Extending Home Grown vs FA

[Dark Helmet]

So we should let Wieters walk?

Depends. Are yo ok, if the O's are paying a 35 year old sub .800 OPS catcher 25M per year? If you think Wieters is magically going to accept a team friendly 4 year deal, then I think your going to be very disappointed. Scott Boras will start at 10/250M for Wieters. I'd say 7/150 will be about where Boras wants Wieters to be. No way PA will pay Matt Wieters that kind of money.

[Dark Helmet]

You do realize that the team went to the playoffs last year? I don't understand the people who recognize that the team made some more money last year because they were a good team that was in the race and made the playoffs, but seem to ignore the part where we were in the race and made the playoffs.

The O's are not, and have never been, a "pauper team." Nor does their payroll suggest that they are.

To be fair, anybody that said in march of last year, that the O's would win 93 games and make the playoff's, would probably have gotten asked what they're smoking. It's great to remember they went to the playoff's, but you can't completely rule out how they did it. They could have just as easily won 82 games. And, if the same exact breaks don't go there way in 2013, that's probably what we can expect, give or take.

[Frobby]

Frobby, that's my point.

WE made it last year because of over-performance, excellent managing, the Red Sox collapsing and the Blue Jays not presenting too much of a major threat. We had some stellar - but unlikely - performances from our bullpen and got extremely lucky with the SPs.

If anyone believes we will reproduce the 2012 season without significant upgrades is being incredibly unrealistic. It feels like people believe that because we contended last year with the ridiculous small-town-invisible-market mentality that infests these conversations is setting themselves up for disappointment. I was VERY happy we made it, I watched like 90% of the games on TV or the internet, I went to a few of the playoff games in OPACY and NYC and I truly love this team.

I just want them to be ACTIVE and stop behaving like we're broke. Is that too much to ask? Does that make me a "troll?"

Again, we got VERY lucky last year. That won't happen twice. We need a Hamilton and at least two TOR starters. Proven guys.

We've got the money to do it. We can do it. Some fans on OH absolutely refuse to for some reason.

MSK

I think we had a fair amount of good fortune last year, but the performance in the second half was very strong and I'm not as pessimistic as you about what would happen if we "stood pat." Of course, right now Saunders and McLouth are free agents and Reynolds may be non-tendered, and I don't believe we can just let those guys disappear without replacing them with players who are as good or better. I don't expect them to go get Hamilton or any top of the rotation starters. I don't even bother debating whether they can afford to do it or not -- I don't really know what they can afford, and I just find that I avoid driving myself crazy if I just assume the Orioles aren't going to spend a lot of money on free agents. So, will just see what they do and then form an opinion as to whether they've done enough to contend, or not.

[MemorialStadKid]

I don't necessarily disagree with all your points, but I'm interested in knowing who over performed last year? I'm assuming you mean by over performed is a player who had a career year or a player that will most likely not duplicate last season's performance.

For one thing the bullpen was an incredible thing but I don't see us breaking a 1-run winning deferential record again.

Adam Jones is good, but without some protection in the lineup, I don't see him having the same offensive stats. Weiters should not hit 5th or 6th. Again, not without some protection in the lineup.

Markakis should be as good or slightly better.

Reynolds should be gone.

BRob, Hardy and Reimold are - right now - touch and go. We have no idea what kind of offensive power we can expect from those guys if they make it out of ST with no injuries or mental issues.

We are a team full of question marks outside of the core. I want the Orioles to make the playoffs again and make the WS! I don't see that happening if we stand pat or make those weird moves the Orioles like to make where we might get lucky (McClouth) or we might not (Thome).

MSK

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

For one thing the bullpen was an incredible thing but I don't see us breaking a 1-run winning deferential record again.

Adam Jones is good, but without some protection in the lineup, I don't see him having the same offensive stats. Weiters should not hit 5th or 6th. Again, not without some protection in the lineup.

Markakis should be as good or slightly better.

Reynolds should be gone.

BRob, Hardy and Reimold are - right now - touch and go. We have no idea what kind of offensive power we can expect from those guys if they make it out of ST with no injuries or mental issues.

We are a team full of question marks outside of the core. I want the Orioles to make the playoffs again and make the WS! I don't see that happening if we stand pat or make those weird moves the Orioles like to make where we might get lucky (McClouth) or we might not (Thome).

MSK

And yet you want us to sign the biggest question mark in baseball at $25m per year.

[Dark Helmet]

For one thing the bullpen was an incredible thing but I don't see us breaking a 1-run winning deferential record again.

Adam Jones is good, but without some protection in the lineup, I don't see him having the same offensive stats. Weiters should not hit 5th or 6th. Again, not without some protection in the lineup.

Markakis should be as good or slightly better.

Reynolds should be gone.

BRob, Hardy and Reimold are - right now - touch and go. We have no idea what kind of offensive power we can expect from those guys if they make it out of ST with no injuries or mental issues.

We are a team full of question marks outside of the core. I want the Orioles to make the playoffs again and make the WS! I don't see that happening if we stand pat or make those weird moves the Orioles like to make where we might get lucky (McClouth) or we might not (Thome).

MSK

We saw that the last few weeks of the season and into the playoffs. Jones' started pressing, and swinging at the low and away sliders again. I'd just keep throwing that to him. If he walks, the odds of getting him in anyhow, is slim.

[MemorialStadKid]

And yet you want us to sign the biggest question mark in baseball at $25m per year.

Is that what I said?

MSK

[Dark Helmet]

And yet you want us to sign the biggest question mark in baseball at $25m per year.

Ok, we need a TOR SP. How about Grienke? What's the excuse going to be for not wanting him? He's not a true TOR starter? He had anxiety attacks year's ago? He's never won 20 games in a season? He'd get shelled in the AL East? It's always going to be something.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Depends. Are yo ok, if the O's are paying a 35 year old sub .800 OPS catcher 25M per year? If you think Wieters is magically going to accept a team friendly 4 year deal, then I think your going to be very disappointed. Scott Boras will start at 10/250M for Wieters. I'd say 7/150 will be about where Boras wants Wieters to be. No way PA will pay Matt Wieters that kind of money.

I think your #'s are off. He's under control for 3 more seasons. For those 3 seasons combined he'll be lucky to make $15m. The other 4 are not going to cost over $30m a piece.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Is that what I said?

Uh, yeah...

We need a Hamilton and at least two TOR starters. Proven guys.

and don't even tell me you meant "a guy like Hamilton but not actually Hamilton".

[Frobby]

I think your #'s are off. He's under control for 3 more seasons. For those 3 seasons combined he'll be lucky to make $15m. The other 4 are not going to cost over $30m a piece.

Wieters will make more than $15 mm over the next three years, but you are right that 7/$150mm is way high, even for Boras. Now, getting Boras below 7/$100mm might be a bit of a challenge.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Ok, we need a TOR SP. How about Grienke? What's the excuse going to be for not wanting him? He's not a true TOR starter? He had anxiety attacks year's ago? He's never won 20 games in a season? He'd get shelled in the AL East? It's always going to be something.

I love Greike. I don't need to make excuses for why we shouldn't sign him but I do suspect he'll get more money than what I'd be willing to pay him. I assume even you (and MSK) have some line in the sand you're not willing to cross. Right?

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Wieters will make more than $15 mm over the next three years, but you are right that 7/$150mm is way high, even for Boras. Now, getting Boras below 7/$100mm might be a bit of a challenge.

You're right, and I agree with your post in the thread which posed this question

Rough estimate:

2013: $3.5 - $5 mm

2014: $6.0 - $7.5 mm

2015: $8.0 - $12.5 mm

That assumes he stays a sub-.800 OPS guy.

So he might make $25 over the next 3 seasons if he goes to FA. If we buy out his 3yrs of arbitration for $35m and offer ~$18m-$20m a year for the 4yrs after that. I could see 7/$115m.

[mark_beckens]

Depends. Are yo ok, if the O's are paying a 35 year old sub .800 OPS catcher 25M per year? If you think Wieters is magically going to accept a team friendly 4 year deal, then I think your going to be very disappointed. Scott Boras will start at 10/250M for Wieters. I'd say 7/150 will be about where Boras wants Wieters to be. No way PA will pay Matt Wieters that kind of money.

That's not the answer to his comment. He said mediocre players, I don't classify Wieters as mediocre.

[DrungoHazewood]

Depends. Are yo ok, if the O's are paying a 35 year old sub .800 OPS catcher 25M per year? If you think Wieters is magically going to accept a team friendly 4 year deal, then I think your going to be very disappointed. Scott Boras will start at 10/250M for Wieters. I'd say 7/150 will be about where Boras wants Wieters to be. No way PA will pay Matt Wieters that kind of money.

No way anyone will pay that. Mauer is the only catcher who's ever gotten a contract like that, and that deal looks pretty insane two years in. And Mauer was coming off some of the best years any catcher ever had. It seems absurd (save for some massive overall revenue increases in the sport) that Wieters would ask for a Pujols deal and settle on a Mauer.