Rosenthal Productions Presents: Trouble In Birdland

[Nevermore]

Discussed on an ongoing basis.

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So they are assumed? Which means that other parameters can be assumed?

[Redskins Rick]

J.J. Hardy has a 46 wRC+ this season. He is the 3rd worst hitter in MLB with at least 300 plate appearances. That is not anywhere near league average. It is complete ineptitude.

Would you rather go back to 2008 and have an totally inept SS with the glove, remember those 5 clowns that played throughout the year. Apologies in advance, if I missed the year, but you get my drift.

[Babypowder]

Would you rather go back to 2008 and have an totally inept SS with the glove, remember those 5 clowns that played throughout the year. Apologies in advance, if I missed the year, but you get my drift.

I would rather have a shortstop who combines to be better than replacement level, especially one not being paid well to be bad.

[Stotle]

So they are assumed? Which means that other parameters can be assumed?

This isn't that complicated. FO and ownership, as a general matter, are constantly in contact. If Duquette wants to get an idea what the budget is expected to be for 2016 (and 2017 for that matter) he just need ask. He won't get a set dollar amount, but he'll be given a general idea and also told what issues might swing that outlay drastically in one way or another. A historical examination of payrolls across the game would (I imagine) show it's unlikely any team sees massive cuts to payroll outside of an explicit decision to cut payroll as part of a rebuild. Bottom line is there is only one legitimate argument I can see for claiming Duquette had his hands at all tied this offseason: He wanted to move players or DFA players and was expressly prohibited to do so.

Outside of that, he got the team he has been designing since 2013.

[SteveA]

I would rather have a shortstop who combines to be better than replacement level, especially one not being paid well to be bad.

JJ had a horrible year, well below his career numbers.

Why do you assume 2016 will be just as bad.

Whenever someone over performs their career numbers, there is a chorus of voices on here warning that the player will regress to the mean next year and be more in line with their career #s. Yet there doesn't seem to be a lot of people on here talking about how JJ should be much better next year and in line with his career numbers, with perhaps a all downward adjustment for age.

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[Redskins Rick]

I would rather have a shortstop who combines to be better than replacement level, especially one not being paid well to be bad.

How can you be one of the best defender in the AL, with the glove and be replacement level?

[Can_of_corn]

JJ had a horrible year, well below his career numbers.

Why do you assume 2016 will be just as bad.

Whenever someone over performs their career numbers, there is a chorus of voices on here warning that the player will regress to the mean next year and be more in line with their career #s. Yet there doesn't seem to be a lot of people on here talking about how JJ should be much better next year and in line with his career numbers, with perhaps a all downward adjustment for age.

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The issue with Hardy is health.

If healthy I expect him to put up near career numbers.

[Redskins Rick]

The issue with Hardy is health.

If healthy I expect him to put up near career numbers.

I agree with your post.

[Babypowder]

JJ had a horrible year, well below his career numbers.

Why do you assume 2016 will be just as bad.

Whenever someone over performs their career numbers, there is a chorus of voices on here warning that the player will regress to the mean next year and be more in line with their career #s. Yet there doesn't seem to be a lot of people on here talking about how JJ should be much better next year and in line with his career numbers, with perhaps a all downward adjustment for age.

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I don't assume it will be, and never said I did. I think you have to be mindful of it though. He is getting up there especially for a middle infielder with a skillset that was already extremely volatile. The power was his one skill offensively and it has been gone for two years in a row now. He wasn't a terrible offensive player last year despite 9 home runs but that was mostly due to an uncharacteristically high BABIP. I expect him to bounce back a little next year because it is difficult to be as bad as he was this year again, but I expect his days of being anything close to a league average bat are over.

[osfan83]

I don't assume it will be, and never said I did. I think you have to be mindful of it though. He is getting up there especially for a middle infielder with a skillset that was already extremely volatile. The power was his one skill offensively and it has been gone for two years in a row now. He wasn't a terrible offensive player last year despite 9 home runs but that was mostly due to an uncharacteristically high BABIP. I expect him to bounce back a little next year because it is difficult to be as bad as he was this year again, but I expect his days of being anything close to a league average bat are over.

We can still contend even if Hardy is below average with the bat. Yes there is much work to do, but we also have payroll flexibility this year.

Can we get a strong lefty starter and a middle of the order bat for under $40 million, I think so. If we do that, and most of the rosters plays to their potential this team can contend. No guarantees, but they can contend......much different than those on this board that are convinced our talent level for the next 3 years is no better than last in the AL East.

I expect next year to have an all-star CFer, a HOF 3B, an all-star closer, and top 5 2B, a top 3 defensive team, and to sign a legit MOO Bat and strong lefty starter.....combine that with a good supporting cast playing to their potential and we can make the post season.

[Babypowder]

How can you be one of the best defender in the AL, with the glove and be replacement level?

Because you're so bad offensively that the total package is replacement level? It's not hard to understand. That's why he is at 0.1 WAR... replacement level.

[Babypowder]

We can still contend even if Hardy is below average with the bat. Yes there is much work to do, but we also have payroll flexibility this year.

Can we get a strong lefty starter and a middle of the order bat for under $40 million, I think so. If we do that, and most of the rosters plays to their potential this team can contend. No guarantees, but they can contend......much different than those on this board that are convinced our talent level for the next 3 years is no better than last in the AL East.

I expect next year to have an all-star CFer, a HOF 3B, an all-star closer, and top 5 2B, a top 3 defensive team, and to sign a legit MOO Bat and strong lefty starter.....combine that with a good supporting cast playing to their potential and we can make the post season.

I'd contend that there is a threshold Hardy has to be above to make it so the Orioles are not better off moving Machado to shortstop and finding another 3rd baseman. If Hardy is going to continue to be a well below average player you'd have to consider it.

[Redskins Rick]

Because you're so bad offensively that the total package is replacement level? It's not hard to understand. That's why he is at 0.1 WAR... replacement level.

Personally, I have problems with this, and I guess it's just me.

But, at me, plus defender at short is saving runs and helping them win games.

For example, Jeter was able to help them win, with his bat, in spite of his below average glove.

Personally, I would rather have the Blades of the world at that position. Of course, somebody like Ripken or Tejeda that can do both, and Hardy to a degree when healthy is obviously better.

[nate22]

We can still contend even if Hardy is below average with the bat. Yes there is much work to do, but we also have payroll flexibility this year.

Can we get a strong lefty starter and a middle of the order bat for under $40 million, I think so. If we do that, and most of the rosters plays to their potential this team can contend. No guarantees, but they can contend......much different than those on this board that are convinced our talent level for the next 3 years is no better than last in the AL East.

I expect next year to have an all-star CFer, a HOF 3B, an all-star closer, and top 5 2B, a top 3 defensive team, and to sign a legit MOO Bat and strong lefty starter.....combine that with a good supporting cast playing to their potential and we can make the post season.

That just replaces Davis and Chen. I'm afraid we'll need more than that.

[El Gordo]

That just replaces Davis and Chen. I'm afraid we'll need more than that.

I think we could resign Chen and Davis for less than 40M. But that leaves us right where we are now. In need of 2 COF a DH and a TOR SP.