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Enough is enough, Tillman does not need another start

Barnaby Graves

By Barnaby Graves
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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The O's have an off day this Thursday, so I simply skip Tillman's turn in the rotation this time through.    Then the next two times, I give the ball to Ynoa or anyone else with a pulse.   Then the O's have off days on both the 25th and 28th, so no sixth starter is needed.    Done.

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backwardsk Hangout Grand Counsel

backwardsk

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

The O's have an off day this Thursday, so I simply skip Tillman's turn in the rotation this time through.    Then the next two times, I give the ball to Ynoa or anyone else with a pulse.   Then the O's have off days on both the 25th and 28th, so no sixth starter is needed.    Done.

I'd line it up like this:

Bundy, Hellickson, Gausman (NYY)

Wright, Miley, Bundy (Cle) -six days for Bundy because of the offday Thursday

Gausman, Hellickson, Wright/Ynoa (Tor)

Miley, Bundy, Gausman, Hellickson (NYY)

Wright/Ynoa, Miley, Bundy (Bos)

Gausman, Hellickson, Wright, Miley (TB)

Gausman, Bundy (PItt)

Hellickson, Miley, Gausman (TB)

Bundy --Wildcard

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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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On 8/5/2017 at 6:09 PM, Nevermore said:

Nice article about resigning Chris Tillman.  I trust that Oriole fans didn't boo him off the mound when Buck removed him from the game.

Meh, he gives the Orioles too much credit for letting the market determine value. Is that what happened with Davis?

I do, however agree with his premise of Tillman getting a reasonable one year deal. Not sure I agree with his numbers, but I get they have to make it worth his while. I like the idea of incentives getting him up to the level of what he made this year.

Tillman (5.7 fWAR) gets the benefit of the doubt for his performance as an Oriole compared to Jimenez (4.8 fWAR) over the life of the contract he signed with the Orioles. Tillman was paid $21 million over those four years and Jimenez was paid more than double that ($50 million).

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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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4 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

I'd line it up like this:

Bundy, Hellickson, Gausman (NYY)

Wright, Miley, Bundy (Cle) -six days for Bundy because of the offday Thursday

Gausman, Hellickson, Wright/Ynoa (Tor)

Miley, Bundy, Gausman, Hellickson (NYY)

Wright/Ynoa, Miley, Bundy (Bos)

Gausman, Hellickson, Wright, Miley (TB)

Gausman, Bundy (PItt)

Hellickson, Miley, Gausman (TB)

Bundy --Wildcard

Pretty good. As I was trying to point out in the other thread, there are other options besides Tillman or Jimenez.

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Three Run Homer Hangout Veteran Council

Three Run Homer

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To be clear, I don't think the O's should DFA Tillman.  Let him stay in the bullpen and get mop-up work.  If the O's are eliminated from the playoffs, let him get one more start so the fans can say goodbye.  

But I don't think the O's should resign Tillman to a major league contract.  A minor league contract with a spring training invite and a chance to prove that his stuff and command have returned is all I would offer.  One thing I learned while looking up comparably bad seasons historically is that it is extremely rare for a pitcher to have a season this bad and ever pitch effectively in the majors again, unless the pitcher is very young (like Halladay, or Cal McLish who was knocked around the NL at age 18 during WWII and became a good pitcher a few years later).   Odds are that Chris Tillman will never pitch well in the majors again.

 

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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On ‎9‎/‎3‎/‎2017 at 11:37 PM, Three Run Homer said:

Chris Tillman is a great Oriole.  He deserves more loyalty than most players on the team.  But it is ridiculous that he is still getting regular starts.  

How bad is Tillman's season, in historical context?  Here are all of the pitchers since 1901 with 18 or more starts and an ERA above 7.50 in a season.

Chris Tillman, 2017:  20 G, 18 S, 83.1 IP, 7.85 ERA

Hideo Nomo, 2004:  18S, 84.1 IP, 8.25 ERA

Mike Moore, 1995:  25S, 132 IP, 7.53 ERA

Steve Blass, 1973, 23G, 18S, 88.2 IP, 9.85 ERA

Claude Willoughby, 1930 Phillies (Baker Bowl):  41G, 24 S, 153 IP, 7.59 ERA 

Les Sweetland, 1930 Phillies, 34 G, 25 S, 167 IP, 7.71 ERA

There are other pitchers who have had higher ERAs in fewer starts, like Brian Matusz in 2011 or Roy Halladay in 2000, but their managers pulled them from the rotation before they could get to 18 starts.  The only 2 pitchers to get 18 or more starts in MLB history with an ERA higher than 7.85 are Hideo Nomo in 2004 and Steve Blass in 1973 (the gold standard for terrible seasons by a pitcher).

For the love of God, Buck...please stop this.  

 

Bud Norris with his 2-9 record and 7.06 ERA in 2015 would have been this team's 3rd worst starter.  Scary!

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