An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[Jammer7]

17 hours ago, weams said:

I think it will be a pitcher at 1:1

We’ll see, Weams. In the history of the draft, a HS pitcher is the riskiest proposition, by far. There is much written on it with a lot of data to back it up. And none of the college arms are looking worthy, not even close. It would be reckless to just take a HS pitcher because we need pitching depth at the ML level. You can take an all star impact bat at 1:1, and then take four pitchers in a row after that if that is what you think you need to do. But, if you want to actually build something, you cannot pass up the best player available at 1:1 for ML needs. Todd Van Poppel vs. Chipper Jones comes to mind when Atlanta had a similar decision. 

[Greg Pappas]

Rutschman (C), Witt Jr (SS), Green (OF), and Hinds (3B) are my VERY early favorites. While none of these guys are sure-thing Top 5 draft picks at this point (no one is), Bobby Witt, Jr seems to have the highest ceiling.  Witt is very fast, has a great arm, a good glove at SS (and should be able to stick at SS in the Pros) very good power, a quick bat, and is a baseball rat.  He lives and breathes baseball.  He seems like a good, humble kid, but doesn't lack for confidence. These are quality traits.  I've read that some scouts are concerned with whether he'll project be a good enough hitter to hit big league pitching. If he can alleviate those concern, then the odds are he'll be the favorite to go #1.  

[Obando]

Adley Rutschman is my choice for 1:1, because finding top catchers that can hit, hit for power & play good defense are very hard to find, and AR can do it all.  In my opinion, he could become what we all thought Wieters was going to be, not to mention he’s closer to the big leagues than Witt Jr.  I also like that he played football early in college, so this guy is clearly a natural athlete, and I have read that he’s a great leader with excellent makeup.  

I think Witt Jr. is a great prospect, and in most years, I would want to take him 1st overall, but I just feel like Rutschman is more of a sure thing, and he has produced at the highest level of college baseball (including for Team USA) at one of the toughest positions to play and was the MVP for his national championship team as a sophomore, while Witt has less of a track record with some uncertainty about how the bat will play at the highest levels.  You have to love the bloodlines though.

Finally, I’m even more partial to Adley Rutschman because my oldest son’s name is Adley, and it’s such an uncommon name (especially in baseball) that I just think it would be amazing to have an Adley on the Orioles one day, not to mention one that could be a superstar.

 

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Obando said:

Adley Rutschman is my choice for 1:1, because finding top catchers that can hit, hit for power & play good defense are very hard to find, and AR can do it all.  In my opinion, he could become what we all thought Wieters was going to be, not to mention he’s closer to the big leagues than Witt Jr.  I also like that he played football early in college, so this guy is clearly a natural athlete, and I have read that he’s a great leader with excellent makeup.  

I think Witt Jr. is a great prospect, and in most years, I would want to take him 1st overall, but I just feel like Rutschman is more of a sure thing, and he has produced at the highest level of college baseball (including for Team USA) at one of the toughest positions to play and was the MVP for his national championship team as a sophomore, while Witt has less of a track record with some uncertainty about how the bat will play at the highest levels.  You have to love the bloodlines though.

Finally, I’m even more partial to Adley Rutschman because my oldest son’s name is Adley, and it’s such an uncommon name (especially in baseball) that I just think it would be amazing to have an Adley on the Orioles one day, not to mention one that could be a superstar.

 

I've said before that Rutschman is my early favorite for #1, but so much depends on how these young men perform over the winter and next Spring. Rutschman may have another great season, or he might fall back a bit. Witt or even another player may really skyrocket and solidify a #1 ranking pre-draft.  It's way too soon to know.

[Ripken]

Adding Witt Jr and V^2, along with 4 other top 100 picks, international signings, young long-shots, 3 or 4 Rule Vs, and whomever else, will be exciting.  Hopefully Davis ends up on the moon during that process, too.

[cboemmeljr]

On 9/2/2018 at 12:57 PM, Jammer7 said:

At 1-1? A HS pitcher is way too risky at 1-1, for me. Not a chance I would ever take him there. And I don’t love the arm action either. It screams labrum surgery.

Here's another video:

 

[Luke-OH]

I'm not crazy about Espino, great arm, no doubt, but I'd rather go potential impact bat at a premium defensive position, Witt Jr, Abrams, and Rutschman seem like the prime candidates with some of the college SS also in play if they make a jump in the spring like Stott, Jones, Davidson, etc.

I'd use the bonus pool to grab projectable arms later on. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

I'm not crazy about Espino, great arm, no doubt, but I'd rather go potential impact bat at a premium defensive position, Witt Jr, Abrams, and Rutschman seem like the prime candidates with some of the college SS also in play if they make a jump in the spring like Stott, Jones, Davidson, etc.

I'd use the bonus pool to grab projectable arms later on. 

Have we had a right handed HS pitcher go 1-1?

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Have we had a right handed HS pitcher go 1-1?

No, I don't think so. 

[baltfan]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Have we had a right handed HS pitcher go 1-1?

We haven't and the one that everyone said would have gone 1:1 but for an injury was Giolito.  

Can't afford to whiff on this pick.  Go with a position player.  

Best 1:1 pitcher ever by WAR is Andy Benes, although Strasburg will likely catch him.  Not a great track record.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, baltfan said:

We haven't and the one that everyone said would have gone 1:1 but for an injury was Giolito.  

Can't afford to whiff on this pick.  Go with a position player.  

Best 1:1 pitcher ever by WAR is Andy Benes, although Strasburg will likely catch him.  Not a great track record.

I do think a number of teams would have taken Verlander 1-1.

[baltfan]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do think a number of teams would have taken Verlander 1-1.

Fair, but he was also a college pitcher.  The names being thrown about here are high school boys.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Fair, but he was also a college pitcher.  The names being thrown about here are high school boys.

Sorry, I had forgotten he went to college.

Obviously right handed college pitchers have gone 1-1.

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, cboemmeljr said:

Here's another video:

 

He’s obviously very talented. But these guys that can throw 100 mph in HS rarely pan out. That is a lot of wear and tear on a young arm. Espino may turn out, as may Kopech, to prove conventional thought wrong. That is all fine and wonderful as they are a small percentage of those who ended up never making it past AAA. To me, the risk is just too great at 1:1.

The O’s cannot afford to miss on this pick. For me, an everyday impact bat almost always has greater value than a pitcher, even a starter. The Orioles need to keep focusing on adding quality pitching depth and premium athletes, especially those who can play up the middle. But at 1:1, you have to go best talent available. 

[Jammer7]

19 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I've said before that Rutschman is my early favorite for #1, but so much depends on how these young men perform over the winter and next Spring. Rutschman may have another great season, or he might fall back a bit. Witt or even another player may really skyrocket and solidify a #1 ranking pre-draft.  It's way too soon to know.

I am a big fan of Rutschman. I am just a bit leery of taking a catcher at 1:1, not saying I wouldn’t, just leery. As with Wieters, the legs take a beating at C. The legs are where the power comes from. That said, Buster Posey sure would be worthy. The only knock I had on Rutschman was that I don’t see him as more than average defensively. Solid receiver, just not a real difference maker defensively. That means, to me, the bat has to be extraordinary. Not sure I would say his bat is at that level just yet.