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Offseason Rumors and Deals Around MLB


neveradoubt

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Lessons learned from Price Deal:

1) Agents/GMs run the rumor mills....more and more free agents sign with teams they aren't linked to

2) Free agent prices never go down despite the long term negative value of the contracts

3) MLB is flush with money

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Lessons learned from Price Deal:

1) Agents/GMs run the rumor mills....more and more free agents sign with teams they aren't linked to

2) Free agent prices never go down despite the long term negative value of the contracts

3) MLB is flush with money

Yea tend to agree with your lessons learned.

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More surprised the Cardinals were in on Price that high. Guess everyone has money to spend. Well, almost everyone. Atleast it's fun waiting to see if Davis and O'Day will take a discount...until they sign elsewhere.

They just signed a new TV contract....it's only a matter of time before our MASN fees go up on our cable bill

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mariners?src=hash">#Mariners</a> closing in on deal to trade 1B/OF Mark Trumbo to Orioles for C/1B Steve Clevenger. <a href="https://t.co/vMFkXZB8H5">https://t.co/vMFkXZB8H5</a> <a href="https://t.co/OeVqzOR6QG">pic.twitter.com/OeVqzOR6QG</a></p>— Bob Dutton (@TNT_Mariners) <a href="

">December 2, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Dutton is the Mariners Beat writer.

"There’s still some details to be worked out."

The Orioles are believed to be demanding another player in the deal.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mariners?src=hash">#Mariners</a> closing in on deal to trade 1B/OF Mark Trumbo to Orioles for C/1B Steve Clevenger. <a href="https://t.co/vMFkXZB8H5">https://t.co/vMFkXZB8H5</a> <a href="https://t.co/OeVqzOR6QG">pic.twitter.com/OeVqzOR6QG</a></p>? Bob Dutton (@TNT_Mariners) <a href="
">December 2, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Dutton is the Mariners Beat writer.

So the Orioles want Trumbo AND another player for the now redundant Clevenger huh?

Now the wheels within the wheels of the Wieters QO begin to reveal themselves to all those wretched unbelievers like myself. It was all part of a Grand Plan after all. I see it now.

;)

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http://www.baseballessential.com/news/2015/12/01/how-have-david-prices-historical-comps-aged/

In order to find the players that are most comparable to Price, I used the similarity score feature from Baseball-Reference. I chose to use their list of pitchers most similar to Price through his age-29 season, which he just completed in 2015. (Here is a link to the list of players). The list features a number of pitchers who at one time or another were considered among the best in the game like Johan Santana and Roy Oswalt, and guys who are considered to be aces in the game today such as Max Scherzer, Cole Hamels, and until this year Jon Lester. Then using this list of ten names I decided to see how these players aged in terms of WAR.

...

To determine an aging curve for Price over the length of the contract I took the average for each of these ten pitchers in their individual seasons from age 30-36 which is Price’s age range for the length of his contract. The chart below shows the average WAR at each age as well as the number of historical seasons at each age.

Age Seasons WAR

30 10 3.8

31 9 3.5

32 6 2.5

33 6 1.8

34 5 1.4

35 4 1.2

36 2 1.4

As the chart shows, most of these pitchers do not have data for seasons beyond age 32 so as I previously stated this approach is extremely inexact, but it does provide a gauge of exactly what the Red Sox should expect from their new ace. Based on these averages Price will be worth a total of 15.7 WAR across the seven years of his new deal. If these numbers in fact hold true, then the Red Sox grossly overpaid for Price’s services. According to this projection for Price, Boston is paying Price $13.8 million per WAR, a number significantly higher than expected market figure of around $8 million per WAR.

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