Baseball Prospectus: Top 50

[weams]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/34933/2018-free-agent-50-part-1/

 

 

[ChuckS]

The writer predicts that the A's sign Darvish.  That's laughable.  Was there a sale of the team that I'm not aware of?

Otani going to the Yankees would be sickening. 

Hard to believe that Cobb (30) is older than Arrieta (32).  Seems like Cobb has been around forever and Arrieta just figured out how to pitch fairly recently. 

I don't see us in on any of the top 20.  Maybe Cobb or Lynn if there price is reasonable but I doubt that given the lack of depth of SP.  

[Frobby]

I thought the article was pretty poor quality.    

[ArtVanDelay]

On 11/11/2017 at 12:26 PM, ChuckS said:

The writer predicts that the A's sign Darvish.  That's laughable.

Actually he didn’t.  That was the random number generator.  The writer predicted Dodgers. 

[Tryptamine]

Yeah, that's a pretty garbage article. Cubs need 2+ starters and and several more relievers with 65M to spend and apparently Mike Minor will be their only acquisition in FA. Chicago would be after Theo's head for wasting a year of Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras etc.

[Roll Tide]

On 11/11/2017 at 12:33 PM, Frobby said:

I thought the article was pretty poor quality.    

Yep...Typical! Everyone signs with the Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, Dodgers and Red Sox.

[ChuckS]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Yep...Typical! Everyone signs with the Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, Dodgers and Red Sox.

Yes, but that is also a safe assumption.  Those teams do tend to poach the premium free agents if history is any indicator.  

[Frobby]

Fangraphs has its list up, and projections by both Dave Cameron and fangraphs crowdsourcing as to what they’ll be paid:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/.    As to the top starting pitchers (Cameron first, then the median crowdsource):

Darvish 6/$168, 5/$125

Arrieta 4/$96, 5/$110

Cobb 4/$60, 4/$56

Sabathia 2/30, 2/36

Lynn 3/$48, 4/$60

Chatwood 3/$30 (not crowdsource)

Garcia 2/$20, 3/$36

Vargas 2/$16, 2/$20

Cashner 2/$20, 2/$22

Pineda 2/$16, 2/$16

Chacin 2/$16, 2/$20

Hellickson 1/$7, 2/$18

Fister 1/$9, 1/$8

 

 

 

 

[ChuckS]

I'd be in on Cobb, Lynn, Chatwood, Vargas, and possibly Garcia and Chacin at those prices.  Not unreasonable.

There's no reason at all we can't sign two pitchers out of that group.  One of Cobb or Lynn and any one starter from that next tier (Chatwood, Vargas, Garcia, and Chacin) would be ideal. Cobb and Lynn I think are clearly at the top of that second tier of free agent starters after Arrieta and Darvish, so I would be satisfied with getting one of them. 

Cashner will get more than 2/22 after what he did last year in Texas but that 4.61 FIP and 4.6 K/9 numbers are ugly.  I'd stay away. 

 

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs has its list up, and projections by both Dave Cameron and fangraphs crowdsourcing as to what they’ll be paid:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/.    As to the top starting pitchers (Cameron first, then the median crowdsource):

Darvish 6/$168, 5/$125

Arrieta 4/$96, 5/$110

Cobb 4/$60, 4/$56

Sabathia 2/30, 2/36

Lynn 3/$48, 4/$60

Chatwood 3/$30 (not crowdsource)

Garcia 2/$20, 3/$36

Vargas 2/$16, 2/$20

Cashner 2/$20, 2/$22

Pineda 2/$16, 2/$16

Chacin 2/$16, 2/$20

Hellickson 1/$7, 2/$18

Fister 1/$9, 1/$8

 

 

 

 

I believe to get most on these players the O's have to outbid the other teams by 2m per year or an extra year on the contract.   This is for two reasons.  1) FA pitchers do not want to pitch in Camden Yards if they have a good alternative. and 2) the O's were a last place finisher and are not considered a contender by many as the off season begins. 

Therefore here is how I look at this list:

Arreta and Darvich: too expensive, the O's will not even put in a bid.

Cobb and Lynn: 4/68m is required.  The O's will not offer 5 years.  The O's will not go as high a 17m per year for 4 years.

Sabathia:  O's will not go 3 years.   2/40 is too rich for the O's.  2/34  is also too much for the O's considering his age.  He probably can't pass the physical..

Chatwood: 3/36 is possible

Cashner 2/26 is possible

Garcia 2/24 is possible:  3/42 is not

Vargas 2/20 maybe,  2/24m is a stretch.  3 years unlikely

Pineda, Chacin unlikely

Hellickson O's not interested

Fister 1/10 or 11 is possible.  They may be able to get him for 1/8 because he is a dumpster dive.

Tillman  is not on the list but is possible on a incentive contract.

Mikolas could also be realistic.