ROY- Means or Alvarez?

[Philip]

Alverez has come on blazing. He’s been a great part of a great team and he’s done great things in a partial season. He is also a position player which means he plays basically every day

BUT

Means has been a great player on a horrible team, not just our best pitcher this year, but better than anybody we had last year too. Almost every team in MLB would be thrilled to have him. With even reasonable defense and/or relievers behind him, he might have 5 additional wins, and a much lower ERA.

What says the crowd?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

It's going to be Alavarez. The best Means can do is finish 2nd in the voting. Perhaps if Means was an Astro and had 15 wins right now, but he isn't. 

[Slappy]

Initially I thought this was a no-brainer for Alvarez. His OPS of over 1.100 is better than Mike Trout's, and Trout is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career. If he had enough at bats, Alvarez would be leading the AL in OPS as a rookie.  Almost unheard of.

On the other hand, Alvarez doesn't play defense, and his offense has been worth 3.9 WAR.  John Means has been (far and away) the O's best starter as a rookie, and has earned a higher WAR (4.6, 9th in the AL for pitchers).

On the other hand, Alvarez can contribute almost every day, Means only every 5th day.

It's closer than I thought.  I can see a case for either of them. But I think it goes to Alvarez based on the fact that Houston is a much better team with much better exposure.

[Philip]

2 minutes ago, Slappy said:

Initially I thought this was a no-brainer for Alvarez. His OPS of over 1.100 is better than Mike Trout's, and Trout is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career. If he had enough at bats, Alvarez would be leading the AL in OPS as a rookie.  Almost unheard of.

On the other hand, Alvarez doesn't play defense, and his offense has been worth 3.9 WAR.  John Means has been (far and away) the O's best starter as a rookie, and has earned a higher WAR (4.6, 9th in the AL for pitchers).

On the other hand, Alvarez can contribute almost every day, Means only every 5th day.

It's closer than I thought.  I can see a case for either of them. But I think it goes to Alvarez based on the fact that Houston is a much better team with much better exposure.

That’s exactly my conclusion as well, but I would really like someone to make a solid argument otherwise

[Redskins Rick]

11 minutes ago, Philip said:

That’s exactly my conclusion as well, but I would really like someone to make a solid argument otherwise

ask away

[wildbillhiccup]

I love Means, but what Alvarez has done in fairly limited ABs has been amazing. Means should finish second. 

[Ruzious]

Too bad they don't have the Rookie Pitcher of the Year award anymore.  

In the NL, pitcher Mike Soroka's probably going to lose out to phenoms Pete Alonzo and Fernando Tatis, Jr.  

 

[Il BuonO]

Alvarez has been consistently productive for a good team. If he wasn’t they’d likely have other options. 

Means had a stretch of forgettable games after the break and the defense or the bullpen had little to do with it. 

But, I’m I believer in WAR. Oh, btw Fangraphs has it 4 to 3.1 for Alvarez.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Slappy said:

Initially I thought this was a no-brainer for Alvarez. His OPS of over 1.100 is better than Mike Trout's, and Trout is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career. If he had enough at bats, Alvarez would be leading the AL in OPS as a rookie.  Almost unheard of.

On the other hand, Alvarez doesn't play defense, and his offense has been worth 3.9 WAR.  John Means has been (far and away) the O's best starter as a rookie, and has earned a higher WAR (4.6, 9th in the AL for pitchers).

On the other hand, Alvarez can contribute almost every day, Means only every 5th day.

It's closer than I thought.  I can see a case for either of them. But I think it goes to Alvarez based on the fact that Houston is a much better team with much better exposure.

Alvarez only has 351 at bats.  I think Alvarez wins going away. It is just like on here.  Almost Everythong threw out defense and put down Mancini as the most valuable Oriole.   And he is only 4th on the team in WAR.  People talk analytics a lot but at the end of the day they don't use it for things like this. 

[atomic]

14 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Alvarez has been consistently productive for a good team. If he wasn’t they’d likely have other options. 

Means had a stretch of forgettable games after the break and the defense or the bullpen had little to do with it. 

But, I’m I believer in WAR. Oh, btw Fangraphs has it 4 to 3.1 for Alvarez.

That is because Fangraphs uses bogus WAR to rate pitchers.  Since he only strikes out 7 batters per 9 innings Means loses WAR from fanagraphs.  As WAR is supposed to be used to tell how well you did and  isn't a predictive tool for future seasons it is a really awful way to judge Wins Above Replacement. 

[Il BuonO]

Just now, atomic said:

That is because Fangraphs uses bogus WAR to rate pitchers.  Since he only strikes out 7 batters per 9 innings Means loses WAR from fanagraphs.  As WAR is supposed to be used to tell how well you did and  isn't a predictive tool for future seasons it is a really awful way to judge Wins Above Replacement. 

Lol, ok. Well, I’m so relieved I have your expertise.

[atomic]

13 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Lol, ok. Well, I’m so relieved I have your expertise.

Look how Fanagraphs calculates WAR for pitchers.  It is a pretty meaningless stat. 

[Il BuonO]

7 minutes ago, atomic said:

Look how Fanagraphs calculates WAR for pitchers.  It is a pretty meaningless stat. 

So, strike outs are meaningless? Got it. 

 

[atomic]

12 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

So, strike outs are meaningless? Got it. 

 

Base hits matter as well.  

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, atomic said:

Alvarez only has 351 at bats.  I think Alvarez wins going away. It is just like on here.  Almost Everythong threw out defense and put down Mancini as the most valuable Oriole.   And he is only 4th on the team in WAR.  People talk analytics a lot but at the end of the day they don't use it for things like this. 

Analytics tells you that per team game or per plate appearance Alvarez is almost twice as valuable as John Means.  Alvarez has been arguably the best player in the AL since he was called up.  Means is a pretty good pitcher.  The only way Means wins is if you put 100% weight on counting stats and almost nothing on peak.