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Fangraphs: The Worst Transactions of the 2016 Offseason (O's #2)


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Davis was a .235 hitter who got hit and hit 22 homeruns in meaningless August and September games. Davis performed at an MVP level for 2 months last year and the first half of 2013. That said, you are looking too far into webbrick's point b/c you are determined to prove him wrong.

I should leave obviously biased, purposely misleading posts alone and let them die on their own. I suppose I lack self control.

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Good point. The Phillies do not get that benefit with Ryan Howard.

Last two years Howard's wRC+ has been 93 and 92. That's a sub-replacement DH. If he'd played his entire career as a DH he'd be two wins worse, because his fielding is not quite as bad as the five run positional difference between first and DH.

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It becomes a lot harder to significantly criticize the Chris Davis deal in light of what has come since. A $150M payroll completely changes the game. Who would have ever thought the payroll would be $130Mish WITHOUT what they are paying Davis this year? I guess all the DD concerns from FanFest were overblown.

What if the deal prevents the Orioles from signing Machado in the future? Manny is going to demand $30 million a year and will likely get it if he hits the open market. Even if they do resign Machado, they'll have $50+ million tied up in two players until 2022. It hurts future payroll flexibility and the contract is a huge risk. From all indications, there really weren't any other serious competitors for Davis' services. The Orioles should have played hardball and offered Davis a 4 year, $100 million contract. If that offer isn't good for him, tell him to kick rocks. Sign Jaso or Napoli to hold down the fort for one or two years until Mancini is ready.

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Is it?

In the last four seasons (age 32-35) Howard has played 433 games and has amassed -3 WAR.

I am not sure how that helps the Davis case.

It doesn't help since it's one data point among hundreds of vaguely similar corner infielders. But I'm not sure he's the typical representative of the group. I don't know if most players go 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 1, -1, -1, -1.

And Davis is the kind of player who might break a PECOTA run. His trends lines have been plotted with bird shot out of a Remington 870.

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What if the deal prevents the Orioles from signing Machado in the future? Manny is going to demand $30 million a year and will likely get it if he hits the open market. Even if they do resign Machado, they'll have $50+ million tied up in two players until 2022. It hurts future payroll flexibility and the contract is a huge risk. From all indications, there really weren't any other serious competitors for Davis' services. The Orioles should have played hardball and offered Davis a 4 year, $100 million contract. If that offer isn't good for him, tell him to kick rocks. Sign Jaso or Napoli to hold down the fort for one or two years until Mancini is ready.

I think that the odds are probably against signing Manny to an extension, unfortunately. I don't think that the Davis contract has anything to do with that, however.

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I understand the criticism of the Davis deal, but the headline referring to him as an "aging" slugger seems a bit off. Most free agents are about Davis' age.

When a 30-year old in the middle of his prime is called an aging slugger, I immediately believe there is an agenda.

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When a 30-year old in the middle of his prime is called an aging slugger, I immediately believe there is an agenda.

As soon as I see Cameron's name, I pretty much know there is an agenda. I can't prove it, of course, but I really believe that if the Red Sox or Mariners had signed Davis to the exact same contract, Cameron would be singing their praises and it would be listed on the 10-best list, rather than the 10-worst. The guy just never shows objectivity, IMO.

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As soon as I see Cameron's name, I pretty much know there is an agenda. I can't prove it, of course, but I really believe that if the Red Sox or Mariners had signed Davis to the exact same contract, Cameron would be singing their praises and it would be listed on the 10-best list, rather than the 10-worst. The guy just never shows objectivity, IMO.

Oh, I don't know. I've thought similar things, but he did say this last winter: "We’ll do a full write-up on Cruz to the Mariners in a bit, but this is an early contender for the worst signing of the off-season."

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