Nice interview with Dan Duquette

[wildcard]

Dan was on 1057 the Fan

http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2014/12/05/dan-duquette-on-losing-cruz-markakis-miller-and-more/

Few things stuck out for me.

1) He thinks Dariel Alvarez can be a every day player. May need some more seasoning but expects Buck to take a look at him in ST. Dan surprised that Alvarez did well in CF. He has an arm equal to Adam Jones.

2) Looking for outfield depth. He doesn't talk about adding a DH or replacing a bat. He is looking for a outfielder. He doesn't sound like Morales or Morse are in his thinking.

Just guessing but maybe he feels that Walker can fill the DH role sometime this coming season. Not necessarily to start the season.

3) Looking for Bullpen depth. I would take that to mean he still wants a left handed reliever that can get out righties and lefties. Someone to replace Matusz.

4) Looking for a catcher. Probably a backup catcher. I wonder if Brian Ward makes it through the draft he fills the bill or if Dan want someone more experienced. He makes it sound like they are not confident the Matt will be ready to start the season.

Looking at what is on the free agent market I don't think there is much out there that fits what Dan wants. He will probably look at trades. Especially with the 40 man roster full or close to it.

I don't see any blockbuster trades. Dan likes to trade from his minor league depth. Players not named Bundy, Harvey, Walker or Alvarez.

[luismatos4prez]

2) Looking for outfield depth. He doesn't talk about adding a DH or replacing a bat. He is looking for a outfielder. He doesn't sound like Morales or Morse are in his thinking.

Just guessing but maybe he feels that Walker can fill the DH role sometime this coming season. Not necessarily to start the season.

3) Looking for Bullpen depth. I would take that to mean he still wants a left handed reliever that can get out righties and lefties. Someone to replace Matusz.

4) Looking for a catcher. Probably a backup catcher. I wonder if Brian Ward makes it through the draft he fills the bill or if Dan want someone more experienced. He makes it sound like they are not confident the Matt will be ready to start the season.

Looking at what is on the free agent market I don't think there is much out there that fits what Dan wants. He will probably look at trades. Especially with the 40 man roster full or close to it.

I don't see any blockbuster trades. Dan likes to trade from his minor league depth. Players not named Bundy, Harvey, Walker or Alvarez.

There aren't many good DH options out there, Morse is the only really good hitter that could fill that role and he's refused to be a DH in the past. It would be easier to find an outfielder and shift Pearce to DH or get a rotation going.

There's no way Christian Walker is our DH. He would be replacement level at best at DH.

I think the Orioles are going to trade a SP and prospect(s) for one of Kemp and Upton go with whichever of them and De Aza in the OF, and plug Pearce at DH.

Bud Norris and a C prospect for Kemp and $30M would work for me.

[SteveO]

There aren't many good DH options out there, Morse is the only really good hitter that could fill that role and he's refused to be a DH in the past. It would be easier to find an outfielder and shift Pearce to DH or get a rotation going.

There's no way Christian Walker is our DH. He would be replacement level at best at DH.

I think the Orioles are going to trade a SP and prospect(s) for one of Kemp and Upton go with whichever of them and De Aza in the OF, and plug Pearce at DH.

Bud Norris and a C prospect for Kemp and $30M would work for me.

All this Kemp and Upton nonsense is just that. The Dodgers are not going to provide the salary relief the Orioles would need without Bundy or KG in the deal, the Braves are likely to also want one of Bundy, KG or Harvey for Upton and I cant see DD giving up one of those guys for a one year rental.

Here is what I see happening. A guy like Evan Gattis would make some sense for the O's. Controllable, can play multiple spots (DH, OF, C and could prob play some 1B) and would likely come at cost that would not include Bundy, Harvey or KG. If its not Gattis or guy like him on the trade market, then I think he looks at guys like Aoki, Rasmus, or someone like that via free agency.

All the talk of Alvarez or Walker playing a significant role early in the season is just DD set the expectation bar low enough that when he makes a move its viewed more positively IMO. DD is a smart guy, he may say Alvarez has a arm like AJ but he also knows he swings the bat like him and without the HR power. As a backup or injury replacement, he and Walker have value next year. As starters...not so much if you want to win.

People should stop stressing. At the end of the day I think you will see Lough/De Aza fill one spot in the OF, FA or trade obtained guy in the other. Pearce I believe will DH, play some OF, and play some 1B as well. Goosefraba folks

[mdbdotcom]

I'm guessing the "catcher" he needs will be Evan Gattis, who will get most of his playing time at DH.

[Tx Oriole]

There aren't many good DH options out there, Morse is the only really good hitter that could fill that role and he's refused to be a DH in the past. It would be easier to find an outfielder and shift Pearce to DH or get a rotation going.

There's no way Christian Walker is our DH. He would be replacement level at best at DH.

I think the Orioles are going to trade a SP and prospect(s) for one of Kemp and Upton go with whichever of them and De Aza in the OF, and plug Pearce at DH.

Bud Norris and a C prospect for Kemp and $30M would work for me.

Not for me it wouldn't.

[Three Run Homer]

I wouldn't expect Dan to say anything substantive in a radio interview. If he says "we know we need to get a strong bat to replace Nelson Cruz" then he's just weakened his bargaining position in the trade and free agent markets. So he's not going to say that, even if he thinks it's true. Conversely, he's going to emphasize what great internal options the O's have, even if he privately has his doubts.

For the record, I will be disappointed if The Plan for replacing Cruz and Markakis' at bats turns out to be lots more playing time for David Lough and assuming that Alvarez, Walker or Yastrzemski is ready to play in the majors.

[Number5]

All this Kemp and Upton nonsense is just that. The Dodgers are not going to provide the salary relief the Orioles would need without Bundy or KG in the deal, the Braves are likely to also want one of Bundy, KG or Harvey for Upton and I cant see DD giving up one of those guys for a one year rental.

Here is what I see happening. A guy like Evan Gattis would make some sense for the O's. Controllable, can play multiple spots (DH, OF, C and could prob play some 1B) and would likely come at cost that would not include Bundy, Harvey or KG. If its not Gattis or guy like him on the trade market, then I think he looks at guys like Aoki, Rasmus, or someone like that via free agency.

All the talk of Alvarez or Walker playing a significant role early in the season is just DD set the expectation bar low enough that when he makes a move its viewed more positively IMO. DD is a smart guy, he may say Alvarez has a arm like AJ but he also knows he swings the bat like him and without the HR power. As a backup or injury replacement, he and Walker have value next year. As starters...not so much if you want to win.

People should stop stressing. At the end of the day I think you will see Lough/De Aza fill one spot in the OF, FA or trade obtained guy in the other. Pearce I believe will DH, play some OF, and play some 1B as well. Goosefraba folks

I tend to agree with a lot of what you say here, especially that the Orioles aren't going to give up a top prospect for either Kemp or Upton. It would make no sense.

I do disagree with a few points, though:

Gattis can't play defense. At all. Especially to play at the level that Buck and DD are looking for in the Oriole defense. ATL will expect some team to pay in trade as if he could play defense. Very doubtful that DD would overpay like this. If ATL were to surprise me and be willing to market him in trade as the DH that he is, then maybe this could be something to explore.

Lough and De Aza are both left handed hitters. They will not be a platoon in the outfield.

[Yardball85]

Not for me it wouldn't.

Why not? Norris, while good, is a free-agent at the end of the year and the Orioles have six starting pitchers. While I would rather not give up Chance Sisco, the Dodgers will likely want a catcher. If they kick in enough money, this is a deal I would do in a second.

[Number5]

Why not? Norris, while good, is a free-agent at the end of the year and the Orioles have six starting pitchers. While I would rather not give up Chance Sisco, the Dodgers will likely want a catcher. If they kick in enough money, this is a deal I would do in a second.

Yes, but $30 million is not enough money. I don't think DD will give up anything of value for the privilege of overpaying Matt Kemp. I think a lot of folks are really underestimating just how awful Kemp's contract is. It is an albatross.

[Yardball85]

Yes, but $30 million is not enough money. I don't think DD will give up anything of value for the privilege of overpaying Matt Kemp. I think a lot of folks are really underestimating just how awful Kemp's contract is. It is an albatross.

I agree it is a horrible contract. I would need something like $50M - don't think $30 is nearly enough.

[luismatos4prez]

Yes, but $30 million is not enough money. I don't think DD will give up anything of value for the privilege of overpaying Matt Kemp. I think a lot of folks are really underestimating just how awful Kemp's contract is. It is an albatross.

I think it is enough money. Being forced to play CF when he so clearly can't handle it has been killing Kemp's value for years. If used strictly as a right fielder, he's a significant upgrade over Markakis. His ankles are an issue, but he has value even as a DH in a few years if necessary. And if he can't pass the physical then the trade won't happen anyway.

We'd be paying him about 5/75. That's not a ridiculous overpay. Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz, and Curtis Granderson all found $15M AAV on the open market. I'd rather have Kemp than any of them.

[mdbdotcom]

I think it is enough money. Being forced to play CF when he so clearly can't handle it has been killing Kemp's value for years. If used strictly as a right fielder, he's a significant upgrade over Markakis. His ankles are an issue, but he has value even as a DH in a few years if necessary. And if he can't pass the physical then the trade won't happen anyway.

We'd be paying him about 5/75. That's not a ridiculous overpay. Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz, and Curtis Granderson all found $15M AAV on the open market. I'd rather have Kemp than any of them.

Kemp wants to play CF. His agent was quoted the other day as saying Kemp doesn't mind being traded as long as his new team will give him a chance to move back to CF.

[Number5]

I think it is enough money. Being forced to play CF when he so clearly can't handle it has been killing Kemp's value for years. If used strictly as a right fielder, he's a significant upgrade over Markakis. His ankles are an issue, but he has value even as a DH in a few years if necessary. And if he can't pass the physical then the trade won't happen anyway.

We'd be paying him about 5/75. That's not a ridiculous overpay. Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz, and Curtis Granderson all found $15M AAV on the open market. I'd rather have Kemp than any of them.

Yes, obviously you think there is reason to believe that Kemp can exceed his indicated value. That is why you talk to LAD about a trade. If you didn't think that was likely, you don't talk to LAD at all. It is most certainly not, however, a reason to grossly overpay above what his value is today. To do so is a recipe for disaster. Kemp has a cumulative WAR of 4.6 the last three years, and Steamer projects him at 2.1 for 2015. He was 28, 29, and 30 the last three years, and will obviously be considerably older as his contract progresses through the next five years. 5/$77 million is a clear overpay, even if you think he will end up being worth it for whatever reason. A MLB GM has to discuss trade in terms of today's value, or not at all.

[luismatos4prez]

Kemp wants to play CF. His agent was quoted the other day as saying Kemp doesn't mind being traded as long as his new team will give him a chance to move back to CF.

Link? I hadn't head that.

If true, then too bad for him. He was worth 2.4 WAR in 59 games a RF last year and 0.1 in 39 games as a CF. Part of that is he happened to hit better while playing RF, but frankly even if we didn't have AJ I would rather start David Lough in center field than Matt Kemp. That's how bad Kemp is at playing CF.

[mdbdotcom]

Link? I hadn't head that.

If true, then too bad for him. He was worth 2.4 WAR in 59 games a RF last year and 0.1 in 39 games as a CF. Part of that is he happened to hit better while playing RF, but frankly even if we didn't have AJ I would rather start David Lough in center field than Matt Kemp. That's how bad Kemp is at playing CF.

I'm pretty sure that quote has appeared in this thread already. Google it. You'll find lots of good stuff.