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Some Crazy Mancini Stats

CaptainRedbeard

By CaptainRedbeard
in Orioles Talk

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CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

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First for the fun small sample size ones:

  • In 39 career plate appearances at the major league level, Mancini has a slugging percentage of exactly 1.000.
  • Mancini has actually hit more home runs (7) than his other hits combined (4 singles and 2 doubles).
  • Mancini has a career .361 AVG - despite a very pedestrian .316 BABIP.  That's what happens when over half your hits don't go in play (homers don't count in BABIP).

Now for the relevantly encouraging ones, which may be meaningful despite the still small samples:

  • Steamer and ZIPS are now projecting Mancini for a wRC+ of 105 and 102, respectively.  IIRC they were significantly lower at the start of the season - something like 101 and 98.  I don't know how to check, but I'm quite positive that those projections have increased even over his short 24 PA this season, due to an increase in his power projection (the AVG/K/BB/BABIP projections are likely largely unchanged).
  • In his 24 PA this season, Mancini has a very, very solid 7.6% swinging strike rate and 79.5% contact rate. For a power hitter, those would be quite good rates - they look exactly like Paul Goldschmidt, who was at 7.7% and 79.4% last year.  These are the stats that tend to have predictive significance very quickly, over something like 60-100 PAs.  And it just happens to be that Paul Goldschmidt is the poster child for "non-top prospect power hitter who was overlooked despite good stats in the minors" that everybody loves to make comps to.  Mancini has never had great BB rates like Goldschmidt, but the power / hit tool could be very real.

To temper your enthusiasm, keep in mind that Mancini has faced an overwhelming percentage of LHP at the major league level (26 PA, vs 13 PA vs RHP), so none of this is all that relevant to what he would be as a full time player.  But it's fun, and there's some interesting tidbits in there that could be very positive.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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He looks like a major league player up there.   Very relaxed at the plate and so far his swing is very under control.    I haven't seen him swinging at bad pitches.     He's 2nd lowest on the team at swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, 20.3%,

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He looks like a major league player up there.   Very relaxed at the plate and so far his swing is very under control.    I haven't seen him swinging at bad pitches.     He's 2nd lowest on the team at swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, 20.3%,

He has looked awesome so far, and not wanting to be a debbie downer here.

The key for me, the league will make adjustments and figure out how to get him out, and he handles it, will be the key, will he make his own counter adjustments?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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23 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

My goodness if they really do have a Paul Goldschmidt on their hands...

I'm not too worried about that, but let's say he turns out to be a guy who can produce an .800+ OPS, and can play the outfield better than Trumbo.   That would be a huge asset to this franchise over the next 6 years.   

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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For some reason major league pitchers keep trying to throw fastballs to him and as long as they do he's going to have success. His struggles have always been against the changeup and curveballs and I'm surprised they haven't made the adjustments yet. Saying all that, he has really shown some quick hands and is barrel the ball quite nicely against both righties and lefties.

 

I think he could start getting more playing time which could come from Kim.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

For some reason major league pitchers keep trying to throw fastballs to him and as long as they do he's going to have success. His struggles have always been against the changeup and curveballs and I'm surprised they haven't made the adjustments yet. Saying all that, he has really shown some quick hands and is barrel the ball quite nicely against both righties and lefties.

 

I think he could start getting more playing time which could come from Kim.

Shhhhh, Tony, don't put that stuff here.   Maybe the opponents are reading this board.   Don't help them!

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