Jonathan Schoop could be headed for Stardom

[DrungoHazewood]

I was wondering about this as well. I know there was some changes that the purveyors of some of the defensive rating metrics had to do to remove some of the wackiness resulting from high % of shifted sets using traditional tracking (didn't Lawrie break it at 3B or something?). Perhaps he's suggesting that being moved out to shallow RF and the subsequent adjustment for the play mutes his defensive impact? I don't really know, but I'm assuming the suggestion has something to do with how the charting is done for playing in a shifted defense.

I am open to the idea that some players' metrics are disproportionally impacted by shifts. But I have seen no evidence that second basemen in general or specifically Jonathan Schoop are impacted negatively or positively.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I am open to the idea that some players' metrics are disproportionally impacted by shifts. But I have seen no evidence that second basemen in general or specifically Jonathan Schoop are impacted negatively or positively.

No argument from me on that last point. Just speculating what he's getting at. I honestly don't know enough either way to say what impact the shift has or doesn't have on the metrics of specific positions/players, but like you, I am open to the possibility of its existence (I think that I may be inclined to lean toward thinking it has some effect of unknown magnitude).

I will say this, UZR/150 has him as -5.7, so better than last year (-8.8) but significantly worse than two years ago (7.6). All necessary caveats about SSS and the time it takes for defensive metrics to stabilize, I don't think I've seen anything in his play to suggest that he is a negative at 2B (even within the SSS). Obviously, I'm not taking a systematic approach and this is off the top of my head, but he hasn't seemed to have an issue with balls getting by him. That seems to be the source of the negative rating, his range. He's above average in terms of DP and there's no issue with errors. For the sake of discussion, range is likely the place where some irregularity from the shift would manifest itself, no?

[DrungoHazewood]

No argument from me on that last point. Just speculating what he's getting at. I honestly don't know enough either way to say what impact the shift has or doesn't have on the metrics of specific positions/players, but like you, I am open to the possibility of its existence (I think that I may be inclined to lean toward thinking it has some effect of unknown magnitude).

I will say this, UZR/150 has him as -5.7, so better than last year (-8.8) but significantly worse than two years ago (7.6). All necessary caveats about SSS and the time it takes for defensive metrics to stabilize, I don't think I've seen anything in his play to suggest that he is a negative at 2B (even within the SSS). Obviously, I'm not taking a systematic approach and this is off the top of my head, but he hasn't seemed to have an issue with balls getting by him. That seems to be the source of the negative rating, his range. He's above average in terms of DP and there's no issue with errors. For the sake of discussion, range is likely the place where some irregularity from the shift would manifest itself, no?

Yes, probably. But Schoop is one of the larger second basemen of all time and not particularly fast. Even in '14 his range rating was only a few runs above average, his arm was a bigger positive. He profiles more like a third baseman, or a pre-1930 second baseman. It doesn't seem implausible that his range is below average.

[Shabadoo25]

Schoop needs to enroll in the Manny school of pitch recognition and drop out of the Adam Jones one.

Schoop has been much better this year but there are games where he just abandons any pitch selection skills.

[Babypowder]

The fact that Schoop has a 0.0 WAR makes me want to re evaluate that stat. Especially since how much WAR do 2nd Basemen lose on defense because of the shift?

I don't know much the shift is a problem for him, I think it's more the sub .300 OBP, below average offense, and lack of range.

Re-evaluation implies there was a already an evaluation. Judging by your previous stances against just about every metric while showing a complete ignorance in their calculation and sometimes even the data itself, I'd think that first evaluation unlikely.

[Ruzious]

.300 for any 11 game period means you are hot. An 11 game hit streak means you are hot. YMMV

Bottom line - he hasn't played particularly well this year overall, so far. He may become a star, but it's premature to assume he will be.

[NickM21]

Is Schoop's upside offensively something similar to Adam Jones?

[BohKnowsBmore]

I don't know much the shift is a problem for him, I think it's more the sub .300 OBP, below average offense, and lack of range.

Re-evaluation implies there was a already an evaluation. Judging by your previous stances against just about every metric while showing a complete ignorance in their calculation and sometimes even the data itself, I'd think that first evaluation unlikely.

Saying sub .300 OBP and below average offense is sort of double-counting. His power makes his total offense (as measured by OPS) far more respectable. A slight uptick in his BA will likely bring him over the 100 OPS+ mark, which is good territory to be in for a 2B. I expect him to be comfortably above that before season's end, though.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Bottom line - he hasn't played particularly well this year overall, so far. He may become a star, but it's premature to assume he will be.

Not sure anyone is assuming anything. The thread title literally says "could be."

[atomic]

Just a few of the guys who have played second base in the American League who are better hitters than Schoop:

1) Jose Altuve

2) Robinson Cano

3) Roughned Odor

4) Dustion Pedoria

5) Ian Kinsler

6) Logan Forsythe

7) Brock Holt

8) Jason Kipnis

9) Brian Dozier

I would say he is definitely not headed for super stardom. Odor probably is.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is Schoop's upside offensively something similar to Adam Jones?

Kind of. Schoop has more power, and somewhat amazingly, less plate discipline than Jones did at 24. Through 24 Jones walked in 4.8% of PAs and had a .153 ISO. Schoop is 2.9% and 173.

I've previously said that Schoop's offensive ceiling is Alfonso Soriano, who got sidetracked to Japan and didn't establish himself in the majors until 25. I still think that's plausible. But not everyone with power and no idea what's a strike ends up as Alfonso Soriano.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Just a few of the guys who have played second base in the American League who are better hitters than Schoop:

1) Jose Altuve

2) Robinson Cano

3) Roughned Odor

4) Dustion Pedoria

5) Ian Kinsler

6) Logan Forsythe

7) Brock Holt

8) Jason Kipnis

9) Brian Dozier

I would say he is definitely not headed for super stardom. Odor probably is.

Schoop has just as much if not more power than anyone in that group, though. I think that is what gets everyone so excited. His ISO of .203 was only behind Odor and Dozier on that list last year for AL 2B and his HR/AB was by far the lowest (he led all 2B with 20.3, next closest was Dozier with 22.4). He may not be the complete hitter that some of those guys are, especially at this point in his career, but I don't think it's unreasonable for people to speculate based on his power potential combined with his strong D.

[Babypowder]

Schoop has just as much if not more power than anyone in that group, though. I think that is what gets everyone so excited. His ISO of .203 was only behind Odor and Dozier on that list last year for AL 2B and his HR/AB was by far the lowest (he led all 2B with 20.3, next closest was Dozier with 22.4). He may not be the complete hitter that some of those guys are, especially at this point in his career, but I don't think it's unreasonable for people to speculate based on his power potential combined with his strong D.

Are we so sure he plays strong D? We don't really have the sample size to make a real determination on that yet, but the metrics didn't like him much last year and not so far this year either. I'm certainly not sold on his range.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Are we so sure he plays strong D? We don't really have the sample size to make a real determination on that yet, but the metrics didn't like him much last year and not so far this year either. I'm certainly not sold on his range.

Well, the metrics also liked him his rookie season. Until we have more data for them to stabilize, we should go with what our eyes tell us, IMO. He may be limited in his range relative to other 2B, largely based on his size, however, I think he has a very quick transfer and a tremendous arm which helps him very much. I personally believe he is a + defender at the position, however, that analysis is not comprehensive in the slightest. The opinion is mostly based on watching Oriole opponents. Rarely am I impressed with an opposing 2B such that I think he is clearly a step above Schoop defensively (if better at all). Yes, I have orange colored glasses, but between the data, which is SSS and mixed in his opinion* of him, being of limited definitive usefulness and the general qualitative opinion of him being a good defender, at least around here, I am willing to go with my personal opinion of the matter. What is your personal opinion of his defense.

* - In 2014, Schoop played to a positive UZR in ~1,010 innings. He has played to a negative UZR in a nearly identical number of total innings between 2015 (721) and thus far in 2016 (292)

[SteveA]

Well, the metrics also liked him his rookie season. Until we have more data for them to stabilize, we should go with what our eyes tell us, IMO. He may be limited in his range relative to other 2B, largely based on his size, however, I think he has a very quick transfer and a tremendous arm which helps him very much. I personally believe he is a + defender at the position, however, that analysis is not comprehensive in the slightest. The opinion is mostly based on watching Oriole opponents. Rarely am I impressed with an opposing 2B such that I think he is clearly a step above Schoop defensively (if better at all). Yes, I have orange colored glasses, but between the data, which is SSS and mixed in his opinion* of him, being of limited definitive usefulness and the general qualitative opinion of him being a good defender, at least around here, I am willing to go with my personal opinion of the matter. What is your personal opinion of his defense.

* - In 2014, Schoop played to a positive UZR in ~1,010 innings. He has played to a negative UZR in a nearly identical number of total innings between 2015 (721) and thus far in 2016 (292)

Does UZR in any way measure the ability to turn a DP?

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