A look at every $100 mm+ contract: the good, the bad and the ugly

OriolesMagic83 · November 22, 2020

On 11/3/2019 at 4:48 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

That's nothing. Jonathan LuCroy's framing was worth $18M in 2011. And in 2014 Dioner Navarro's framing was worth minus-$22M per 162 games (also known as "an entire Chris Davis").

A new stat is born. How bad is this player, based on the CD (Chris Davis) scale. Player X had a miserable year and put up a 0.5 CD.

VaBird1 · November 22, 2020

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

A new stat is born. How bad is this player, based on the CD (Chris Davis) scale. Player X had a miserable year and put up a 0.5 CD.

That is exactly what I was doing in my head as I read it

Frobby · November 22, 2020

There are three categories of players I struggled with when listing the value of their contracts and evaluating the surplus/deficit:

1. The Boneheads: Into this category gobARod, Cano and Cespedes. Each had the payments on their contracts reduced due to their own actions. ARod had one unpaid season and Cano will now have a season and a half unpaid, both due to PED use. Cespedes, while out after ankle surgery, injured himself while getting off a horse on his ranch in violation of his contract, and settled the dispute by reducing his 2019 salary from $29 mm to $22.1 mm and his 2020 salary from $29.5 mm to $6 mm. And then he walked away from almost all of his 2020 salary by opting out after about a week. So, do you judge their performance against their original contract, or against what they actually got paid? I listed them by their original contract (less the 2020 reduction due to covid), but then included notes about the amount they weren’t paid due to their actions.

2. The Opt-Outs. ARod, Kershaw, Greinke, Strasburg and Sabathia all had opt-out clauses they used to leverage contract extensions. So, do you judge the original contracts by (1) comparing performance over the life of the original contract vs. what would have been paid under the original contract, (2) comparing performance during the years before the opt out with the amount paid before the opt out, or (3) looking at the original contract plus the extension as one contract? I chose to use option (1) and also gave information about option (2). Another complication was how much of a discount to take off 2020 salary if that salary was renegotiated between the original deal and the extension. I reduced it by the amount saved on actual 2020 salary.

3. Trout. As usual, a category unto himself. His first contract was so ridiculously good that the team gave him an extension that increased his pay the last two years of it even though they didn’t have to. In his case it was easy just to judge that contract (2015-20) against his performance over those years, which showed him to be the most underpaid $100 mm+ player ever, by a wide margin. We’ll see how his new contract goes — hopefully not the same way as Pujols II, Cabrera II and ARod II, all of which were huge losers.

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Frobby · November 7, 2021

Here’s my 2021 update to this thread (see the OP for an explanation of methodology and color scheme) . In MLB history, there have now been 92 contracts that were $100 mm+ when they were signed, through the 2021 season (this excludes the Lindor contract, which doesn’t go into effect until 2022). The actual value of a few of those fell below $100 mm due to the partial 2020 season, but I left them on the list and show both the original and revised value.

Of the 92, I now count them this way: 19 players who earned or exceeded their contracts, 37 definite disasters, 1 likely to suck, 5 that were mild disappointments, and 30 where it's too early to tell (I’ve been pretty conservative in making a call on some of the contracts that are trending good or bad). Of the 92 contracts, 34 are ongoing right now. Nine contracts closed out in 2021, including some very big winners and losers, which I’ll highlight in a later post. But here’s the full list of 92 and where I put them:

Player earned or exceeded his salary (19 contracts, in order of size of contract):

ARod I (2001-10) $252 mm, 71.4 rWAR, 70.0 fWAR, $339 mm value (opted out after $168.4 mm paid, $253 mm earned)($84.6 mm surplus before opt out; $87 mm surplus incl. opt out)

Votto (2014-23) $214.2 mm (was $225 mm) (8 years, 30.1 rWAR, 28.3 fWAR, $224.2 mm value ($10.0 mm surplus with 2 years remaining)

Kershaw (2014-20, incl. one arb. year) $200.3 mm (was $215 mm) 33.9 rWAR, 35.2 fWAR, $279 mm gross value, $267 mm net value with arb. discount ($66.7 mm surplus; contract was extended one more season at additional cost of $28 mm, was worth $27.1 mm that season)

Scherzer (2015-21) $198 mm (was $210 mm), 42.3 rWAR, 39.7 fWAR, $318.5 mm value ($120.5 mm surplus)

Jeter (2001-10)($189 mm, 41.2 rWAR, 46.8 fWAR, $222 mm value ($33 mm surplus)

Posey (2013-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years), $142.5 mm (opted out of 2020; was $164 mm), 32.2 rWAR, 42.7 fWAR, $327.8 mm gross value, $263.0 mm value net of arb discount ($120.5 mm surplus)

Ramirez (2001-08) $160 mm, 36.6 rWAR, 32.5 fWAR, $150 mm value ($10 mm deficit)

Hamels (2013-18, w/ 2019 option) $156 mm, 29.7 rWAR, 23.4 fWAR, $182.7 mm value ($26.7 mm surplus)

Cabrera I (2008-13, incl. 2 arb years) $152 mm, 46.5 rWAR, 47.1 fWAR, $322.1 mm gross value, $309.2 net of arb discount ($157.2 mm surplus)

Greinke I (2013-18) $147 mm, 29.9 rWAR, 23.2 fWAR, $181.9 mm value (opted out after $70 mm, 17.5 rWAR, 13.2 fWAR, $101.7 mm), $31.7 mm surplus as of opt out, $34.9 mm incl. opt out years

Trout I (2015-20, incl. 3 arb. years) $123.1 mm (was $144 mm), 46.7 rWAR, 46.8 fWAR, $374.3 mm gross value, $287.5 net of arb discount ($154.4 mm surplus; contract extended and modified before 2019 season)

Verlander (2015-19) $140 mm (29.8 rWAR, 25.6 fWAR, $205.2 mm value (had a vesting option for 2020 that has been restructured to a 2-year extention) ($60.5 mm surplus)

Tanaka (2014-20) $138.6 mm, 17.6 rWAR, 18.9 fWAR, $150.3 mm value ($11.7 mm surplus)

Freeman (2014-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years), $121.1 mm (was $135 mm), 34.1 rWAR, 35.4 fWAR, $281.1 mm gross value, $240.5 mm value net of arb discounts ($119.4 mm surplus)

Holliday (2010-16) $120 mm, 20.8 rWAR, 24.1 fWAR, $167.3 mm value ($47.3 mm surplus)

Beltran (2005-11) $119 mm, 32.2 rWAR, 30.3 fWAR, $167.2 mm vale ($48.2 mm surplus)

Cliff Lee (2011-15) $109 mm, 20.5 rWAR, 19.7 fWAR, $142.5 mm value ($33.5 mm surplus)

Pujols I (2004-11, including 3 arb. years) $100 mm, 60.5 rWAR, 59.1 fWAR, $328.5 mm gross value, $276.5 mm net of arb discount ($176.5 mm surplus)

K. Seager (2015-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years) $88 mm (was $100 mm) (23.0 rWAR, 20.9 fWAR, $167.9 gross value, $127.0 mm net of arb discount, $39.0 mm surplus value

Definite Disasters (37 contracts, in order of size of contract):

ARod II (2008-17), $275 mm, 23.4 rWAR , 22.6 fWAR(note: Yankees didn’t have to pay his 2014 salary, so it’s really $250 mm), $140.3 mm value ($109.7 mm deficit)

Pujols II (2012-21): $235.7 mm (was $254 mm), 12.9 rWAR, 6.0 fWAR , $39.3 mm value ($196.4 mm deficit)

Cabrera II (2016-23) $229.1 mm (was $248 mm), 4.0 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR, $37.9 mm ($191.2 mm deficit, 2 years remaining)

Fielder (2012-20), $214 mm, 6.9 rWAR, 7.5 fWAR , $50.7 mm ($163.3 mm deficit)

Greinke II (2016-21) $186.5 mm (was $206.5 mm), 19.1 rWAR, 18.9 fWAR, $150.4 mm value, $36.1 mm deficit)

Price (2016-22) $185 mm (opted out of 2020; was $217 mm), 5 years, 11.1 rWAR, 11.3 fWAR, $90.7 mm value ($94.3 mm deficit with 1 year remaining)

Mauer (2011-18) $184 mm, 21.9 rWAR, 18.3 fWAR $134.7 mm ($49.3 mm deficit).

Teixeira (2009-16) $180 mm, 20.6 rWAR, 18.2 fWAR $123.5 ($56.5 mm deficit)

F. Hernandez (2013-19) $175 mm, 16.4 rWAR, 15.9 fWAR, $121.4 mm ($53.6 mm deficit)

Heyward (2016-23) $170.8 mm (was $184 mm), 6 years, 9.6 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR, $64.5 mm ($106.3 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

Davis (2016-22) $146.5 mm (was $161 mm), -2.7 rWAR, -2.4 fWAR, -$19.5 mm value ($166 mm deficit)

Kemp (2012-19) $160 mm, 5.1 rWAR , 5.5 fWAR, $42.8 mm ($117.2 mm deficit)

A. Gonzalez (2012-18) $154 mm, 15.7 rWAR, 12.1 fWAR, $88.4 mm ($65.6 mm deficit)

Ellsbury (2014-20) $153 mm, 9.8 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR, $63 mm ($90 mm deficit)

Crawford (2011-17) $142 mm, 3.7 rWAR, 5.3 fWAR, $39.5 mm ($103.5 mm deficit)

Wright (2013-20) $138 mm, 8.9 rWAR 8.9 fWAR, $67.6 mm ($70.4 mm deficit)

Santana (2008-14) $138 mm, 15.3 rWAR, 13.9 fWAR, $86.6 mm ($51.4 mm deficit)

Soriano (2007-14) $136 mm, 8.9 rWAR 19.0 fWAR , $117.5 mm ($18.5 mm deficit)

Tulowitizki (2014-20) $134 mm, 11.8 rWAR, 10.6 fWAR, $83.1 mm ($50.9 mm deficit)

Upton I (2016-21) $119.6 mm (was $132.8 mm), 8.9 rWAR, 9.9 fWAR, $79.2 mm value ($40.4 mm deficit) (deal has been restructured)

Choo (2014-20) $116.8 mm (was $130 mm), 8.4 rWAR 8.8 fWAR, $70.2 mm ($46.6 mm deficit)

Zito (2007-13) $126 mm, 3.0 rWAR , 6.5 fWAR, $37.5 mm ($88.5 mm deficit)

Wells (2007-13) $126 mm, 6.9 rWAR, 6.7 fWAR $39.7 mm ($86.3 mm deficit)

Werth (2011-17) $126 mm, 8.9 rWAR, 14.2 fWAR , $104.7 mm ($21.3 mm deficit)

Howard (2012-16) $125 mm, -4.5 rWAR, -1.7 fWAR, -$12.4 mm ($137.4 mm deficit)

Hamilton (2013-17) $125 mm, 3.4 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR, $21.1 mm ($103.9 mm deficit)

Hampton (2001-08) $121 mm, 4.3 rWAR, 7.9 fWAR, $33.8 mm* ($86.2 mm deficit)

Cueto (2016-21) $116.8 mm (was $130 mm) (5 years, 8.8 rWAR, 8.4 fWAR, $66.4 mm value ($50.4 mm deficit)

Griffey (2000-2007) $116.5 mm, 13.3 rWAR, 10.4 fWAR, $43.4 mm* ($73.1 mm deficit)

Cain (2013-17) $112.5 mm, -1.1 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR, $5.0 mm ($107.5 mm deficit)

Cespedes (2017-20) $74 mm (was $110 mm), 2.7 rWAR, 2.3 fWAR, $18.7 mm ($55.3 mm deficit)(note: contract reduced for 2019-2020 due to an off-field injury and he opted out of 2020 after a few games).

Zimmermann (2016-20, 1 year remaining) $94.2 mm (was $110 mm), 1.1 rWAR, 5.0 fWAR, $40.6 mm ($53.6 mm deficit)

Reyes (2012-17) $106 mm 8.8 rWAR, 14.3 fWAR, $104.7 mm ($1.3 mm deficit)

Bailey (2014-19) $105 mm, 0.6 rWAR, 5.7 fWAR, $44.1 mm ($60.9 mm deficit)

Carlos Lee (2007-12) $100 mm 8.7 rWAR, 8.0 fWAR, $52.6 mm ($47.4 mm deficit)

Zimmerman (2014-19) $100 mm, 3.8 rWAR, 5.2 fWAR, $41.4 mm ($58.6 mm deficit)

Braun (2016-20) $94.3 mm (was $105 mm), 7.5 rWAR, 8.2 fWAR, $66.9 mm ($27.4 mm deficit)

Likely to suck, at this point (1 contracts):

Hosmer (2018-25) $131.4 mm (was $144 mm) (4 years, 2.7 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR, $4.5 value $126.9 mm deficit with 4 years remaining)

Slightly disappointing (5 contracts, in order of size of contract):

Sabathia (2009-15) $161 mm, 21.3 rWAR, 24.3 fWAR, $166.7 mm on original deal ; $191 mm, 24.6 rWAR, 26.9 fWAR, $187.8 mm after extended one year to avoid opt out ($5.7 suplus on original deal; $3.2 mm deficit on extended deal)

Lester (2015-20) $142.4 mm (was $155 mm) (13.2 rWAR, 17.1 fWAR, $135.7 mm value ($6.7 mm deficit)

Helton (2003-11) $142 mm, 32.9 rWAR, 28.8 fWAR, $124.0 mm ($18 mm deficit)

Giambi (2002-08) $120 mm, 22.1 rWAR, 21.9 fWAR, $99.9 mm ($20.1 mm deficit)

K. Brown (1999-2005) $105 mm, 22.9 WAR, 27.4 fWAR), $113.5 mm ($8.5 mm surplus)

Too soon to tell (30 contracts, in order of fewest years of contract remaining, size of contract):

Andrus (2015-22) $108.5 mm (was $118 mm) (7 years, 13.4 rWAR, 11.4 fWAR, $92.7 mm value ($15.8 mm deficit with 1 year remaining)

JD Martinez (2018-22) $95 mm (was $110 mm) (4 years, 12.5 rWAR, 11.0 fWAR, $87.7 mm value ($7 mm deficit with 1 year remaining)

Longoria (2017-22) $90.5 mm (was $100 mm) (5 years, 9.4 rWAR, 7.4 fWAR, $58.9 mm value, $31.6 mm deficit with 1 year remaining)

Cano (2014-23) $221.1 mm (was $240 mm) (8 years, 24.5 rWAR, 22.8 fWAR, $169.8 mm value, $51.3 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)(note: Cano will receive only $176.1 mm due to two PED suspensions without pay, so his deficit from that is only $6.3 mm and he will still have two years left after suspension concludes)

Strasburg I (2017-23) $153 mm (was $175 mm) (5 years, 15.0 rWAR, 13.9 fWAR, $111.5 mm value ($41.5 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)(opted out after 2019; provided 15.3 rWAR, 14.0 fWAR, $112.2 mm value, $37.2 mm surplus in 2017-19 before opt out)

DeGrom (2019-23) $123 mm (was $137.5 mm) (3 years, 14.9 rWAR, 9.6 fWAR, $115.4 mm value, $7.6 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

Darvish (2018-23) $112.1 mm (was $126 mm) (4 years, 7.6 rWAR, 8.5 fWAR, $67.3 mm value, $44.8 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

Bauer (2021-23) $102 mm, 1 year, 2.8 rWAR, 1.8 fWAR, $14 mm value, $88 mm deficit with 2 years remaining

Blackmon (2018-23) $94.8 mm (was $108 mm) (2 years, 5.1 rWAR, 7.3 fWAR, $57.4 mm value, $37.4 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

Altuve (2018-24) $147.1 mm (was $163.5 mm)(4 years, 13.1 rWAR, 13.7 fWAR, $109.4 mm value, $37.7 mm deficit with 3 years remaining

Sale (2020-24) $126.1 mm (was $145 mm) (2 years, 1.0 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR, $6.3 mm value, $119.8 mm deficit with 3 years remaining

Corbin (2019-24) $128 mm (was $140 mm) (3 years, 5.8 rWAR, 6.1 fWAR, $48.3 mm value, $79.7 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)

Goldschmidt 2020-24 $116.1 mm (was $130 mm), 2 years, 8.3 rWAR, 7.1 fWAR, $56.8 mm value, $59.3 mm deficit with 3 years remaining.

Wheeler (2020-24) $104.5 mm (was $118 mm), 2 years, 10.4 rWAR, 9.3 fWAR, $73.8 mm value, $30.7 mm deficit with 3 years remaining

Bregman (2020-24) $93.1 mm (was $100 mm), 2 years, 3.2 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR, $23.3 mm value, $69.8 mm deficit with 3 years remaining

Realmuto (2021-25) $115.5 mm, 1 year, 3.4 rWAR, 4.4 fWAR, $35.3 mm value ($80.2 mm deficit with 4 years remaining).

Bogaerts (2020-25) $107.4 mm (was $120 mm), 2 years, 6.5 rWAR, 7.2 fWAR, $56.7 mm value, $50.7 mm deficit with 4 years remaining

Arenado (2019-26, incl. 1 arb year) $238 mm (was $260 mm) (3 years, 12.9 rWAR, 11.1 fWAR, $94.5 mm value with 5 years remaining)

Rendon (2020-26) $229 mm (was $245 mm), 2 years, 2.2 rWAR, 3.3 fWAR, $26.2 mm value with 5 years remaining

Strasburg II (2020-26) $223 mm (was $245 mm), 2 years, -0.3 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR, $0.2 mm value with 5 years remaining

Springer (2021-26) $125 mm, 2.4 rWAR, 2.4 fWAR, $19.3 mm value with 5 years remaining

Acuna (2019-26, incl. 3 min salary years and 3 arb years) $99.4 mm (was $100 mm) (3 years, 11.0 rWAR, 12.1 fWAR, $97.1 mm gross value with 5 years remaining)

Stanton (2015-27, including 2 pre-FA years), $308.6 mm (was $325 mm) (7 years, 22.5 rWAR, 20.7 fWAR, $164.8 mm value with 6 years remaining)

Cole (2020-28) $301.3 mm (was $324 mm), 2 years, 7.8 rWAR, 6.7 fWAR, $53.6 mm with 7 years remaining

Machado (2019-28) $281.1 mm (was $300 mm) (3 years, 10.8 rWAR, 10.2 fWAR, $81.5 mm value with 7 years remaining)

Yelich (2020-28) $207.1 mm (was $215 mm), 2 year, 0.2 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR, $17.9 mm value with 7 years remaining

Trout II (2019-30) $403.8 mm (was $426.5 mm) (3 years, 11.5 rWAR, 13.2 fWAR, $105.3 mm value with 9 years remaining)

Harper (2019-31), $313.6 mm (was $330 mm) (2 years, 6.0 rWAR, 12.7 fWAR, $102.0 mm value with 10 years remaining)

Betts (2021-32) $365 mm, 1 year, 4.2 rWAR, 3.9 fWAR, $31.0 mm value with 11 years remaining

Tatis (2021-34 including one pre-arb and 3 arb years) $340 mm, 1 year, 6.5 rWAR, 6.1 fWAR, $49.1 mm gross value (but only $600 k cost at pre-arb prices) with 13 years remaining

Frobby · November 7, 2021

Here are the nine contracts that closed out in 2021, in order of surplus or deficit:

Scherzer $120.5 mm surplus

Posey $120.5 mm surplus

Freeman $119.4 mm surplus

K. Seager $39.0 mm surplus

Greinke II $36.1 mm deficit

Upton I $40.4 mm deficit

Cueto $50.4 mm deficit

Davis $166.0 mm deficit

Pujols II $196.4 mm deficit

Scherzer, Posey and Freeman are three of the best $100mm+ contracts of all time. Not only did they each generate $119-120 mm in excess value, but each player helped his team to at least one World Series win while under the contract. Pujols II and Davis go down in infamy as two of the worst contracts ever and you can debate which was worse. Pujols had the largest deficit ever, while Davis has the largest contract ever for a player who had negative WAR during the contract.

Frobby · November 7, 2021

Here are some contracts I put in the “too early to tell” category that I was tempted to put in the (now empty) “trending good” category or the “likely to suck” category:

Trending good:

JD Martinez $7 mm deficit with a year remaining

DeGrom $7 mm deficit with 2 years remaining but coming off a partial UCL tear that he has rehabbed without surgery.

Wheeler $30.7 mm deficit with three years remaining

Altuve $37.7 mm deficit with three years remaining

Likely to suck:

Longoria $31.6 mm deficit with a year remaining

Strasburg II $222.8 mm deficit with 5 years remaining and coming off neurogenic thoracic outlet surgery

There’s a few others that aren’t looking so good (like Corbin and Rendon) but it’s still a bit early to say.

Frobby · October 11, 2022

Here’s my 2022 update to this thread. In MLB history, there have now been 108 contracts that were $100 mm+ when they were signed, through the 2022 season (this excludes the Riley, Alvarez, Castillo, Musgrove and J. Rodriguez contracts, which don’t go into effect until 2023). The actual value of a few of those fell below $100 mm due to the partial 2020 season, but I left them on the list and show both the original and revised value.

Of the 108 I now count them this way: 23 players who earned or exceeded their contracts, 38 definite disasters, 4 looking good so far, 5 likely to suck, 7 that were mild disappointments, and 31 where it's too early to tell. Of the 108 contracts, 46 are ongoing right now, 15 of which began effective in 2022. Here’s the full list of 108 and where I put them:

Player earned or exceeded his salary (23 contracts, in order of size of contract):

ARod I (2001-10) $252 mm, 71.4 rWAR, 70.0 fWAR, $339 mm value (opted out after $168.4 mm paid, $253 mm earned)($84.6 mm surplus before opt out; $87 mm surplus incl. opt out)

Kershaw (2014-20, incl. one arb. year) $200.3 mm (was $215 mm) 33.9 rWAR, 35.2 fWAR, $279 mm gross value, $267 mm net value with arb. discount ($66.7 mm surplus; contract was extended one more season at additional cost of $28 mm, was worth $27.1 mm that season)

Scherzer I (2015-21) $198 mm (was $210 mm), 42.3 rWAR, 39.7 fWAR, $318.5 mm value ($120.5 mm surplus)

Jeter (2001-10)($189 mm, 41.2 rWAR, 46.8 fWAR, $222 mm value ($33 mm surplus)

Posey (2013-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years), $142.5 mm (opted out of 2020; was $164 mm), 32.2 rWAR, 42.7 fWAR, $327.8 mm gross value, $263.0 mm value net of arb discount ($120.5 mm surplus)

Ramirez (2001-08) $160 mm, 36.6 rWAR, 32.5 fWAR, $150 mm value ($10 mm deficit)

Hamels (2013-18, w/ 2019 option) $156 mm, 29.7 rWAR, 23.4 fWAR, $182.7 mm value ($26.7 mm surplus)

Cabrera I (2008-13, incl. 2 arb years) $152 mm, 46.5 rWAR, 47.1 fWAR, $322.1 mm gross value, $309.2 net of arb discount ($157.2 mm surplus)

Altuve (2018-24) $147.1 mm (was $163.5 mm)(4 years, 18.3 rWAR, 22.0 fWAR, $176.1 mm value ($29.0 mm suplus with 2 years remaining)

Greinke I (2013-18) $147 mm, 29.9 rWAR, 23.2 fWAR, $181.9 mm value (opted out after $70 mm, 17.5 rWAR, 13.2 fWAR, $101.7 mm), $31.7 mm surplus as of opt out, $34.9 mm incl. opt out years

Trout I (2015-20, incl. 3 arb. years) $123.1 mm (was $144 mm), 46.7 rWAR, 46.8 fWAR, $374.3 mm gross value, $287.5 net of arb discount ($154.4 mm surplus; contract extended and modified before 2019 season)

Verlander (2015-19) $140 mm (29.8 rWAR, 25.6 fWAR, $205.2 mm value (had a vesting option for 2020 that has been restructured to a 2-year extention) ($60.5 mm surplus)

Tanaka (2014-20) $138.6 mm, 17.6 rWAR, 18.9 fWAR, $150.3 mm value ($11.7 mm surplus)

Freeman I (2014-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years), $121.1 mm (was $135 mm), 34.1 rWAR, 35.4 fWAR, $281.1 mm gross value, $240.5 mm value net of arb discounts ($119.4 mm surplus)

Holliday (2010-16) $120 mm, 20.8 rWAR, 24.1 fWAR, $167.3 mm value ($47.3 mm surplus)

Beltran (2005-11) $119 mm, 32.2 rWAR, 30.3 fWAR, $167.2 mm vale ($48.2 mm surplus)

Goldschmidt 2020-24 $116.1 mm (was $130 mm), 3 years, 16.0 rWAR, 14.4 fWAR, $115.6 mm value, ($0.5mm deficit with 2 years remaining).

Cliff Lee (2011-15) $109 mm, 20.5 rWAR, 19.7 fWAR, $142.5 mm value ($33.5 mm surplus)

Andrus (2015-22) $108.5 mm (was $118 mm) 16.5 rWAR, 17.3 fWAR, $148.8 mm value ($40.3 mm surplus)

Wheeler (2020-24) $104.5 mm (was $118 mm), 3 years, 15.4 rWAR, 13.2 fWAR, $106.1 mm value ($1.6 mm suplus with 2 years remaining)

JD Martinez (2018-22) $95 mm (was $110 mm), 13.6 rWAR, 11.9 fWAR, $95.5 mm value ($0.5 mm surplus)

Pujols I (2004-11, including 3 arb. years) $100 mm, 60.5 rWAR, 59.1 fWAR, $328.5 mm gross value, $276.5 mm net of arb discount ($176.5 mm surplus)

K. Seager (2015-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years) $88 mm (was $100 mm) (23.0 rWAR, 20.9 fWAR, $167.9 gross value, $127.0 mm net of arb discount ($39.0 mm surplus)

Definite Disasters (38 contracts, in order of size of contract):