Extending Home Grown vs FA

[scOtt]

Right on! Lets just go ahead and rant and rave right now because PA isn't spending enough in 2015. Come on, man. We had a great season and have a good core of players. There really aren't that many spots that we need to fill, and DD is on top of it. We don't even have the list of non-tenders yet. The Orioles are not at the bottom of the salary list by any means. Why get all up in arms at this point? Have a little patience, let it play out and see what happens. No reason to get your blood in a boil prematurely.

Not to mention the fact that it's November 2012. Have a little patience for a week til the winter meetings START. A month til the holiday break, two months til most of 2013's roster is set. I'd advise a little patience for TA but then he'll ask me how many more years and then say I'm an Angelos apologist. :rolleyestf:

[Roll Tide]

That's crazy that you would have given Prince that. I have felt that our difference on Hamilton was a matter of us having different opinions on what he will get in free agency. Now it seems like you are willing to pay these guys MUCH more then I am.

At some point you'd have to pay what it would take to get it done. You'd be the same as Angelos and a number of other posters here. Willing to offer 8/160 when you know there is no way in hell that gets it done. Why bother at all?

[Roll Tide]

LOL you love the hyperbole and putting things in people's mouth you don't agree with don't you? We just want spend $200 million using Pet's "bottomless pit of money!" Yay!! That is what makes you look stupid when trying to argue your point, because NO ONE has said anything of the sort. Ever.

I think the Orioles can afford $120 million a year in salary, probably more but we will just leave it at that for now since you need a specific number.

I also wouldn't pay Hamilton more than $120 million.

Is that clear enough for you or do I need to repeat myself?

Since Hamilton and Grienke are not options according to you, who ARE some options next year, or the year after? Will anyone EVER be an option?

And good business models don't structure things on a year to year basis, they plan things out for the multiple years to plan accordingly with their budget. Professional sports teams are no different. Obviously things will fluctuate a little bit but if you aren't looking into the future and trying to stay one step ahead there is a problem.

Nobody ever in free agency .... We need to resign our own ... Seriously overpay to extend Wieters and his long slow swing, because he is homegrown and therefore we need to keep him.

[Brendan25]

LOL you love the hyperbole and putting things in people's mouth you don't agree with don't you? We just want spend $200 million using Pet's "bottomless pit of money!" Yay!! That is what makes you look stupid when trying to argue your point, because NO ONE has said anything of the sort. Ever.

I think the Orioles can afford $120 million a year in salary, probably more but we will just leave it at that for now since you need a specific number.

I also wouldn't pay Hamilton more than $120 million.

Is that clear enough for you or do I need to repeat myself?

Since Hamilton and Grienke are not options according to you, who ARE some options next year, or the year after? Will anyone EVER be an option?

And good business models don't structure things on a year to year basis, they plan things out for the multiple years to plan accordingly with their budget. Professional sports teams are no different. Obviously things will fluctuate a little bit but if you aren't looking into the future and trying to stay one step ahead there is a problem.

Here is where you have our argument work. We aren't saying that the O's can't afford a 120M payroll. We are saying that we think Hamilton is too expensive, and if we don't get Hamilton, I'm not just going to spend 20M to spend it to get up to 120M just because we can get there. If we don't get Hamilton, I'd rather go after McLouth (Ross I'd be okay with also). That gives us one of those two with Jones, Markakis, and Reimold. We are set at 3B and SS. There are no options for a better 2B. Wieters and Davis is back.

Are you trying to say that just because the O's can afford a 120M payroll that on opening day next year that's how much their payroll should be? That's foolish.

[Brendan25]

At some point you'd have to pay what it would take to get it done. You'd be the same as Angelos and a number of other posters here. Willing to offer 8/160 when you know there is no way in hell that gets it done. Why bother at all?

I'd rather not offer at all then be stuck with that contract.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

LOL you love the hyperbole and putting things in people's mouth you don't agree with don't you? We just want spend $200 million using Pet's "bottomless pit of money!" Yay!! That is what makes you look stupid when trying to argue your point, because NO ONE has said anything of the sort. Ever.

I think the Orioles can afford $120 million a year in salary, probably more but we will just leave it at that for now since you need a specific number.

I also wouldn't pay Hamilton more than $120 million.

Is that clear enough for you or do I need to repeat myself?

Since Hamilton and Grienke are not options according to you, who ARE some options next year, or the year after? Will anyone EVER be an option?

And good business models don't structure things on a year to year basis, they plan things out for the multiple years to plan accordingly with their budget. Professional sports teams are no different. Obviously things will fluctuate a little bit but if you aren't looking into the future and trying to stay one step ahead there is a problem.

Hamilton and Greinke are options. They're probably just not in our price range. You said it yourself, you're capping Hamilton at $120m. I assume that means when he signs somewhere for more than that you'll acknowledge you were wrong, and that the O's shouldn't have been buyers at his inevitable price.

The only difference between you and I is that I've set a slightly lower cap on what I'd pay for Hamilton (5/$100m). So, short of him signing somewhere else for a number between $100-$120m we'll either both agree it was too much too pay, or we'll both be pissed we didn't step up and sign him.

I am not opposed to trades for Butler, Headley, or Hosmer... I think we can trade some of our young SP's and guys like Chris Davis and Strop could really help land a true MOO or TOR. I simply prefer to trade for players while they're in their prime then overpay for them when they're in their 30's. I don't know what's wrong with that mentality, but I'm sure you'll enlighten me.

I'll just ignore the insults and the name calling. You'll slip up sooner or later, say the wrong thing to the wrong person, and suddenly we won't be seeing post from you anymore.

[Frobby]

Nobody ever in free agency .... We need to resign our own ... Seriously overpay to extend Wieters and his long slow swing, because he is homegrown and therefore we need to keep him.

I guess that is intended as a sarcastic remark. I can tell you right now, if I had the choice of using $80 mm to sign Hamilton for the next four years, or using it to extend Wieters through 2019 (i.e., pay him the $80 mm for his four FA years), I'd spend it on Wieters. I believe in his defensive value, I believe in his game-calling, I believe in his leadership, and I believe that his best offensive years are yet to come. If that makes me a blind homer, so be it. Per fangraphs (admittedly, not the definitive source of all baseball wisdom), Wieters has been worth $40.9 mm the last two years, while Hamilton has been worth $37.9 mm. I'll spend the money on the guy who has been doing it in an Orioles uniform. I'm not saying that's the only way to see it, but it is certainly not an absurd position.

Now, if you want to argue that we have the resources to do both things, that is another argument entirely. But if we have to choose, I'm choosing Wieters.

[TradeAngelos]

I guess that is intended as a sarcastic remark. I can tell you right now, if I had the choice of using $80 mm to sign Hamilton for the next four years, or using it to extend Wieters through 2019 (i.e., pay him the $80 mm for his four FA years), I'd spend it on Wieters. I believe in his defensive value, I believe in his game-calling, I believe in his leadership, and I believe that his best offensive years are yet to come. If that makes me a blind homer, so be it. Per fangraphs (admittedly, not the definitive source of all baseball wisdom), Wieters has been worth $40.9 mm the last two years, while Hamilton has been worth $37.9 mm. I'll spend the money on the guy who has been doing it in an Orioles uniform. I'm not saying that's the only way to see it, but it is certainly not an absurd position.

Now, if you want to argue that we have the resources to do both things, that is another argument entirely. But if we have to choose, I'm choosing Wieters.

We don't have to choose.

[Frobby]

We don't have to choose.

Which would you choose if we did have to chose?

You can sit here all day and argue that we don't have to choose. None of us have the full facts about the Orioles' economics, and I just don't feel like driving myself crazy wishing the Orioles were going to suddenly decide to increase payroll by 30-50%. Maybe they could, maybe they couldn't, but they clearly aren't going to, so I'd rather think about how to spend the money they are willing to spend, instead of thinking about how to spend money they aren't willing to spend.

[scOtt]

We don't have to choose.

So the next couple years... Hamilton and Wieters @ 20 ea. Nick and Adam a conservative 25 total. Even at $120 m. payroll that leaves 55 mill for 21 players. $2.1 million average...

See how this all works?

[Brendan25]

So the next couple years... Hamilton and Wieters @ 20 ea. Nick and Adam a conservative 25 total. Even at $120 m. payroll that leaves 55 mill for 21 players. $2.1 million average...

See how this all works?

No because when Hamilton makes us better and we make the playoffs we get more revenue so then in 2 years we can then spend 200M in payroll which means we will have more room to pay those players.

No, they don't see.

[scOtt]

No because when Hamilton makes us better and we make the playoffs we get more revenue so then in 2 years we can then spend 200M in payroll which means we will have more room to pay those players.

No, they don't see.

Wait. This sounds like a Ponzi scheme...

[TradeAngelos]

Which would you choose if we did have to chose?

You can sit here all day and argue that we don't have to choose. None of us have the full facts about the Orioles' economics, and I just don't feel like driving myself crazy wishing the Orioles were going to suddenly decide to increase payroll by 30-50%. Maybe they could, maybe they couldn't, but they clearly aren't going to, so I'd rather think about how to spend the money they are willing to spend, instead of thinking about how to spend money they aren't willing to spend.

I take the younger player every single day of the week and twice on Sunday, without thinking twice. It isn't even a decision.

We have more than enough circumstantial evidence to suggest we do know what they are capable of IMO.

No one is asking to spend $200 million and be the Yankees. Just bump the payroll up from $100 to $120 million and this team will flat out contend year in and year out, because there will be that one superstar added to an already good playoff team and core. The Jays could have "stayed pat" but guess what, they saw the writing on the wall and have been acting accordingly recently. I just wish the O's would do the same. They still might, and if they do I will be the first one singing their praises. It isn't that much a payroll difference, but I think it makes the team so much better overall.

I am holding out hope.

Just think the margin for error is too small going with what we have into next year and the couple after that.

[Frobby]

No one is asking to spend $200 million and be the Yankees. Just bump the payroll up from $100 to $120 million and this team will flat out contend year in and year out.

This team will have a payroll close to $100 mm next year even if they don't sign a big star. They probably could sign Hamilton and keep payroll under $120 mm for 2013. After that, it gets harder.

[TradeAngelos]

This team will have a payroll close to $100 mm next year even if they don't sign a big star. They probably could sign Hamilton and keep payroll under $120 mm for 2013. After that, it gets harder.

We are at about $120 mm for 2013 keeping Reynolds and McLouth with X free agent (obv Grienke/Hamilton)

How does it get harder after that? We have money coming off the books every year until 2014, and then it is just Jones and presumably Wieters making the "big" money. Between the two they will probably be $20 mm between the two, maybe $22 mm at the most if we extend Wieters. Don't see how it gets harder at all.

Who is "the core" moving forward that we will have big bucks tied into? Jones, Wieters and who else?