]

I have little to no faith in weather forecasts. Sorry. I have found the value of a 2-day-out forecast in terms of making any type of reasonable planning is practically useless.

The forecast made by NWS wasn't bad. You are listening to TV weathermen about whether or not the game will be played. That's really not their job. Their job is to tell you what the weather is going to do. It rained. They said it was going to rain. The issue was always the timing, and maybe the actual energy the storm had. The day before the models wanted to make it more potent than it turned out to be, but the models dropped that by mid-day Friday at the latest.

They get it right a lot higher than You think. The European model nailed Hurricane Sandy with the recurvature into NJ. A storm had never done that, but the model consistently, after many runs of it, showed the storm making a right then left hook. Eventually the other models got on board, but the model showing it put NJ in the expected cone, whereas there was a chance people would have had about 48 hours to prepare for a hurricane had the model not called the apparent 1/500 year event of Atlantic hurricane making a left turn. That's not a lot of time, even for people who are used to hurricanes. As it stood, it gave the authorities and astute civilians 5 days.

Warm fronts move slow. They create light rain. Complicating the mess is the fact that the front was stalled. Even if the American models had the computing power that the EURO does, I'm not too sure to what extent nature will still be doing unexpected nature things. But the unexpected things are smaller in magnitude.

It is not a weather professionals problem that You do not respect what they do. Its absurd that baseball fans, who take 3/10 as being fantastic success rate, will not understand the inherent error probability in making predictions about weather.

Tomorrow will likely not be played. Could be looking at tornadoes across the southern plains. the expected moisture looks to be spectacular- several inches across a very large area. Models have been showing this severe storm outbreak for awhile. The set up is different.

also, with the Derek Jeter game thing. You had a bunch of buffoons talking here and nationally about it because they wanted to rubberneck at the #mayhem the rain out would cause. You also probably had Oriole fans with many sour grapes about DJ and Yankees. That's called wishcasting, and the NWS again nailed that forecast but nobody noticed.

Tuesday not a lock either if you buy the NWS in Missouri.

onday night the surface and upper low shift east of the

area precipitation will light up but continue as models all concur

that we will get into stratiform rain with a well defined

deformation band. The question on Tuesday becomes how quickly does

the rain move out. Models still have some disagreement on how

"progressive" the upper low will be in push east. The GFS and GEM

are the more progressive solutions moving the upper low into the

Lower Ohio River Valley and bring precipitation to an end by Tuesday

afternoon. The EC and GFS Ensemble Mean however, both look very

similar keeping the upper low across eastern Missouri on Tuesday and

into Tuesday which would keep precip chance going through Tuesday

and into Tuesday night. Have sided with the slower EC solution at

this time based on model trends in slowing this system down.

[Crazysilver03]

The radar for KC is absolutely terrible. I wouldn't be surprised if the field is unplayable even if it isn't raining tonight.

[nattyboh]

The radar for KC is absolutely terrible. I wouldn't be surprised if the field is unplayable even if it isn't raining tonight.

the NWS in MO might be aware there is a baseball game or something.

With this track of the surface low and the upper-level PV, there

will likely be a dry slot established from southeastern Kansas

through central Missouri that may clip portions of our southern to

eastern forecast area. This doesn`t bode well for any outdoor events

this evening as the deformation band would likely be slowly rotating

through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Although by this

evening the precipitation intensity may be waning.

The other story with this system will be the winds. Have increased

winds about 5kts. So even if the precipitation intensity may be

waning, with the surface low tracking just east of the area, a very

tight pressure gradient is expected to lead to winds in the 20 to 25

mph range, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. This windy, wet

forecast would make being outside even more miserable. But it`s not

snow, so we have that going for us.

[Dipper9]

the NWS in MO might be aware there is a baseball game or something.

Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph?

Cruz pops up to the shortstop....and its outta here for a Home Run!

[Crazysilver03]

the NWS in MO might be aware there is a baseball game or something.

Hahaha that last line "it's not snow so at least we have that going for us."

[Nigel Tufnel]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Kansas City waited 29 years to host an ALCS game. It may have to wait one extra night. <a href="http://t.co/TVQikE8YeE">http://t.co/TVQikE8YeE</a> <a href="http://t.co/8w0U3cyyrl">pic.twitter.com/8w0U3cyyrl</a></p>— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) <a href="

">October 13, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[OFFNY]

o

[video=youtube;xM7BRP7uzFk]

[SeaBird]

Wet track should help the O's.

"Wet track"? NOAA is saying up to 3 inches may fall. They'll be up to their ankles on the "wet track".

[Crazysilver03]

Honestly, I might prefer we get rained out and force 5 straight games. Yost wouldn't be able to lean on the invincible Herrera/Davis/Holland buzzsaw every night and maybe Gausman can pitch a gem, but that's the homer in me. And I definitely don't think we benefit from playing in the rain. Britton said he was slipping out there in game 1. The Royals' running game thing is way overblown.

Same for the O's. Can't rely on Miller every night. Probably don't go for a multi-inning outing if you want him fresh the next day.

I wonder what the rules are player substitutions. I know if a player is injured they can be replaced immediately but will have to sit out the next series if a team advances. Maybe Kelly Johnson pulls a hamstring today and Ubaldo Jiminez magically appears. Or O'Day is actually injured and gets replaced with TJM.

[Guest]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Was just told by a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/KC?src=hash">#KC</a> radio host he anticipates that the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash">#Royals</a> will be called by 4pm today. Weather is that poor <a href="https://twitter.com/1057TheFan">@1057TheFan</a></p>— Sports With Coleman (@sportswcoleman) <a href="

">October 13, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[MDK02]

Damn, another night without baseball...