HHP: MASN/Nats/Orioles case (Inside the Courtroom)

[weams]

This is such a mess. The shame is that it comes at a time when the team is competitive and money really matters. Not like this happened in the middle of our 14 years of losing which would not have impacted our team as much in the short term.

I could not agree with you more.

[weams]

"I want there to be no doubt that, if any party initiates any lawsuit, or fails to act in strict compliance with the procedures set forth in the Agreement concerning the [Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee of Major League Baseball]'s decision, I will not hesitate to impose the strongest sanctions available to me under the Major League Constitution."

[SteveO]

This is such a mess. The shame is that it comes at a time when the team is competitive and money really matters. Not like this happened in the middle of our 14 years of losing which would not have impacted our team as much in the short term.

At the end of the day, win or lose the MASN case will have far less to do with our future fortunes than how we approach improving our player development system.

Plenty of teams with smaller budgets have had far more success in this area than we have. If we fix that problem, then MASN is just a nice parachute to use in order to keep some of the guys you develop and not the end all be all of the franchises fortunes.

[weams]

At the end of the day, win or lose the MASN case will have far less to do with our future fortunes than how we approach improving our player development system.

Plenty of teams with smaller budgets have had far more success in this area than we have. If we fix that problem, then MASN is just a nice parachute to use in order to keep some of the guys you develop and not the end all be all of the franchises fortunes.

So you think having lost half our market is no big deal? Ok then.

[weams]

At the end of the day, win or lose the MASN case will have far less to do with our future fortunes than how we approach improving our player development system.

Plenty of teams with smaller budgets have had far more success in this area than we have. If we fix that problem, then MASN is just a nice parachute to use in order to keep some of the guys you develop and not the end all be all of the franchises fortunes.

Small market teams occasionally do well in a window after having finished last for half a decade. One or two Mid Market team perpetually hang around.

[TonySoprano]

So you think having lost half our market is no big deal? Ok then.

This is probably the only one topic (out of hundreds) you and I will never agree on. "Half the market" is an exaggeration though the D.C. wine and cheesers (mocked here often) were closer to 30%. (If half was gone, attendance last year would have been around 1.8M instead of 2.4M.) Be that as it may, attendance dropped nearly 34% between 1997 and 2003 when there was still a team in Montreal. There was a spike in attendance in 2004 when in the offseason the fans assumed the Orioles were spending money with Tejada, Palmeiro, and Lopez added (even though payroll dropped). Over 3X more fans were lost in the year after Ripken retired (412,402) than in the first year of the Nats (119,495). I'm not saying D.C. wasn't a factor but mismanagement from the very top, which led to 14 straight losing years, was a much larger factor.

[SteveO]

Small market teams occasionally do well in a window after having finished last for half a decade. One or two Mid Market team perpetually hang around.

Every team has to deal with windows. More money just means the window takes longer to close and stays shut for a shorter period of time.

Next year this team is unlikely to be a playoff team, its not impossible but lets face it, a whole lot would have to go just right for it happen. That said, I do think if Buck and DD make the right decisions, they will have a nice haul of draft picks to help bring some young talent in, they can bring in some guys who can help this team remain respectable and be part of a winner in a couple of years as they tweak things.

To me it all starts and ends with Manny. He is an asset of unbelievable value. No matter what this team must maximize it. I can think of no other readily available player this team would be better off investing money in. If you make him an offer that is in the ballpark or slightly better than what Trout got and he turns it down, then the organization will know where things stand and can plan the future accordingly. Resolve this issue and the path to the future is whole lot more clear IMO

[weams]

To me it all starts and ends with Manny. He is an asset of unbelievable value. No matter what this team must maximize it. I can think of no other readily available player this team would be better off investing money in. If you make him an offer that is in the ballpark or slightly better than what Trout got and he turns it down, then the organization will know where things stand and can plan the future accordingly. Resolve this issue and the path to the future is whole lot more clear IMO

I can't disagree with any of this.

[SteveO]

This is probably the only one topic (out of hundreds) you and I will never agree on. "Half the market" is an exaggeration though the D.C. wine and cheesers (mocked here often) were closer to 30%. (If half was gone, attendance last year would have been around 1.8M instead of 2.4M.) Be that as it may, attendance dropped nearly 34% between 1997 and 2003 when there was still a team in Montreal. There was a spike in attendance in 2004 when in the offseason the fans assumed the Orioles were spending money with Tejada, Palmeiro, and Lopez added (even though payroll dropped). Over 3X more fans were lost in the year after Ripken retired (412,402) than in the first year of the Nats (119,495). I'm not saying D.C. wasn't a factor but mismanagement from the very top, which led to 14 straight losing years, was a much larger factor.[/QUOTE]

A bad economy probably factors in there also. The idea of spending the time and money is whole lot less appealing when you have less money.

This hold true in Baltimore also. When the economy is not exactly raging, for many people, luxuries like baseball games become much lower on the totem pole by necessity.

[MDtransplant757]

A bad economy probably factors in there also. The idea of spending the time and money is whole lot less appealing when you have less money.

This hold true in Baltimore also. When the economy is not exactly raging, for many people, luxuries like baseball games become much lower on the totem pole by necessity.

Pretty much. The O's rely more on fans who don't live in Maryland or Baltimore to come and watch the games, due to how bad the economy is.

[Chavez Ravine]

Here is some evidence that the relationship between payroll and winning among the major US sports is strongest in MLB:

Emory Univ. study

Although perhaps more interesting than that is just the fact that you can take a class called "Predictive Sports Analytics" at Emory.

[SteveO]

I can't disagree with any of this.

Thanks. I just think knowing if its even possible to get him inked long term really has a huge impact on how DD or the O's should or would approach things. If Manny inks a 6 year deal, then you know you have that centerpiece and a guy like AJ is a pretty attractive compliment to that. You may not be able to bring in all the complimentary parts at once but over a year or two you should be able to bring in enough to compliment Manny, AJ, Schoop and form a pretty good offense.

If Manny shoots down a Trout like deal or our best best best offer, then we have to accept the reality he is going to eventually hit the open market. That changes everything. Now you have to start planning on how to get the max return for Manny back. Without Manny, AJ suddenly might be more attractive for what other pieces you can get to go with those you get in return for Manny and so on. Either way, knowing which way its gonna play out would be really beneficial to DD, I expect the O's will aggressively try to get Manny done with the best they can offer. I would be shocked if they do not. They have the payroll, there is no single better option they could invest their money into.

[weams]

Thanks. I just think knowing if its even possible to get him inked long term really has a huge impact on how DD or the O's should or would approach things. If Manny inks a 6 year deal, then you know you have that centerpiece and a guy like AJ is a pretty attractive compliment to that. You may not be able to bring in all the complimentary parts at once but over a year or two you should be able to bring in enough to compliment Manny, AJ, Schoop and form a pretty good offense.

If Manny shoots down a Trout like deal or our best best best offer, then we have to accept the reality he is going to eventually hit the open market. That changes everything. Now you have to start planning on how to get the max return for Manny back. Without Manny, AJ suddenly might be more attractive for what other pieces you can get to go with those you get in return for Manny and so on. Either way, knowing which way its gonna play out would be really beneficial to DD, I expect the O's will aggressively try to get Manny done with the best they can offer. I would be shocked if they do not. They have the payroll, there is no single better option they could invest their money into.

I again have support this approach.

[SteveO]

I again have support this approach.

I think DD knows it to. He will make an aggressive approach I believe. I really am optimistic they will get it done. If losing Davis means that PA says yes to giving Manny 150-200 million to be here the next 6-8 years ....that's a big giant win long term for this franchise. That kind of deal might work for both sides, Manny gets paid and still be paid again big, the O's keep a rising superstar and centerpiece at a price in todays market is fair and will allow to add pieces around him.

Here is hoping that comes to pass.

[weams]

I think DD knows it to. He will make an aggressive approach I believe. I really am optimistic they will get it done. If losing Davis means that PA says yes to giving Manny 150-200 million to be here the next 6-8 years ....that's a big giant win long term for this franchise. That kind of deal might work for both sides, Manny gets paid and still be paid again big, the O's keep a rising superstar and centerpiece at a price in todays market is fair and will allow to add pieces around him.

Here is hoping that comes to pass.

With the knees, we just could not know before now. And he was never going to bet against himself.