Would either of Wei-Yin Chen or Bud Norris receive a QO?

[Crazysilver03]

I don't see the harm in extending a QO to both of them in 2016 (assuming they are both around). Just about all of the time, FAs refuse QOs and thus the Os could get one or more compensatory draft picks if either of them signs with a different team. The only way that Os management doesn't extend a QO is if a long-term contract is iminent.

Supposedly, Os management didn't extend a QO for Markakis because it looked as though a long term deal was on the verge of being done. Unfortunately, that has not happened. If Markakis winds up signing with a different team, then the Os have to go without a draft pick for the signing.

Paying each $16M, plus Ubaldo at $12M and Tillman possibly at $8-10M sounds like a terrible idea.

[weams]

You get a a QO, You get a QO, EVERYBODY gets a QO!

No one, even a relief pitcher has ever accepted a qualifying offer, No one.

[backwardsk]

Paying each $16M, plus Ubaldo at $12M and Tillman possibly at $8-10M sounds like a terrible idea.

Do you think either would choose to accept and not test FA. I guess we'll need to see how Santana and Liriano do this winter, but I don't see Norris and Chen significantly behind those two.

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[Number5]

I would love to see them both put up a season that would make a QO justified.

[weams]

Do you think either would choose to accept and not test FA. I guess we'll need to see how Santana and Liriano do this winter, but I don't see Norris and Chen significantly behind those two.

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No one, has ever accepted.

[Crazysilver03]

Do you think either would choose to accept and not test FA. I guess we'll need to see how Santana and Liriano do this winter, but I don't see Norris and Chen significantly behind those two.

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Oh I agree. I definitely think both will head to free agency. Chen is a no doubter for a QO. Norris might be a little bit more interesting of a case.

But the post I quoted said "I don't see any downfall..." and I pointed out that paying $50M to the starting rotation is a huge downside.

[24fps]

No one, has ever accepted.

One day someone will, and then apres lui, le deluge.

[BohKnowsBmore]

His 2016 contract may end up being 150% higher than this year's. We've been very fortunate that we've been able to keep the cost of our rotation relatively low.

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Not necessarily an original point on my part, but I think part of the key to is remaining competitive over the long haul is managing the cost of the rotation. Locking Tillman down for the long term in the next year or two, riding our gonzos arbitration years, working in gausman, bundy, Harvey and dealing with ubaldos deal as our 4/5 (hoping for more) should keep our rotation reasonable for 3 or 4 years. Ubaldo deal would end right as some of those young guys start to get a bit more expensive.

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[BohKnowsBmore]

Oh I agree. I definitely think both will head to free agency. Chen is a no doubter for a QO. Norris might be a little bit more interesting of a case.

But the post I quoted said "I don't see any downfall..." and I pointed out that paying $50M to the starting rotation is a huge downside.

To be fair, if that's a one year balloon, it's much more manageable than long term structural commitments.

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[Nevermore]

Paying each $16M, plus Ubaldo at $12M and Tillman possibly at $8-10M sounds like a terrible idea.

Are you assuming that both QOs (for Norris and/or Chen) would be accepted?

[Crazysilver03]

Are you assuming that both QOs (for Norris and/or Chen) would be accepted?

In the scenario I posited, obviously.

Weams can constantly post that no one has accepted an offer, but they have only been handed out to the cream of the crop of the free agent class. They also go up approximately $1M per year, where as the value of a "win" is going up at approximately half that. $16M in 2015 is different from $13M in 2012.

It is conceivable that the Orioles hand out 4 offers next off-season.

[AlbionHero]

Are you assuming that both QOs (for Norris and/or Chen) would be accepted?

Chen certainly won't accept a QO. He's likely looking at a 4 year/56 mil kinda deal on the market. Norris is a bit more iffy, but he could probably get a 3 year/36 mil kinda contract on the market so he'd likely turn it down as well.

[AdamK]

Not necessarily an original point on my part, but I think part of the key to is remaining competitive over the long haul is managing the cost of the rotation. Locking Tillman down for the long term in the next year or two, riding our gonzos arbitration years, working in gausman, bundy, Harvey and dealing with ubaldos deal as our 4/5 (hoping for more) should keep our rotation reasonable for 3 or 4 years. Ubaldo deal would end right as some of those young guys start to get a bit more expensive.

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Locking Tillman down is going to cost us, no? If anything (and I am no Dave Duquette) trading Tillman within two years seems more likely. It also is why that Marlins rumor involving CD for their cost controlled pitcher is intriguing, since we may need to extend the years of cheap, up and coming pitchers into the rotation.

Gausman doesn't cost much, but will when the time comes. Bundy is not here, but when he does come he will eventually cost us when the time comes. So those two give us breathing room for the time being. Gonzo and Chen have less time than Tillman before they'll cost us, so they may be first to go elsewhere (because they have value and/or may be expensive to us), Norris will force our hand sooner if not mistaken, and Ubaldo already is very expensive.

*my memory may not be up to snuff with contracts. Apologies in advance.

I guess I figure the rotation needs to 'rotate' talent that is as expensive as it was this past year or else the organization will be in danger of running out of room to dedicate money in other areas. "Small market" swing dancing.

Tillman, to me, seems like a guy who will be an affordable get in the next 24 months by *other teams* if we find ourselves in sell mode. And her may need to be dealt in order to restock guys like Tillman just 4 years earlier in their own development.

[SteveO]

Considering nobody has ever taken the QO, I would offer both to be honest. I doubt either of them takes it unless one of them regresses this season.

[SteveO]

In the scenario I posited, obviously.

Weams can constantly post that no one has accepted an offer, but they have only been handed out to the cream of the crop of the free agent class. They also go up approximately $1M per year, where as the value of a "win" is going up at approximately half that. $16M in 2015 is different from $13M in 2012.

It is conceivable that the Orioles hand out 4 offers next off-season.

Cruz was coming off a suspension for PEDS with a ton of question marks around him ...thus the 1/8 contract he got. He did not think twice about turning it down.

I hardly would call Cuddyear a cream of the crop FA. I would offer any guy who you could expect to pay 11-12 million plus to over multiyear deal. Chen and Norris are both guys who if they repeat lasts seasons performances will get multiyear deals for good money. Even if they accept you are now overpaying by say 5-6 million or so but only limiting your liability to one year.