How would you rather spend $300 mm?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Norfolk orioles said:

His half ass non chalant throw to first and miss of the ball lined at him that allowed in the tying run are just par for the course for him these days

I'll grant you the nonchalant throw to first.    The other play was a diving backhand stop of a rocket down the line that 75% of 3B don't even touch.    Even if it sticks in his glove, there's no way he stops that run from scoring on the play.    There's absolutely nothing negative to say about that play.   

[Il BuonO]

Someone else said it and I agree, they need to work hard to extend Manny after the season and if it can't be worked out then trade him. Letting him walk for a pick would almost be criminal.

[Norfolk orioles]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'll grant you the nonchalant throw to first.    The other play was a diving backhand stop of a rocket down the line that 75% of 3B don't even touch.    Even if it sticks in his glove, there's no way he stops that run from scoring on the play.    There's absolutely nothing negative to say about that play.   

Old manny before the weight gain catches that. I have little to no doubt about that.

The bigger point is his attitude sucks and his half-assery and nonchalant attitude are extremely apparent when compared with how he first played ball when he was a 1st and 2nd year player.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Norfolk orioles said:

Old manny before the weight gain catches that. I have little to no doubt about that.

The bigger point is his attitude sucks and his half-assery and nonchalant attitude are extremely apparent when compared with how he first played ball when he was a 1st and 2nd year player.

I couldn't disagree more with your opinion.

[Norfolk orioles]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I couldn't disagree more with your opinion.

That's how I know I'm right

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Norfolk orioles said:

That's how I know I'm right

Well, there you go.

Going into tonight, Manny was hitting .317/.378/.512 this September.    He's one of two players on the team with an OPS over .700 this month.   One 0 for 4 game hardly means he's playing like he doesn't care.    He had a bad day at the plate.   It happens.   

[Norfolk orioles]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, there you go.

Going into tonight, Manny was hitting .317/.378/.512 this September.    He's one of two players on the team with an OPS over .700 this month.   One 0 for 4 game hardly means he's playing like he doesn't care.    He had a bad day at the plate.   It happens.   

His talent is undeniable.

That is not what we were discussing though.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Norfolk orioles said:

His talent is undeniable.

That is not what we were discussing though.

You had cited his 0 for 4 day at the plate as evidence that Manny "has totally checked out."    I think that's absurd considering Manny is one of the few Orioles who's hit at all this month.    I also think it's absurd to cite the play where he knocked down the smash down the line as evidence that he's checked out.    It was an excellent play to keep that from being a double down the line, and he couldn't have kept the runner from scoring from 3rd even if he'd caught it cleanly.    Even if you're right that he would have caught the ball three years ago (you do realize it had bounced, right?), I don't see that it has anything to do with his attitude.   

Really, the only play that can reasonably be questioned is the one where he fielded a hot smash in the hole and took too long to get rid of it, and Davis bailed out his low throw with a nice scoop.    I already said that was a poor effort.   But to say that means he's "totally checked out" is way over the top.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here's a thought exercise:  would you rather sign (1) Manny for 10/$300 mm, or (2) Schoop for 8/$150 mm, Bundy for 8/$100 mm and Gausman for 5/$50 mm?   Assume that if you sign Manny, you'll lose the other three when they become free agents because the team can't afford to pay them  at FA prices while also paying Manny.    And assume that if we don't sign Manny, we can lock up the other three on the specified terms.    

As a refresher, without extensions the team controls Manny for 1 more year, Schoop for 2, Gausman for 3 and Bundy for 4.    The contract terms I proposed above include the years that they'd be under team control (so, for example, Bundy's 8 year deal includes the next 4 years under team control, plus 4 additional years).

I would keep them all.  The assumption  that they all can't stay O's is wrong.  

Bundy can''t be a free agent until after 2022.   That is the time the Davis contract expires.

Next year Hardy 14m, Jimenez 13.5m. Miley 8.75m  Castillo 6m. Smith 7 are probably all gone   That is 49.75m   More than enough to sign Manny.  Manny probably only get 20m the first year of his deal anyway. Brach is probably traded this off season  The is another 3M gone

After 2012 Britton is probably gone after 2018 taking his 13m with him.

Trumbo 13.5m and O'day  9m  for a total of 22.5m are got after 2019.   Gausman can't be a free agent until after the 2020 season.   

As long as the O's continue to develop talent like Hays ,Scott, Mullins, Stewart etc they can keep adding low cost talent to replace expensive contracts.      Its  a bad assumption to think the O's can't keep Manny, Schoop, Bundy and Gausman IMO.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I would keep them all.  The assumption  that they all can't stay O's is wrong.  

Bundy can''t be a free agent until after 2022.   That is the time the Davis contract expires.

Next year Hardy 14m, Jimenez 13.5m. Miley 8.75m  Castillo 6m. Smith 7 are probably all gone   That is 49.75m   More than enough to sign Manny.  Manny probably only get 20m the first year of his deal anyway. Brach is probably traded this off season  The is another 3M gone

After 2012 Britton is probably gone after 2018 taking his 13m with him.

Trumbo 13.5m and O'day  9m  for a total of 22.5m are got after 2019.   Gausman can't be a free agent until after the 2020 season.   

As long as the O's continue to develop talent like Hays ,Scott, Mullins, Stewart etc they can keep adding low cost talent to replace expensive contracts.      Its  a bad assumption to think the O's can't keep Manny, Schoop, Bundy and Gausman IMO.

 It's a thought exercise, as I said.   I'm not suggesting it's an actual choice we are facing.    It's a hypothetical.    

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 It's a thought exercise, as I said.   I'm not suggesting it's an actual choice we are facing.    It's a hypothetical.    

Yes, I know.  I thought about it and I think they all can be signed.

[24fps]

Bundy at 12.5 mill AAV?  That's Ubaldo money, hand me a pen.  Gausman at $10 mill AAV?  That's Britton money.  I'll hang onto that pen thankyouverymuch.

$30 million for a single player?  I agree with those who think Manny will cost more, but even granting that number for the sake of discussion, I think it's time to consider the benefits of playing YOUR game and not somebody else's (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers et. al.).  The Orioles aren't going to outspend the "big market" teams during the Angelos stewardship of the franchise.  Time to recalibrate expectations and strategy IMO.  Let's start by swearing off empty terms like "franchise player" and instead become slavishly devoted to net gain in terms of value spread across the team as a whole.

And maybe it's time to revisit the benefits of doctrinal flexibility from the manager's position when it comes time to define what constitutes value...

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, 24fps said:

Bundy at 12.5 mill AAV?  That's Ubaldo money, hand me a pen.  Gausman at $10 mill AAV?  That's Britton money.  I'll hang onto that pen thankyouverymuch.

You have to take into account the years they are under team control. Bundy is under control for 4 years, which probably look something like $600 k, $4 mm, $7.5 mm, $12 mm.     Thus, 8/$100 mm means paying him something like $19 mm/yr for the four FA seasons.   Gausman is under control for 3 more years, probably at something like $5 mm/$8.5 mm/$12 mm, so 5/$50 mm means paying him $12 mm/yr or so for two FA years.

Eyeballing that, I was probably a little too high on Bundy and a little too low on Gausman.    But those details are unimportant for this exercise, because I'm not offering up the Schoop, Bundy and Gausman deals individually.    The question is, if you could sign those three players for the total number of years I specified for the same amount it would take to sign Manny for ten years, and you had to choose, which would you do.    And don't say "we can do both."   Maybe we can, but in my hypothetical, we can't.    So choose.

[FlipTheBird]

I've long maintained that, though it will be painful to watch Manny Machado leave... the Orioles, at least given all $$$ indications we've gotten, simply don't have the budget to sign Manny Machado longterm and still address the other needs this organization has.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You have to take into account the years they are under team control. Bundy is under control for 4 years, which probably look something like $600 k, $4 mm, $7.5 mm, $12 mm.     Thus, 8/$100 mm means paying him something like $19 mm/yr for the four FA seasons.   Gausman is under control for 3 more years, probably at something like $5 mm/$8.5 mm/$12 mm, so 5/$50 mm means paying him $12 mm/yr or so for two FA years.

Eyeballing that, I was probably a little too high on Bundy and a little too low on Gausman.    But those details are unimportant for this exercise, because I'm not offering up the Schoop, Bundy and Gausman deals individually.    The question is, if you could sign those three players for the total number of years I specified for the same amount it would take to sign Manny for ten years, and you had to choose, which would you do.    And don't say "we can do both."   Maybe we can, but in my hypothetical, we can't.    So choose.

I already chose in roughly the 13th post in this thread.  (I miss having the posts in a thread numbered).   If you read the post you quoted carefully, I've already granted you your hypothetical.  To be clear, I simply don't think throwing fistfuls of money at a player for an extended period of time is a good approach for a team constrained by a realistic budget, which would include the Orioles.  That being said, I also think it's time for the Orioles to do a little more than just pay lip service to the need for good starting pitching, so that might take me a little ways outside my personal comfort zone in terms of contract length.  But I'm a believer in Bundy and Gausman, so to me the choice is easy - I'll take Bundy, Gausman and Schoop.

I understand that the salaries wouldn't be paid in equal amounts.  I agree that $19 million for Bundy's last four years seems excessive in 2017.  Probably less so beginning in 2022.   I can see Gausman commanding more than 5/50.