2019 #4 Prospect: Ryan Mountcastle - LF/1B

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Maybe we can trade Mancini for Tobias Myers.

 

8 minutes ago, weams said:

I'd be for that 

Probably not enough for Mancini.   But I’d like Tony and Luke’s take.   

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, weams said:

Average defense and no baserunning does not a failed big bat make. 

I didn't say failed.

I actually wrote he has a higher floor than Hays and Diaz.

Look at Mancini.  He played damn near every day this year and put up a 900 ops.  He was terrific.  He was also worth 3.3 wins.  Even if you want to grant him some defensive value for whatever reason, he's worth like 4 war a year.  

And I think that is a real nice projection for Mountcastle.  

To see him becoming an "all-star" caliber player you have to really believe in the bat in a way I don't.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I didn't say failed.

I actually wrote he has a higher floor than Hays and Diaz.

Look at Mancini.  He played damn near every day this year and put up a 900 ops.  He was terrific.  He was also worth 3.3 wins.  Even if you want to grant him some defensive value for whatever reason, he's worth like 4 war a year.  

And I think that is a real nice projection for Mountcastle.  

To see him becoming an "all-star" caliber player you have to really believe in the bat in a way I don't.

I believe in that bat. Especially if he'll walk upon command. 

[Pickles]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

Oh, he might hit 350!

If he consistently hits .300 in the big leagues then he should definitely be ranked higher than Hays and Diaz.

[Pickles]

Just now, weams said:

I believe in that bat. Especially if he'll walk upon command. 

I believe in the bat too.  I'd be very surprised if he pulled a Sisco.

But there's a reason it's extremely rare to hit .300 every year in the major leagues.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I didn't say failed.

I actually wrote he has a higher floor than Hays and Diaz.

Look at Mancini.  He played damn near every day this year and put up a 900 ops.  He was terrific.  He was also worth 3.3 wins.  Even if you want to grant him some defensive value for whatever reason, he's worth like 4 war a year.  

And I think that is a real nice projection for Mountcastle.  

To see him becoming an "all-star" caliber player you have to really believe in the bat in a way I don't.

I think 4 WAR/yr is a reasonable ceiling for Mountcastle.   I’m not sure Hays or Diaz has a higher ceiling than that.   And nothing wrong with a 4 WAR ceiling.   

[Pickles]

Just now, Frobby said:

I think 4 WAR/yr is a reasonable ceiling for Mountcastle.   I’m not sure Hays or Diaz has a higher ceiling than that.   And nothing wrong with a 4 WAR ceiling.   

Nothing wrong with it at all.

But I personally think both Hays and Diaz have higher ceilings than that.

If either of them put up a 900 ops (which is not outside the realm of possibility) they'll very likely exceed 4 WAR.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Nothing wrong with it at all.

But I personally think both Hays and Diaz have higher ceilings than that.

If either of them put up a 900 ops (which is not outside the realm of possibility) they'll very likely exceed 4 WAR.

Put it this way: if Mountcastle becomes a 4 WAR player and Hays and Diaz exceed that, I’ll be a very happy man.   
 

I know, we’re talking about ceiling here.    Still.

I already said I’d put Hays above Mountcastle on my personal list.   But it’s very close between the two IMO.

[Pickles]

Just now, Frobby said:

Put it this way: if Mountcastle becomes a 4 WAR player and Hays and Diaz exceed that, I’ll be a very happy man.   
 

I know, we’re talking about ceiling here.    Still.

I already said I’d put Hays above Mountcastle on my personal list.   But it’s very close between the two IMO.

Oh, if they all do that we'll be pretty competitive pretty soon.

That ain't happening.

I definitely believe Mountcastle has the highest floor.  And that really isn't close.  But I have to be honest, when I look at it I see .280/320/500 first baseman.  Nothing wrong with that.
 

But I'd rather have either of the other two guys if they approximate their ceilings.

And yes, it is very close among these three.  As always, the discussion breaks down into tiers, and I think all of these three guys fall on the same tier for me.

[atomic]

On 11/7/2019 at 7:44 AM, Pickles said:

I didn't say failed.

I actually wrote he has a higher floor than Hays and Diaz.

Look at Mancini.  He played damn near every day this year and put up a 900 ops.  He was terrific.  He was also worth 3.3 wins.  Even if you want to grant him some defensive value for whatever reason, he's worth like 4 war a year.  

And I think that is a real nice projection for Mountcastle.  

To see him becoming an "all-star" caliber player you have to really believe in the bat in a way I don't.

If Mountcastle played at DH every game his WAR would have been higher.  In the Minors at every level Mountcastle was younger than Mancini by a couple of years and out hit him.  I would definitely rank Mountcastle above Hall as a prospect.

[atomic]

On 11/7/2019 at 8:19 AM, Pickles said:

Oh, if they all do that we'll be pretty competitive pretty soon.

That ain't happening.

I definitely believe Mountcastle has the highest floor.  And that really isn't close.  But I have to be honest, when I look at it I see .280/320/500 first baseman.  Nothing wrong with that.
 

But I'd rather have either of the other two guys if they approximate their ceilings.

And yes, it is very close among these three.  As always, the discussion breaks down into tiers, and I think all of these three guys fall on the same tier for me.

Mountcastle is 2 years younger than Hays and way out hit him at Norfolk.   Guys who hit like Mountcastle at his age/levels tend to do well in the majors.  I don't see him having any issues hitting major league pitching 

[Tony-OH]

On 11/6/2019 at 12:19 PM, LookinUp said:

I'm kind of surprised you'd rank Mountcastle with the top 3. IMO, that's the cutoff. Maybe (like our previous discussion) with Mountcastle sort of in a category of his own.

I do agree that if the plate discipline pans out enough (doesn't have to be perfect) and his athleticism makes him an average or slightly better LFer, the bat puts him up there. I guess that's really the bottom line of what you're saying...the bat is very legit. This guy will hit. The end. 

Gotta love that.

And by the way, I think this write-up was particularly thoughtful about the player's strengths and weaknesses/unknowns. 

Thanks. 

I can understand that line of thinking and perhaps Mountcastle does belong in his own category, but here's why I think he belongs at this point. One, Rutchsman hasn't played above Low-A and although his tools should make him an impact player, we haven't seen him put up a full season of dominance. Mountcastle is only a year older than Rutschman so when Rutschman plays next year he will be he same age as Mountcastle was this year and will most likely be playing at a much lower level. As for the pitchers, if they end up at their mid-rotation most likely, that would be very close to the occasional All-Star ceiling for Mountcastle. 

So I guess I'm saying is that Mountcastle is going to hit and he's going to be impactful to the point that I think he ends up on some All-Star teams. The other three are all about promise and their risk factors are higher. 

[Tony-OH]

On 11/6/2019 at 3:28 PM, John Welch said:

I disagree.

You don't move Mancini, now, spring training, or at the deadline unless you can get something that you deem "makes us better". I believe that will be possible this offseason. You seem to have far less faith in that idea. But I don't think Davis is a factor in determining if you trade Mancini. The factor is what kind of package you can get for Mancini.

Davis is an entirely different question. While I have zero inside information, my guess is ownership has determined that he gets one more opportunity. My guess is that means if he shows in the spring that he's made improvements, then he gets more time. If he doesn't, Davis is removed sometime shortly after, likely coinciding with the Mountcastle clock watch. But there is no other correlation between Mancini and Davis. 

And no, I don't believe Davis will make any noticeable improvements. But I understand ownership hoping changes can be made, notwithstanding the recent Davis comments where he rejected help suggested by Elias. 

I must've missed that. Where was that reported? Thanks.

[Tony-OH]

On 11/7/2019 at 7:50 AM, Pickles said:

I believe in the bat too.  I'd be very surprised if he pulled a Sisco.

But there's a reason it's extremely rare to hit .300 every year in the major leagues.

I would be utterly shocked if Mountcastle "pulled a Sisco". Then again, I had concerns about Sisco's bat when he K rate started going up and his struggles in AAA.

[7Mo]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I must've missed that. Where was that reported? Thanks.

The Orioles and Davis have discussed sending him to a hitting school, but that probably won’t happen.

“We’ve talked about it,” he said. “They basically left it in my hands. They said, ‘If this something you want to do, we’ll do everything we can to help.’ I’m 33. I’ll be 34 in March … I’m on the backside of my career. I don’t think there’s going to be a massive swing overhaul where I’m changing mechanically. That’s not going to happen.

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2019/11/05/davis-3-million-donation-want-can-help-people/

I've seen a quote that is a little more clear than the above but can't find it right now.