Brother Bill Goes Ya-Ya

[DrungoHazewood]

28 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I never got the fascination with this. After the first inning, none of it mattered.

I didn't watch the video, but did Billy mention that every single reasonable study ever done on lineup construction indicates that the difference between the best possible lineup and a totally nonsensical lineup nobody would ever use is like 20 runs a season?  Literally, a team with Mike Trout batting 3rd and the pitcher 9th might score as much as 20 runs more a season than a lineup with the pitcher batting third and Mike Trout 9th.

Who bats where in the lineup is far less important than proper refrigeration of the egg salad in the pre-game spread.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I never got the fascination with this. After the first inning, none of it mattered.

It matters marginally on the macro level.  Every spot in the batting order is ~18 PA's per year.

Here's this year's Orioles:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Batting 1st	174	162	760	706	106	192	37	4	18	74	27	8	46	158	.272	.320	.412	.732	291	11	4	3	1	0	8	.328	103	88
Batting 2nd	189	162	742	666	108	176	38	2	30	87	6	6	64	148	.264	.332	.462	.795	308	15	6	2	4	2	7	.297	118	94
Batting 3rd	190	162	721	659	92	170	36	2	32	92	3	0	50	167	.258	.313	.464	.778	306	17	6	0	6	1	12	.296	113	88
Batting 4th	184	162	702	636	93	157	30	2	38	112	2	2	52	172	.247	.309	.480	.789	305	5	8	0	6	1	1	.275	115	92
Batting 5th	180	162	688	619	84	168	27	3	20	87	10	6	55	151	.271	.336	.422	.758	261	12	8	0	5	1	6	.327	110	97
Batting 6th	192	162	672	611	64	146	29	2	22	75	10	1	50	149	.239	.303	.401	.704	245	19	7	1	3	1	6	.280	94	88
Batting 7th	185	162	655	584	62	122	20	2	19	59	8	4	54	176	.209	.285	.348	.633	203	7	10	3	4	2	5	.262	76	77
Batting 8th	192	162	634	564	65	139	24	2	20	67	7	0	51	155	.246	.317	.402	.719	227	10	10	3	6	0	5	.301	99	105
Batting 9th	253	162	615	551	55	109	11	6	14	45	11	3	40	159	.198	.266	.316	.582	174	15	12	10	2	0	7	.250	62	96

[weams]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Two was a stretch.  How about three?  243 sac bunts, including 232 by non-pitchers, and a winning record.

A shame they did not know how bad that was back then. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I didn't watch the video, but did Billy mention that every single reasonable study ever done on lineup construction indicates that the difference between the best possible lineup and a totally nonsensical lineup nobody would ever use is like 20 runs a season?  Literally, a team with Mike Trout batting 3rd and the pitcher 9th might score as much as 20 runs more a season than a lineup with the pitcher batting third and Mike Trout 9th.

Who bats where in the lineup is far less important than proper refrigeration of the egg salad in the pre-game spread.

Also, how they did not know how to hit a home run other than losing it in the high grass. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I didn't watch the video, but did Billy mention that every single reasonable study ever done on lineup construction indicates that the difference between the best possible lineup and a totally nonsensical lineup nobody would ever use is like 20 runs a season?  Literally, a team with Mike Trout batting 3rd and the pitcher 9th might score as much as 20 runs more a season than a lineup with the pitcher batting third and Mike Trout 9th.

Who bats where in the lineup is far less important than proper refrigeration of the egg salad in the pre-game spread.

Or whether steals are attempted arbitrarily or sacrifice bunting is employed. Beut seriously. Brother Bill is fun to watch on his breakdown He has a good argument for his take. 

[DrungoHazewood]

51 minutes ago, weams said:

A shame they did not know how bad that was back then. 

It probably wasn't counter-productive back then.  Or not remotely to the extent it would be in a five run/game environment. Teams in the deadball era scored 3-4 runs a game, and 30-40% of that was because of errors.  Why not bunt the guy over when the other team's third baseman is fielding .880 and the first baseman's mitt looks like your grandma made it on her kitchen table out of buckskin?

The '09 White Sox' most common #5 hitter was Billy Purtell, who had zero homers and a .601 OPS.  Patsy Dougherty hit cleanup much of the year and had one homer.  If you didn't bunt and steal incessantly there was a good chance you'd never score a run.  They had nine games they won 1-0.  If you sat back and waited for a homer you might not see one for three weeks.

[Just Regular]

43 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It probably wasn't counter-productive back then.  Or not remotely to the extent it would be in a five run/game environment. Teams in the deadball era scored 3-4 runs a game, and 30-40% of that was because of errors.  Why not bunt the guy over when the other team's third baseman is fielding .880 and the first baseman's mitt looks like your grandma made it on her kitchen table out of buckskin?

The '09 White Sox' most common #5 hitter was Billy Purtell, who had zero homers and a .601 OPS.  Patsy Dougherty hit cleanup much of the year and had one homer.  If you didn't bunt and steal incessantly there was a good chance you'd never score a run.  They had nine games they won 1-0.  If you sat back and waited for a homer you might not see one for three weeks.

With all the furor over the ball this year, and maybe deadening it some next year, it hit me it could be a fine exhibition to have today's hitters play an exhibition game with replicas from the deadball era.  I like the Field of Dreams game next year as a spot, only that's a real game.  It'd be like the Roger Clemens Cobb cameo in reverse.

You couldn't ask today's pitchers to throw it, so you'd need retired or Atlantic League pitchers.  But Aaron Judge's exit velocity, or Brett Gardner trying to match this year's 28 HR - I'd be fascinated.  Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi might run circles around them.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

With all the furor over the ball this year, and maybe deadening it some next year, it hit me it could be a fine exhibition to have today's hitters play an exhibition game with replicas from the deadball era.  I like the Field of Dreams game next year as a spot, only that's a real game.  It'd be like the Roger Clemens Cobb cameo in reverse.

You couldn't ask today's pitchers to throw it, so you'd need retired or Atlantic League pitchers.  But Aaron Judge's exit velocity, or Brett Gardner trying to match this year's 28 HR - I'd be fascinated.  Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi might run circles around them.

Sounds ideal for the next work stoppage.

[Brion McClanahan]

21 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Back then they didn't think through things so much.  That was the prototypical #2 hitter in the deadball era, back when your cleanup hitter might hit three homers a year and your team OPS'd .612.  In typical baseball fashion it took them 75 years to realize the deadball era was over and not everyone was Cesar Izturis.

Today putting a slap-hitting, bunting guy who slugs .344 #2 guarantees that one of your worst hitters gets the 2nd-most plate appearances.  That might not kill your team if you're going to have that guy in the lineup somewhere, but it's not exactly optimizing things either.

Except I never advocated the approach you outline in paragraph 2. I wouldn't recommend Richie Martin for the 2 spot, but on the current Os, Mancini would be better off at 3 than 2. He would have topped 100 RBIs had that been the case. Best lineup would have Alberto at 2 against LHP and Hayes against RHP with Villar leading off.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

With all the furor over the ball this year, and maybe deadening it some next year, it hit me it could be a fine exhibition to have today's hitters play an exhibition game with replicas from the deadball era.  I like the Field of Dreams game next year as a spot, only that's a real game.  It'd be like the Roger Clemens Cobb cameo in reverse.

You couldn't ask today's pitchers to throw it, so you'd need retired or Atlantic League pitchers.  But Aaron Judge's exit velocity, or Brett Gardner trying to match this year's 28 HR - I'd be fascinated.  Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi might run circles around them.

Yes, complete with legal spitballs, and fielders chewing black licorice and spitting into their gloves all day.  New ball about once every three innings.  And batters swinging 42-ounce hickory bats.  We'll let the batters keep their helmets.

Same conditions for the home run derby prior to the All Star Game, too.  Plus an inside-the-park homer bonus in each round (details TBD).

[DrungoHazewood]

On 10/1/2019 at 10:13 AM, OrioleDog said:

It matters marginally on the macro level.  Every spot in the batting order is ~18 PA's per year.

Here's this year's Orioles:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Batting 1st	174	162	760	706	106	192	37	4	18	74	27	8	46	158	.272	.320	.412	.732	291	11	4	3	1	0	8	.328	103	88
Batting 2nd	189	162	742	666	108	176	38	2	30	87	6	6	64	148	.264	.332	.462	.795	308	15	6	2	4	2	7	.297	118	94
Batting 3rd	190	162	721	659	92	170	36	2	32	92	3	0	50	167	.258	.313	.464	.778	306	17	6	0	6	1	12	.296	113	88
Batting 4th	184	162	702	636	93	157	30	2	38	112	2	2	52	172	.247	.309	.480	.789	305	5	8	0	6	1	1	.275	115	92
Batting 5th	180	162	688	619	84	168	27	3	20	87	10	6	55	151	.271	.336	.422	.758	261	12	8	0	5	1	6	.327	110	97
Batting 6th	192	162	672	611	64	146	29	2	22	75	10	1	50	149	.239	.303	.401	.704	245	19	7	1	3	1	6	.280	94	88
Batting 7th	185	162	655	584	62	122	20	2	19	59	8	4	54	176	.209	.285	.348	.633	203	7	10	3	4	2	5	.262	76	77
Batting 8th	192	162	634	564	65	139	24	2	20	67	7	0	51	155	.246	.317	.402	.719	227	10	10	3	6	0	5	.301	99	105
Batting 9th	253	162	615	551	55	109	11	6	14	45	11	3	40	159	.198	.266	.316	.582	174	15	12	10	2	0	7	.250	62	96

Per 18 PAs the difference between Mike Trout and Chris Davis is about three runs.  So the difference between a lineup with Davis batting leadoff and Trout 9th, and vice versa is about 27 runs per season, or 0.17 runs/game. 

[Redskins Rick]

I cant remember the manager, maybe even Earl, but the theory at the time, was your #9 batter was your second leadoff hitter.

 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Per 18 PAs the difference between Mike Trout and Chris Davis is about three runs.  So the difference between a lineup with Davis batting leadoff and Trout 9th, and vice versa is about 27 runs per season, or 0.17 runs/game. 

That’s about 3 wins, which isn’t huge, but isn’t nothing, either.    Of course, Davis and Trout is about as an extreme an example as you can find.