Fangraphs: Competitive Windows - Rays Fourth Best?

[hoosiers]

16 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Tampa is a wonderfully run organization who understands what they are and carefully manicure their roster to be cheap and to be a .500 roster.  Then, if things go right, a few guys have career years, the take 81 wins and turn it into something closer to 90 and a shot at the playoffs.

The Rays most certainly do NOT "manicure their roster" to be a .500 team.  Next year's Rays will be comfortably better than .500 and it is likely the Rays have a three to four year window at the least - and likely longer window than what is ahead of the BoSox.  The Rays invest in their farm system.  They invest internationally.  They make very few long term large contract commitments.  They sign their best players to bargain contracts that buy-out the first year or two of free agency.  They trade their best players near peak value for quality minor league prospects.  They are very aware of the competitive positioning of their team.

I have posted here about 100 times - Os fans love the Bedard trade, but don't want to do it again if the team is competitive even if guaranteed that the return will be outstanding.  Think of the all the players the Os have held past their prime in the last 15 years - let's start with Melvin Mora.  A utility player in a trade with the Mets, Mora became a 2.5+ WAR player in his age 29 season and then provided over 4 WAR annually for less than $4M annually for the next four seasons!  How about trading Mora entering the last year of a bargain contract 3 years/$10.5M in his age 34 season.  No, let's see his production fall by 50% to 2.2 WAR and then sign him to a 3 year $25M extension through his age 37 season!  Think of all the players the Os have held past peak production and think of the return the Os could have received had they dealt JJohnson, BRob, Markakis, Wieters, Davis, Hardy, Britton, Manny and others at the right point in their production/value curve.  Hindsight may be 20/20, but that curve generally falls around the first  or second year of arbitration around the age 26/27 season.  Folks here have to decide if they want to win or have a core of players hang around into their early 30s when their production wanes and injuries generally set in.  

To look at it another way - the Rays are the sixth best team in the AL.  They are 6 games back in the second wild card and a month ago, traded one of their best SPs for a failed SP prospect and other prospects.  Even if not good enough this year, the Rays were well set up for next year with Archer.  Would you be prepared to do that if you were an Os fan?

[weams]

5 hours ago, hoosiers said:

The Rays most certainly do NOT "manicure their roster" to be a .500 team.  Next year's Rays will be comfortably better than .500 and it is likely the Rays have a three to four year window at the least - and likely longer window than what is ahead of the BoSox.  The Rays invest in their farm system.  They invest internationally.  They make very few long term large contract commitments.  They sign their best players to bargain contracts that buy-out the first year or two of free agency.  They trade their best players near peak value for quality minor league prospects.  They are very aware of the competitive positioning of their team.

I have posted here about 100 times - Os fans love the Bedard trade, but don't want to do it again if the team is competitive even if guaranteed that the return will be outstanding.  Think of the all the players the Os have held past their prime in the last 15 years - let's start with Melvin Mora.  A utility player in a trade with the Mets, Mora became a 2.5+ WAR player in his age 29 season and then provided over 4 WAR annually for less than $4M annually for the next four seasons!  How about trading Mora entering the last year of a bargain contract 3 years/$10.5M in his age 34 season.  No, let's see his production fall by 50% to 2.2 WAR and then sign him to a 3 year $25M extension through his age 37 season!  Think of all the players the Os have held past peak production and think of the return the Os could have received had they dealt JJohnson, BRob, Markakis, Wieters, Davis, Hardy, Britton, Manny and others at the right point in their production/value curve.  Hindsight may be 20/20, but that curve generally falls around the first  or second year of arbitration around the age 26/27 season.  Folks here have to decide if they want to win or have a core of players hang around into their early 30s when their production wanes and injuries generally set in.  

To look at it another way - the Rays are the sixth best team in the AL.  They are 6 games back in the second wild card and a month ago, traded one of their best SPs for a failed SP prospect and other prospects.  Even if not good enough this year, the Rays were well set up for next year with Archer.  Would you be prepared to do that if you were an Os fan?

Well written. If the club stays in Baltimore, it may well have to go with the tiny payroll churn and burn model. 

[tntoriole]

On 9/16/2018 at 4:18 PM, Can_of_corn said:

That's what #1 overall draft picks are for.

And we will probably have two or three of those in a row. 

[Cumberbundy]

10 hours ago, esmd said:

I dunno if I buy 4th best team in baseball, but Tampa has put together a pretty nice season, especially considering they play NYY and Boston 38 times.  Oakland is also under the radar, putting up a very nice season in the West and pushing Houston.  The AL playoffs are loaded.

They got a better pitcher than Archer for Archer while we got a container of turd scented bleach for Gausman.

[Cumberbundy]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

And we will probably have two or three of those in a row. 

Or 14. 

[esmd]

1 hour ago, Cy Bundy said:

They got a better pitcher than Archer for Archer while we got a container of turd scented bleach for Gausman.

??  And that has what to do with the topic, or my post, exactly?

[Ballmer Bruce]

My kingdom for the management that runs that team. They are stuck with a terrible ballpark in a terrible location with low revenue.  With all those limits they will win more that 90 games this year.

[Cumberbundy]

14 hours ago, esmd said:

??  And that has what to do with the topic, or my post, exactly?

The Glasnow trade made them better today while extending their window, my kind and gentle friend. 

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, Cy Bundy said:

The Glasnow trade made them better today while extending their window, my kind and gentle friend. 

The same could be said of the Schoop/Villar trade.  Villar already has 1.3 WAR as an Oriole and carries a $2.6M annual salary while Schoop is at .2 WAR with an $8.5M salary.  Plus we picked up prospects.  Kind of remarkable how well DD did in this trade, but folks want to belly-ache up a storm of complaints in the Gausman deal which was one-third a salary dump, one-third prospects and one-third international slots.  I think DD did quite well in both deals.