Cobb only thread

[Aglets]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

 

He said "nothing in his history".  I consider a repaired labrum and a bout of shoulder tendinitis (throwing arm) things.

Now was he covered in red flags?  No.  But he didn't have a clear history.

You're sure to win the semantics wars here if that's what you want.

But the bottom line is the was signed to a 4 year, $31M deal which was entirely reasonable at the time.

He had been worth 1.3 - 1.9 WAR every year since he'd been in an Oriole uniform.  It's not an amazing value but an average of 8M / year for O'Day should not really set you back that much.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, MDtransplant757 said:

It's all about staying healthy with him. Him plus brach and Givens is lethal

Naw, the Yankees bullpen is lethal.  They have nothing but weapons.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aglets said:

You're sure to win the semantics wars here if that's what you want.

But the bottom line is the was signed to a 4 year, $31M deal which was entirely reasonable at the time.

He had been worth 1.3 - 1.9 WAR every year since he'd been in an Oriole uniform.  It's not an amazing value but an average of 8M / year for O'Day should not really set you back that much.

Hip surgery and a stint on the 60 day DL is semantics now?  Sure, OK, if that is what you want. 

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Naw, the Yankees bullpen is lethal.  They have nothing but weapons.

Chapman should bounce back, I've never been a fan of Betances and i think some regression will hit them and Boston. They'll be good, but I have my reservations. 

[Aglets]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Hip surgery and a stint on the 60 day DL is semantics now?  Sure, OK, if that is what you want. 

Yes, because you're removing the context that he had just pitched for four consecutive years post-injury with no related issues stemming from those injuries. A rational person would not really consider those injuries to seriously impact his value at that point.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Yes, because you're removing the context that he had just pitched for four consecutive years post-injury with no related issues stemming from those injuries. A rational person would not really consider those injuries to seriously impact his value at that point.

Who said anything about seriously impacting his value?

 

But I don't think it is rational to not factor in something as serious as hip surgery.  You certainly shoudln't just ignore it.

[Redskins Rick]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

He said "nothing in his history".  I consider a repaired labrum and a bout of shoulder tendinitis (throwing arm) things.

Now was he covered in red flags?  No.  But he didn't have a clear history.

a brief bout of shoulder tendinitis in pitchers is not uncommon at all and you had to go back to 2011, for the 1 time occurrence.

So yes, you are correct, I wasn't exactly clear, when I stated history, as far as I was concerned, his time with the Orioles showed a very depended and healthy pitcher, and while Buck has his faults, he doesn't burn out relievers like Tony LaRussa did.

 

[Aglets]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who said anything about seriously impacting his value?

 

But I don't think it is rational to not factor in something as serious as hip surgery.  You certainly shoudln't just ignore it.

I'm not really interested in talking around the issue.

Either you think 4 years 31M was a reasonable price to pay to extend O'Day at that point in time, or you do not.   I'd appreciate you answering that upfront if you want to keep looking at old injuries.

Rick and I (and the O's obv) think that that was fine, since he had no serious recent injury history at that time. 

Bonus question:   Do you think teams bidding for Manny next offseason are going to be worried about his knees?  Assume he has another 156 game season this year at typical Manny - level production.

[Redskins Rick]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who said anything about seriously impacting his value?

 

But I don't think it is rational to not factor in something as serious as hip surgery.  You certainly shoudln't just ignore it.

As he had any hip issue since his hip was repaired?

You would have to admit, hip surgery is not normally a place where pitchers break down.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aglets said:

I'm not really interested in talking around the issue.

Either you think 4 years 31M was a reasonable price to pay to extend O'Day at that point in time, or you do not.   I'd appreciate you answering that upfront if you want to keep looking at old injuries.

Rick and I (and the O's obv) think that that was fine, since he had no serious recent injury history at that time. 

Bonus question:   Do you think teams bidding for Manny next offseason are going to be worried about his knees?  Assume he has another 156 game season this year at typical Manny - level production.

First off of course I don't think it was sensible to give a 33 year old relief pitcher a four year deal.  I'm not in favor of 3+ year deals for relief pitchers or players over 30 so of course I woudln't be in favor of someone that was both.  

Yes I do think that teams will factor in Manny's medical history when offering him a contract.  It woudln't be rational to ignore it.  Now does that mean that they won't try and sign him?  Of course not, but it will be one of many things they consider.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

As he had any hip issue since his hip was repaired?

You would have to admit, hip surgery is not normally a place where pitchers break down.

Pitchers use their lower half.

All I have been saying is that it was an issue and should have been a factor.

Are you saying you wouldn't have considered it at all when you are talking about a four year deal?

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Pitchers use their lower half.

All I have been saying is that it was an issue and should have been a factor.

Are you saying you wouldn't have considered it at all when you are talking about a four year deal?

Are the Orioles Doctors physicals tough to pass?

He passed it twice, at least, maybe 3 times.

So yes, I would have considered it before doing a 4 year deal.

But, he had a hamstring, and not anything related to the hip surgery.

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

First off of course I don't think it was sensible to give a 33 year old relief pitcher a four year deal.  I'm not in favor of 3+ year deals for relief pitchers or players over 30 so of course I woudln't be in favor of someone that was both.  

Yes I do think that teams will factor in Manny's medical history when offering him a contract.  It woudln't be rational to ignore it.  Now does that mean that they won't try and sign him?  Of course not, but it will be one of many things they consider.

Alright, I understand your position and I get that you are striving for intellectual consistency here with your 'rules' for signing RPs and players over 30. 

I'm sure you're aware that if a GM actually tried to live by those principles they just simply wouldn't sign any of those players, certainly not ones that are likely to contribute much.   You will get some mediocre folk or maybe some guys with heavy baggage like Tillman who are trying to resurrect their value.

I think player's will be aware of Manny's knee surgeries but only in the academic sense.  In the way that when you order a chicken sandwich at a restaurant I'm sure you're 'aware' that there's a chance you could get bones in it but the impact that that 'perceived risk' has on your willingness to order said sandwich is probably as close to 0 as possible.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Are the Orioles Doctors physicals tough to pass?

He passed it twice, at least, maybe 3 times.

So yes, I would have considered it before doing a 4 year deal.

But, he had a hamstring, and not anything related to the hip surgery.

I never suggested that his hip has been a problem.  Just that it should  have been (and I'm sure was) considered.  It was a pretty serious injury.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

Alright, I understand your position and I get that you are striving for intellectual consistency here with your 'rules' for signing RPs and players over 30. 

I'm sure you're aware that if a GM actually tried to live by those principles they just simply wouldn't sign any of those players, certainly not ones that are likely to contribute much.   You will get some mediocre folk or maybe some guys with heavy baggage like Tillman who are trying to resurrect their value.

I think player's will be aware of Manny's knee surgeries but only in the academic sense.  In the way that when you order a chicken sandwich at a restaurant I'm sure you're 'aware' that there's a chance you could get bones in it but the impact that that 'perceived risk' has on your willingness to order said sandwich is probably as close to 0 as possible.

I think it will have enough of an impact that one or more teams will offer less years than they would have otherwise.

Of course it is unprovable.