Why we could be "good again" sooner than many expect

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Dipper9 said:

5 Beckham

Beckham is not a DH.  He can't hit. 

[Frobby]

I don’t expect to see a winning team any time soon.   But it would be possible to put together a team that plays much better defense and plays fundamentally sound baseball, that would be much more enjoyable to watch than the current team.   

I feel like over the years I’ve seen a number of Twins, Angels and Rays teams that were sub-.500 but still pretty enjoyable to watch.    

[terpoh]

17 hours ago, wildcard said:

What makes you think that Bundy will not be traded?    

With the O's trade everyone that is making money approach  I don't see this team contending until 2023.    If that is true Bundy and Givens will be on the block this off season.

The infielder Grenier, Carmona, Encarnacion , Adam Hall will probably not be ready to contend until that time.

Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall will probably not be established in the rotation and knowledge about the league until 2023.

Orioles.com profile is not sure whether Tate is a starter or a reliever and the same could be said for Hunter Harvey's durability.

#3's, 4's and 5s  Akin,  Oritz may be ready sometime next year to make it to the majors but they have to learn the league which could mean 2020 before they are competitive. 

I think we should not think this process will be a short one.  2023 contention sounds about right.

I think that 2021 is realistic for a competitive roster pitching wise. Even in your scenario if Akin and Ortiz get their feet wet next year and are presumably competitive in 2020. By 2021 they should be reliable starters in our rotation. If we have Bundy, and those guys are on that trajectory thats a solid 3 by 2020/2021. Cobb is still under contract for 2021, but who knows if he'll still be around or if he'll be worth anything as a starter. I wouldnt bank on him being anything more than a 5 starter. Tate/Yefry/Kremer/Rogers/Zimmerman/Harvey/Kremer are guys that are within that 2019-2021 time frame as well. 

 In addition- I like that DD had compiled a number of near MLB ready power arms for the bullpen. You'd have to think that some combination of: Pop/Carroll/Kline/Givens/Scott/Bleier/Phillips/Wright/Castro will be a solid foundation for a good pen. This could also include Tate, Harvey and Kremer if they dont pan out in the rotation. Lowther/Baumann and DL Hall COULD potentially be guys in 2021 as well if they stay on their track. Thats a large group of talented arms for the bullpen/rotation without even looking at draft, international or out of the organization acquisitions. 

I get what you're saying with a 2023 projection but if you're talking 5 years from now, then even those guys who debut NEXT year will already be a year away from free agency. I'd imagine the goal is to be competitive before then, and I think the arms are in place to do so.

[Bradysburns]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

My point was that there is more of a damage per ball put into play now.  A guy just isn't going to make it with a K rate under 3.  Defenders are better and positioning is improved and yet BABIP is up and slugging is up.

 

Interesting... any idea why? Are batters just more powerful in general, etc.? Hard to believe BABIP is up over historic numbers, when guys like Davis are hitting into the shift, night after night. 

[Bradysburns]

9 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

They need a LOT to develop to become good.

But I won't be surprised if they win more games next year than this year despite a younger and more anonymous roster. 

This is kinda the spirit of what I was saying... not that we're going to spank the Yankees and Redsox like my momma spanked me (with a sandal... she was Irish). I'm just saying we could win more than expected, and be fun to watch much sooner than expected. 

[Bradysburns]

10 hours ago, atomic said:

Cobb won't be traded with his contract.  

This team will be awful next season.  We will still have 3 DHs in Mancini,  Trumbo and Davis.   

I'm amazed at how down people are on Cobb. Go look at the guy's track record. He's 30, somewhat fresh off Tommy John... and in my view, WAAAY underrated by many on the board. 

Cobb has TOR potential, without a doubt... and a lifetime ERA of 3.81. 

And that includes his forgettable 2018 campaign. 

I fully expect him to bounce back and become a stud for us. If we can then trade him to a contender next deadline... great. But I don't think his performance as an Orioles represents his true talent. I think he'll likely revert toward his norms next year. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, terpoh said:

I think that 2021 is realistic for a competitive roster pitching wise. Even in your scenario if Akin and Ortiz get their feet wet next year and are presumably competitive in 2020. By 2021 they should be reliable starters in our rotation. If we have Bundy, and those guys are on that trajectory thats a solid 3 by 2020/2021. Cobb is still under contract for 2021, but who knows if he'll still be around or if he'll be worth anything as a starter. I wouldnt bank on him being anything more than a 5 starter. Tate/Yefry/Kremer/Rogers/Zimmerman/Harvey/Kremer are guys that are within that 2019-2021 time frame as well. 

 In addition- I like that DD had compiled a number of near MLB ready power arms for the bullpen. You'd have to think that some combination of: Pop/Carroll/Kline/Givens/Scott/Bleier/Phillips/Wright/Castro will be a solid foundation for a good pen. This could also include Tate, Harvey and Kremer if they dont pan out in the rotation. Lowther/Baumann and DL Hall COULD potentially be guys in 2021 as well if they stay on their track. Thats a large group of talented arms for the bullpen/rotation without even looking at draft, international or out of the organization acquisitions. 

I get what you're saying with a 2023 projection but if you're talking 5 years from now, then even those guys who debut NEXT year will already be a year away from free agency. I'd imagine the goal is to be competitive before then, and I think the arms are in place to do so.

Thanks for the response.  That's a really good post.

I think the question is will the O's have TOR starters.  I am not sure the O's will pay Bundy over the next three years the way they are talking about cutting payroll.  If there is no Bundy  I don't see any thing but #3-5 starters.    The next TOR starter are DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez.   Both are way in the future and we can't expect them to be TOR as rookies. It might take them 3 years to reach that level.

I do think the current O's management can put together a good pen.  However I don't know who will be the management team after this year.   That could effect the rebuild positively or negatively.

And the Infield prospects of years away from developing into to establish major leaguers.

[osfan83]

20 hours ago, wildcard said:

What makes you think that Bundy will not be traded?    

With the O's trade everyone that is making money approach  I don't see this team contending until 2023.    If that is true Bundy and Givens will be on the block this off season.

The infielder Grenier, Carmona, Encarnacion , Adam Hall will probably not be ready to contend until that time.

Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall will probably not be established in the rotation and knowledge about the league until 2023.

Orioles.com profile is not sure whether Tate is a starter or a reliever and the same could be said for Hunter Harvey's durability.

#3's, 4's and 5s  Akin,  Oritz may be ready sometime next year to make it to the majors but they have to learn the league which could mean 2020 before they are competitive. 

I think we should not think this process will be a short one.  2023 contention sounds about right.

Well I don't think the organization is targeting 2023...we just traded for a bunch of 23-25 year olds.....those guys will be 28-30 by 2023. I think Dan believes we have a WC shot in 2020, and should be contending for a division in 2021. 

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

Well I don't think the organization is targeting 2023...we just traded for a bunch of 23-25 year olds.....those guys will be 28-30 by 2023. I think Dan believes we have a WC shot in 2020, and should be contending for a division in 2021. 

Who are the 3B, SS and 2B in 2021 and  do you really think rookies at those positions equal a contender?

 

[osfan83]

48 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Who are the 3B, SS and 2B in 2021 and  do you really think rookies at those positions equal a contender?

 

Two years is a long time....in 2010 I would have laughed if you said the O's will be in the playoffs two years later. If the young players show promise at the MLB level in 2019, two of your future infielders may be acquired in the off season before 2020. Villar might not return to 2016 all-star status, but he might not be too far off of that. Maybe Mountcastle hits well enough to forgive his C level 3B defense.  So we sign a very good FA SS for 2020. 

They might suck for the next 15 years....but it don't think it's crazy to think in August 2020 we might be within a few games of the second WC spot, and on the edge of our seats watching Oriole baseball again.