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How much better is the Blue Jays lineup?


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One of the bigger movers this off season has been Toronto, with special attention being paid to the lineup (not the rotation?). They've made some significant signings and trades that on the surface lead us to believe they have a monster lineup. I want to confirm that.

2014

.259/.323/.414 (3rd/3rd/3rd), .736 OPS (2nd in AL), OPS+ 106

Most frequent lineup:

1) S Jose Reyes .287/.328/.398

2) S Melky Cabrera .301/.351/.458

3) R Jose Bautista .286/.403/.524

4) R Edwin Encarnacion .268/.354/.547

5) L Adam Lind .321/.381/.479

6) S Dioner Navarro .274/.317/.395

7) R Brett Lawrie .247/.301/.421

8) L Ryan Goins .188/.209/.271

9) L Anthony Gose .226/.311/.293

*) L Colby Rasmus .225/.287/.448

*) L Juan Francisco .220/.291/.456

*) L Munenori Kawasaki .258/.327/.296

What they're losing:

2465 PA, 2229 AB, .262/.324/.418

that's near exactly 40% of their PA, at a tick above team average production.

GAINS w/ 3 year stats (2012-2014):

R Josh Donaldson 552 PA, 487 AB, .270/.350/.462 (127 OPS+)

R Russell Martin 484 PA, 413 AB, .241/.345/.402 (108 OPS+)

L Michael Saunders 428 PA, 381 AB, .248/.320/.423 (111 OPS+)

S Justin Smoak 444 PA, 395 AB, .222/.304/.377 (94 OPS+)

What they're gaining:

1908 PA, 1676 AB, .247/.331/.418

The numbers are skewed a bit from foreign team and park factors. But from a cursory look, it doesn't seem like the team gained much more than they lost. Meaning they'll still be a top offense, but not a juggernaut.

Of note, the team lost a lot of production from the left side. You could make a case that their four best hitters are all right handed (Bautista, Encarnacion, Donaldson, Martin). They don't really have a guy that can break up that group. Maybe Navarro can bat ahead of Martin. Dalton Pompey is a switch hitter but he'll start at the bottom of the lineup. Something to watch going forward.

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