Roch: Matusz Traded (along with draft pick)

[Can_of_corn]

So your default stance is that the Orioles are dumb, everyone else must be smarter?

Nope.

But the Braves would sure have to be stupid to trade two players worth a second round pick and take on 3M in salary to get a second round pick.

Would be nice if I were wrong but I don't see why the Braves would give up any players that they think has any chance of being impactful.

[Can_of_corn]

Where'd we not play the international game where we signed Kim this year? I guess he must not count in your eyes because he hasn't lit the world on fire.

Premium free agents? Did we not resign 3/4 of our own in Davis, Wieters and O'Day? Rule V guys? Don't look now, one is our starting left fielder.

Kim was fine, I was talking about the other category of international player, sorry I didn't specify. I view players like Kim as free agents since their are no restrictions on signing them.

[owknows]

Boy the Braves must sure be dumb to so drastically misjudge their own players that way.

I think this has been mentioned to you already... but I'll mention it again...

Maybe... just maybe... neither team is dumb.

Maybe... The Orioles place a greater value on promising arms that are closer to the majors, with at least a semi-proven history in the minors, than they place on the 76th pick... with its uncertainties and its longer wait times.

And Maybe... Just Maybe.. Atlanta (having a good stock of mid-level arms) places a greater value on the 76th pick in it's current mode of stockpiling picks, because it is hoping to restock some position players.

I guess it seems impossible to grasp... but maybe both teams see value in the trade, and maybe both are right (given their respective circumstances)

Why does one team or the other have to be dumb? Isn't that a naive way to look at things?

[weams]

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2016/05/24/analyzing-matusz-trade-dan-duquettes-flurry-transactions/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Can_of_corn]

I think this has been mentioned to you already... but I'll mention it again...

Maybe... just maybe... neither team is dumb.

Maybe... The Orioles place a greater value on promising arms that are closer to the majors, with at least a semi-proven history in the minors, than they place on the 76th pick... with its uncertainties and its longer wait times.

And Maybe... Just Maybe.. Atlanta (having a good stock of mid-level arms) places a greater value on the 76th pick in it's current mode of stockpiling picks, because it is hoping to restock some position players.

I guess it seems impossible to grasp... but maybe both teams see value in the trade, and maybe both are right (given their respective circumstances)

Why does one team or the other have to be dumb? Isn't that a naive way to look at things?

Promising arms that couldn't crack the Braves top 30.

Just like Dan was really happy to get the guy from the Dodgers before letting him walk shortly after.

My guess is the league wouldn't approve the deal if it was just bad contract for draft pick.

[Moose Milligan]

I think this has been mentioned to you already... but I'll mention it again...

Maybe... just maybe... neither team is dumb.

Maybe... The Orioles place a greater value on promising arms that are closer to the majors, with at least a semi-proven history in the minors, than they place on the 76th pick... with its uncertainties and its longer wait times.

And Maybe... Just Maybe.. Atlanta (having a good stock of mid-level arms) places a greater value on the 76th pick in it's current mode of stockpiling picks, because it is hoping to restock some position players.

I guess it seems impossible to grasp... but maybe both teams see value in the trade, and maybe both are right (given their respective circumstances)

Why does one team or the other have to be dumb? Isn't that a naive way to look at things?

No, no...ORIOLES DUMB!! BRAVES SMART!!

[owknows]

Promising arms that couldn't crack the Braves top 30.

And yet as I showed you yesterday, would arguably crack the O's top 15. Funny, huh?

Let's take a look at some top Orioles Prospects

#10 Chris Lee 3.29 ERA with 98/59 K/BB in 145 innings AA

#11 Lazaro Leyva 2.90 ERA with 36/16 K/BB in 40 innings

#12 David Hess 3.64 ERA with 122/57 K/BB in 143 innings AA

#13 Parker Bridwell 3.99 ERA with 93/38 K/BB in 97 innings AA (elbow trouble)

Now let's take a look at the recent acquisitions

Trevor Belicek 2.43 ERA with 73/13 K/BB in 85 innings A

Brandon Barker 3.08 ERA with 183/65 K/BB in 228 innings AA

[Can_of_corn]

No, no...ORIOLES DUMB!! BRAVES SMART!!

For the record I never said the O's were dumb.

Dan doesn't appear to care what state he leaves the franchise is and in that light this deal makes good sense.

Of course you already knew that was my stance.

[Can_of_corn]

And yet as I showed you yesterday, would arguably crack the O's top 15. Funny, huh?

Let's take a look at some top Orioles Prospects

#10 Chris Lee 3.29 ERA with 98/59 K/BB in 145 innings AA

#11 Lazaro Leyva 2.90 ERA with 36/16 K/BB in 40 innings

#12 David Hess 3.64 ERA with 122/57 K/BB in 143 innings AA

#13 Parker Bridwell 3.99 ERA with 93/38 K/BB in 97 innings AA (elbow trouble)

Now let's take a look at the recent acquisitions

Trevor Belicek 2.43 ERA with 73/13 K/BB in 85 innings A

Brandon Barker 3.08 ERA with 183/65 K/BB in 228 innings AA

What difference does it make where they would rank in the 27th best system?

Do you think the Braves have 30 guys that have a realistic chance to make an impact at the ML level?

Do you think the O's have 15?

[weams]

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2016/05/24/analyzing-matusz-trade-dan-duquettes-flurry-transactions/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

And the skeptics roar. How can the Orioles afford to drop money that could have gone to their farm system, which Baseball America ranked 27th of 30 at the beginning of the year?

That answer could be very simple: That money may go to the big league team this July for reinforcements needed for a pennant push.

Excerpt.

[weams]

What difference does it make where they would rank in the 27th best system?

Do you think the Braves have 30 guys that have a realistic chance to make an impact at the ML level?

Do you think the O's have 15?

Just because a pitcher is not touted as young enough or special enough to crack a bad team's top prospect list does not mean they never will have major league value.

[weams]

For the record I never said the O's were dumb.

Dan doesn't appear to care what state he leaves the franchise is and in that light this deal makes good sense.

Of course you already knew that was my stance.

You know I am ok with the Orioles doing all they can through 2018 to win as much as they are able. Playoffs or titles not withstanding. You know, Wins, each night. To make me happy.

[weams]

What I am not ok with is shaving payroll to enrich ownership at the expese of the major league team's competitiveness.

[owknows]

What difference does it make where they would rank in the 27th best system?

Quite a bit I would say. Seemed to me that people have been quite excited about the development of Lee, Hess and Bridwell.

It doesn't quite fit your narrative that the two pitchers acquired from Atlanta look better at first glance I know, but restocking the farm system can be done two ways. Picks or trades.

Do you think the Braves have 30 guys that have a realistic chance to make an impact at the ML level?

Not for the Braves, no. Too much young mid-level talent creates a future logjam. Probably better pitchers ahead of these guys in the braves system. That doesn't mean they aren't better than the O's prospects.

Do you think the O's have 15?

15 possibles.. sure... of which probably half will make the show... and maybe 6 of those will stick.

Based on the current comparison of performance, the two kids we just got from Atlanta have a better shot than those we already had in the organization.

[DrungoHazewood]

The average value of a #76 pick is something like one win in the six years of team control. So let's say $8M. The Orioles got the remainder of Matusz' salary and two minor league players for $8M.

I'd rather they kept the pick, but assessing the relative values of what was traded it was fairly even.