Is Dan going in the wrong direction with aging players?

[Number5]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bridges is, I don't think Goodman is.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Number5 said:

I mean Bridges is actually a veteran.  He served in the Coast Guard reserves.

[Moondoggie]

2 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

The Orioles were a game out of the Wild Card on July 31, 2015.

But the Orioles shouldn't have been (and hopefully weren't) reacting to where they were on July 31. They should have been assessing their chances throughout the month of July. If you go to MLB.com and check out the Fangraphs playoff probability graph from 2015, on July 24 their odds of earning a wild card spot were 9% (they were 46-48 with five teams ahead of them in the wild card race).  At the same time, teams directly competing with the Orioles for the wild card were picking up bigger pieces for the playoff run than the Orioles possibly could (Toronto: Price, Tulowitzki, Revere; Houston: Kazmir, Gomez, Fiers). Even had Parra continued his unlikely career first half with the Orioles, it wouldn't have been enough. The Orioles tried to fill an inside straight and lost. By doing so, they also lost an opportunity to restock the farm system with prospects by trading Davis and Chen (both of whom were free agents at the end of the season).

And that leads us directly to today. Had the Orioles made better choices then, they might have acquired young players who would be ready to step in now. Or at least who could have been packaged and flipped for others who could. That's why they had no choice but to find cheap castoffs in the 30s as short term stopgaps. The free agent pickings were slim to begin with, they tied their hands last year with the Davis contract, then again this year with Trumbo. And they had few prospects of any value to trade for younger, longer-term options.

[weams]

33 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

But the Orioles shouldn't have been (and hopefully weren't) reacting to where they were on July 31. They should have been assessing their chances throughout the month of July. If you go to MLB.com and check out the Fangraphs playoff probability graph from 2015, on July 24 their odds of earning a wild card spot were 9% (they were 46-48 with five teams ahead of them in the wild card race).  At the same time, teams directly competing with the Orioles for the wild card were picking up bigger pieces for the playoff run than the Orioles possibly could (Toronto: Price, Tulowitzki, Revere; Houston: Kazmir, Gomez, Fiers). Even had Parra continued his unlikely career first half with the Orioles, it wouldn't have been enough. The Orioles tried to fill an inside straight and lost. By doing so, they also lost an opportunity to restock the farm system with prospects by trading Davis and Chen (both of whom were free agents at the end of the season).

And that leads us directly to today. Had the Orioles made better choices then, they might have acquired young players who would be ready to step in now. Or at least who could have been packaged and flipped for others who could. That's why they had no choice but to find cheap castoffs in the 30s as short term stopgaps. The free agent pickings were slim to begin with, they tied their hands last year with the Davis contract, then again this year with Trumbo. And they had few prospects of any value to trade for younger, longer-term options.

With a team starved for winning seasons and playoffs like the Orioles, look at those odds as survival odds with a fatal illness. You always go for it. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

With an Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations starved for a ring, look at those odds as survival odds with a fatal illness. You always go for it. 

Fixed it.

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I mean Bridges is actually a veteran.  He served in the Coast Guard reserves.

Pretty sure Walter Sobchak was in Vietnam...

[backwardsk]

7 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Pretty sure Walter Sobchak was in Vietnam...

That was prior to him dabbling in pacifism.

Our rotation got younger by swapping out Gallardo and Wright for Bundy and Miley.  

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

There was several of us, thought it was great deal.

But oh well, amazing afterwards, everybody has a different memory of events.

 

The majority view was that it was a good deal, though when it was revealed that the second piece was Tarpley (or was Brault the second piece?), enthusiasm was tempered somewhat.    

[weams]

There is old. And there is dead. 

[Moondoggie]

11 hours ago, weams said:

With a team starved for winning seasons and playoffs like the Orioles, look at those odds as survival odds with a fatal illness. You always go for it. 

And that's how you find yourself back in the wilderness. At this point, I'm not very optimistic about this club beyond 2018. It's going to take a Houdini act to keep them competitive beyond that.

Nobody had been more starved for winning seasons and playoffs than the Pirates. But the Bucs found themselves in a similar situation on the fringes of a wild card spot last year and traded Melancon for a young left-handed reliever and a pitching prospect who is now in their organizational top 10 (top 5 by some accounts). That's part of the philosophy that has built a Top 5 in baseball farm system for Pittsburgh while the Orioles are in the bottom 5. And it's why the Pirates will remain competitive longer than the Orioles.

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

And that's how you find yourself back in the wilderness. At this point, I'm not very optimistic about this club beyond 2018. It's going to take a Houdini act to keep them competitive beyond that.

Nobody had been more starved for winning seasons and playoffs than the Pirates. But the Bucs found themselves in a similar situation on the fringes of a wild card spot last year and traded Melancon for a young left-handed reliever and a pitching prospect who is now in their organizational top 10 (top 5 by some accounts). That's part of the philosophy that has built a Top 5 in baseball farm system for Pittsburgh while the Orioles are in the bottom 5. And it's why the Pirates will remain competitive longer than the Orioles.

I think the Orioles will out perform the Pirates once again this season.  And next. 

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

And that's how you find yourself back in the wilderness. At this point, I'm not very optimistic about this club beyond 2018. It's going to take a Houdini act to keep them competitive beyond that.

Nobody had been more starved for winning seasons and playoffs than the Pirates. But the Bucs found themselves in a similar situation on the fringes of a wild card spot last year and traded Melancon for a young left-handed reliever and a pitching prospect who is now in their organizational top 10 (top 5 by some accounts). That's part of the philosophy that has built a Top 5 in baseball farm system for Pittsburgh while the Orioles are in the bottom 5. And it's why the Pirates will remain competitive longer than the Orioles.

Actually, the Pirates took a page from the Ray, DC, Astros book. Finish last a couple times. Get some top end draft talent. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

And that's how you find yourself back in the wilderness. At this point, I'm not very optimistic about this club beyond 2018. It's going to take a Houdini act to keep them competitive beyond that.

Nobody had been more starved for winning seasons and playoffs than the Pirates. But the Bucs found themselves in a similar situation on the fringes of a wild card spot last year and traded Melancon for a young left-handed reliever and a pitching prospect who is now in their organizational top 10 (top 5 by some accounts). That's part of the philosophy that has built a Top 5 in baseball farm system for Pittsburgh while the Orioles are in the bottom 5. And it's why the Pirates will remain competitive longer than the Orioles.

We have a narrow path to remaining a contender after 2018, but it's not impossible.    It probably hinges on Gausman and Bundy both becoming top tier starters and a few other good outcomes for young players.   

It's March, and for now I'm just focused on 2017.    I think this team has the potential to be better than last year's -- or not.    I'm looking forward to watching how things unfold.  

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We have a narrow path to remaining a contender after 2018, but it's not impossible.    It probably hinges on Gausman and Bundy both becoming top tier starters and a few other good outcomes for young players.   

It's March, and for now I'm just focused on 2017.    I think this team has the potential to be better than last year's -- or not.    I'm looking forward to watching how things unfold.  

I'm old. And I am now spoiled. I no longer wish to watch an Orioles club that is out of any reasonable race by June. I'll take it this way. Not the other way. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

I'm old. And I am now spoiled. I no longer wish to watch an Orioles club that is out of any reasonable race by June. I'll take it this way. Not the other way. 

I'm equally old (actually, older?) and though I've really enjoyed the last five years, now I'd need a deeper playoff run to be really satisfied.    It's all a matter of degree, though.   

And by the way, I'm planning on having a personal window of another 25-30 years.