Some final CERA numbers

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Tillman: Castillo 13 games 9.53 ERA, Joseph 6 games 6.85 ERA

Jimenez: Castillo 14 games 8.36 ERA, Joseph 14 games 5.88 ERA

Miley: Castillo 19 games 6.80 ERA, Joseph 13 games 4.06 ERA

Gausman: Castillo 14 games 7.53 ERA, Joseph 19 games 2.62 ERA

Bundy: Castillo 19 games 4.06 ERA,  Joseph 9 games 4.64 ERA

Hellickson: Castillo 6 games 7.45 ERA, Joseph 4 games 6.35 ERA

Team: Castillo 5.60 ERA, Joseph 4.23 ERA.

Coincidence?    Maybe, but I don't want to find out.    I'm hoping Castillo opts out of his contract.

 

 

 

 

I don't think there's a coincidence at all. 

[LookitsPuck]

You know how I feel about Castillo. All hit, little glove.

I don't like his game calling. I think he suffered from Wieters Syndrome, i.e. too many fastballs. And I also think he did a poor job framing.

I actually do buy into the CERA argument. But more-so because I think some catchers are markedly poor at tailoring game plans and pitch framing. 

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

My opinion is it's mostly pitch-calling.    But I can't back that up with any facts, other than that I don't think framing can account for a differential of multiple runs per game for several of these pitchers.   

Looking at a couple sources of pitch framing, if you take Caleb's best Framing Runs Saved over the 621 innings he caught, the change from about 12 runs saved to 0 would increase his catcher ERA by about .17.

If you take Castillo's worst framing numbers over his 753 innings he caught, the change from about -13 runs saved to 0 saved would decrease his catcher ERA by about .15.

So in conclusion, at most the difference in catcher ERA explained by pitch framing is about .32. A significant amount, but not nearly the gap between the two.  I think random variation probably explains most of it, along with a little bit of Joseph providing a better target and perhaps being a bit better at calling pitches.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

You know how I feel about Castillo. All hit, little glove.

I don't like his game calling. I think he suffered from Wieters Syndrome, i.e. too many fastballs. And I also think he did a poor job framing.

I actually do buy into the CERA argument. But more-so because I think some catchers are markedly poor at tailoring game plans and pitch framing. 

But it's easier to throw guys out if they throw fastballs.

 

We knew what Beef was when they signed him.  This is the reason he was non-tendered.

Check out how much better the Diamondbacks' pitching was this year.

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

But it's easier to throw guys out if they throw fastballs.

 

We knew what Beef was when they signed him.  This is the reason he was non-tendered.

Check out how much better the Diamondbacks' pitching was this year.

 

Yes, but Castillo was also their starting catcher in 2015 when their pitching was much better than 2016.

I do think random variation explains a lot.   But when 5 of 6 starters have ERA's more than a run higher with Castillo, and in most cases multiple runs higher, something's up.    

[baltfan]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, that's an interesting point.   The DBacks had a 5.09 ERA last year, 3.66 this year.   When Castillo caught it was 5.04; they had two backups, one of whom did better and one of whom did worse, in about equal playing time for those two.    So, it's tough to say whether the DBacks were bad because of Castillo.    They had a pretty good staff in 2015 and Castillo had a 4.10 CERA that year.

I have heard that was why they didn’t want him back. In particular, they weren’t happy with the way he handled Greinke. 

Here is an article on the effect of Castillo’s poor framing.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Yes, but Castillo was also their starting catcher in 2015 when their pitching was much better than 2016.

I do think random variation explains a lot.   But when 5 of 6 starters have ERA's more than a run higher with Castillo, and in most cases multiple runs higher, something's up.    

Joseph should be Gausman's personal catcher until proven otherwise. I wonder how much the staff could be fixed just be getting rid of Castillo. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Joseph should be Gausman's personal catcher until proven otherwise. I wonder how much the staff could be fixed just be getting rid of Castillo. 

I'm not blaming Beef for Miley, Tillman or Ubaldo.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not blaming Beef for Miley, Tillman or Ubaldo.

Their ERA's were considerably better with Joseph.    However, Tillman's and Ubaldo's were still terrible (6.85 and 5.88), while Miley's was at least respectable (4.06).