It's that time of year again!

[SteveA]

Every year, sometime in September, there comes a day when the Orioles surpass the projections of the PECOTA system.

This year we ALMOST pulled it off in August, but had to settle for September 2.

PECOTA projected 72 wins for the Orioles this year and we won our 73rd tonight.

Of course they had Tampa winning the division. [emoji1]

[24fps]

It's only a matter of time before PECOTA has its own show on Comedy Central.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I wasn't predicting the O's to win 100 games, but really 72? And no one thought Tampa was winning the division this year.

[Norfolk orioles]

Good thing baseball games aren't played on paper, we'd never stand a chance.

[weams]

It's only a matter of time before PECOTA has its own show on Comedy Central.

Pecota is not even math.

[weams]

I wasn't predicting the O's to win 100 games, but really 72? And no one thought Tampa was winning the division this year.

No one really. Not that club.

[Frobby]

Pecota is not even math.

It is also not a system that is designed to project team success. It's designed to make projections about individual players, with an acknowledged high degree of uncertainty.

[weams]

It is also not a system that is designed to project team success. It's designed to make projections about individual players, with an acknowledged high degree of uncertainty.

I can predict most things with a 15 % swing in either direction.

[Frobby]

I can predict most things with a 15 % swing in either direction.

I would hope so. For a baseball team, a 15% swing means 10-14 wins in either direction.

[SteveA]

I would hope so. For a baseball team, a 15% swing means 10-14 wins in either direction.

We have a decent chance of exceeding our PECOTA projection by more than. 14 wins.

The Rays will likely fall short of their PECOTA projection (91) by more than 14 games.

Clearly, Weams >>>>> PECOTA.

[Frobby]

We have a decent chance of exceeding our PECOTA projection by more than. 14 wins.

The Rays will likely fall short of their PECOTA projection (91) by more than 14 games.

Clearly, Weams >>>>> PECOTA.

I agree. PECOTA didn't buy me a beer and a hot dog last week, but weams did.

[25 Nuggets]

Yeah even more than the annual underrating of the Orioles, I could not understand the Tampa Bay projection.

[murph]

I agree. PECOTA didn't buy me a beer and a hot dog last week, but weams did.

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