Trey Mancini: Role Player or Star?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

Today was a great example of why Trumbo is a poor comp for Mancini. They swung at basically the same pitches, but the difference is Mancini can reach the ones he swings at because his bat speed is good and his plate coverage is frankly monstrous. Foul balls are struck with authority and the AB is extended, giving him a better chance to get on base or see a better pitch.

Meanwhile those are pitches that Trumbo whiffs on. He has one bat path and almost no ability to have a defensive swing to prolong an AB. 

We are not comparing 2018 Mancini to 2018 Trumbo, who appears to be in serious decline.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

We are not comparing 2018 Mancini to 2018 Trumbo, who appears to be in serious decline.

I wager young Trumbo did not look nearly as competent with a bat as Mancini does. Mancini simply has better coverage and bat control and I think he's very clearly on the way to being a more productive hitter in his career than Trumbo has been.

[Beef Supreme]

5 hours ago, Babypowder said:

Trumbo and he swung at a nearly identical rate at balls outside the strike zone, Mancini slightly higher. Trumbo has more power, less batting average. I think it's quite a good comp for future value. Above average bat for COF, but below average defense. Likely average defense at 1B, but also average offense. The total package being around league average. That's what prime Trumbo was.

Trumpbo has had a whole lot less batting average, that's for sure. A whole lot less OBA because of it, too. And a lower slugging percentage tied to the lower batting average, as well. Last year, Mancini outslugged Trumpbo .488 to .397; that's 34 points higher than the separation between their batting averages. They have comparable power.

Besides 2016, "prime Trumbo" was not comparably as good as last season's Mancini. Trumpbo could always hit homeruns, but he can't hit himself on base very well nor walk his way on base. He's a slow runner, which hurts him at bat, on the bases, and in the field. Except for HR rate, prime Trumpbo is in a lower tier than Mancini in nearly every facet of the game.

 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Trumpbo has had a whole lot less batting average, that's for sure. A whole lot less OBA because of it, too. And a lower slugging percentage tied to the lower batting average, as well. Last year, Mancini outslugged Trumpbo .488 to .397; that's 34 points higher than the separation between their batting averages. They have comparable power.

Besides 2016, "prime Trumbo" was not comparably as good as last season's Mancini. Trumpbo could always hit homeruns, but he can't hit himself on base very well nor walk his way on base. He's a slow runner, which hurts him at bat, on the bases, and in the field. Except for HR rate, prime Trumpbo is in a lower tier than Mancini in nearly every facet of the game.

 

Trumpbo? 

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I concur, he'll probably continue to be an average regular, maybe average-plus.  He's going into his age 26 season, he's unlikely to have a great leap forward. 

How could he become a star?  It's limited.  He's almost certainly not going to become a plus fielder.  He's unlikely to see his plate discipline surge, incremental gains are more likely.  His value in 2017 was in part due to a .293 batting average.  He was a .306 hitter in the minors.

So for him to become a 4+ win player, I think he has to have a year where he's a +0 left fielder, and he'll have to hit at least .300/.350/.550.  Last year he hit .293/.338/.488, with a -5 in left.  Maybe he does that for a few years.  His Marcels is .288/.342/.498.

To me he looks a lot like Mark Trumbo.  But a 26-year-old Mark Trumbo making league minimum isn't a bad thing to have around.

Yep, all of this. He's a useful player for us to have, it's just a shame that we already have two of him. 

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Trumpbo has had a whole lot less batting average, that's for sure. A whole lot less OBA because of it, too. And a lower slugging percentage tied to the lower batting average, as well. Last year, Mancini outslugged Trumpbo .488 to .397; that's 34 points higher than the separation between their batting averages. They have comparable power.

Besides 2016, "prime Trumbo" was not comparably as good as last season's Mancini. Trumpbo could always hit homeruns, but he can't hit himself on base very well nor walk his way on base. He's a slow runner, which hurts him at bat, on the bases, and in the field. Except for HR rate, prime Trumpbo is in a lower tier than Mancini in nearly every facet of the game.

 

Mancini in 2017- 117 wRC+

Trumbo in 2012- 124 wRC+

Trumbo in 2016- 125 wRC+

What is your arguement that Mancini's 2018 season was superior to Trumbo's 2012 and 2016 campaigns?

 

[Beef Supreme]

48 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Trumpbo?

Damn auto-correct.

[Beef Supreme]

33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mancini in 2017- 117 wRC+

Trumbo in 2012- 124 wRC+

Trumbo in 2016- 125 wRC+

What is your arguement that Mancini's 2018 season was superior to Trumbo's 2012 and 2016 campaigns?

 

Trumbo in his prime is Trumbo in his 20's, to me. The consensus on OH is that 30 years old is past-prime. My argument is that, based on last year, Mancini is faster, he is the better baserunner, better outfielder and better hitter than Trumbo, with comparable power.

Mancini out-wRC+ -ed Trumbo in the other five of the seven seasons he has played. In 71% of Trumbo's seasons he has fallen short of Mancini's wRC+. What is your argument?

[Beef Supreme]

Mancini in 2017- 117 wRC+

Trumbo in 2011- 109 wRC+
Trumbo in 2013- 107 wRC+
Trumbo in 2014- 90 wRC+
Trumbo in 2015- 107 wRC+
Trumbo in 2016- 80 wRC+

You can have Trumbo. I will take my chances with Mancini.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Trumbo in his prime is Trumbo in his 20's, to me. The consensus on OH is that 30 years old is past-prime. My argument is that, based on last year, Mancini is faster, he is the better baserunner, better outfielder and better hitter than Trumbo, with comparable power.

Mancini out-wRC+ -ed Trumbo in the other five of the seven seasons he has played. In 71% of Trumbo's seasons he has fallen short of Mancini's wRC+. What is your argument?

That we don't have enough data points time conclusively say Trumbo isn't a valid comp.  Mancini's career to date follows within the general parameters of Trumbo's.  

 

[Luke-OH]

9 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I concur, he'll probably continue to be an average regular, maybe average-plus.  He's going into his age 26 season, he's unlikely to have a great leap forward. 

How could he become a star?  It's limited.  He's almost certainly not going to become a plus fielder.  He's unlikely to see his plate discipline surge, incremental gains are more likely.  His value in 2017 was in part due to a .293 batting average.  He was a .306 hitter in the minors.

So for him to become a 4+ win player, I think he has to have a year where he's a +0 left fielder, and he'll have to hit at least .300/.350/.550.  Last year he hit .293/.338/.488, with a -5 in left.  Maybe he does that for a few years.  His Marcels is .288/.342/.498.

To me he looks a lot like Mark Trumbo.  But a 26-year-old Mark Trumbo making league minimum isn't a bad thing to have around.

That .300/.350/.550 line pretty much jives with the best case scenario I suggested at the end of the article. Improvements to K and BB rate helping the AVG/OBP slightly. The increased launch angle helping the ISO towards .250, being a scratch LF.

I hope I was clear that this is a very low probability outcome and really more of a mental exercise to see what it would take for him to be a 4+ WAR player.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

That we don't have enough data points time conclusively say Trumbo isn't a valid comp.  Mancini's career to date follows within the general parameters of Trumbo's.  

 

He wasn't a comp in my article due to a weaker debut season, but he's a fair guy to compare Mancini to. I like Mancini's swing better, but I can see the comparison. 

[Beef Supreme]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That we don't have enough data points time conclusively say Trumbo isn't a valid comp.  Mancini's career to date follows within the general parameters of Trumbo's. 

 

True and that will always be the case finding comps for rookies by using veterans.

[johnegogo]

Can we be happy with a Mancini who will be a slightly better than average offensive player and not a total liability in the field? Solid long term starter under control at at decent salary. What is not to love about that? 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, johnegogo said:

Can we be happy with a Mancini who will be a slightly better than average offensive player and not a total liability in the field? Solid long term starter under control at at decent salary. What is not to love about that? 

That's basically my take, that's an average starter, and a good piece.