Fangraphs: Orioles’ Top 40

[Frobby]

I’m continuing to track Fangraphs’ grades given to each team’s prospects.     They are now up to 16 teams.    Using a system employed by Fangraphs last year to place a dollar value on each level of prospect (e.g., a 50 FV hitter has an excess value of $28 mm), the current excess value of the Orioles’ system is $206 mm, which places them 8th of 16 teams and just above the average of $202.75 mm.   Right now, of the 16 teams ranked, the Pirates are no. 1 at $282.5 mm, and the Red Sox are dead last at $105 mm.    The Yankees are at $250.5 mm with a whopping 54 prospects ranked at 35+ or higher.   The Rays and Blue Jays have not been graded yet.   Based on midseason grades from last year, the Rays figure to be at or near the top of the full 30-team list, while the Jays figure to be near the bottom.

When you look at the Yankees’ list, it’s really striking how it’s dominated by foreign players.    18 of their top 20, including their top 5, are foreign signees.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Frobby
Mistakenly said the Yankees were no. 1 at this point; it was actually the Pirates.

[Frobby]

Fangraphs has now graded 20 teams, including the entire AL East.    By their valuation system from last year, we rank 10th out of 20 so far.     As I expected, Tampa is off-the-charts good.    They have 55 prospects ranked 35+ or higher, most of any team graded so far (we have 40, which is still above average).    The dollar value of their system by last year's method is $329 mm if you exclude Wander Franco.       And the reason I excluded him is Fangraphs graded him an 80, the first time they have done that, and so I don't know what an 80 is supposed to be worth.    Last year they valued a 70 grade batter (Vlad Jr.) at $112 mm, so Franco will be valued higher than that.

Toronto graded better than I expected, slightly behind us at $200.5 mm.   We are at $206 mm; the mean valuation for all 20 teams graded so far is $209 mm, excluding 1/20th of whatever Franco is worth.

So far the top teams by this methodology are:

TBR $329mm+ (55 prospects 35+ or better)

PIT $282.5 mm (42)

MIA $281.5 mm (41)

ARI $277.5 mm (47)

DET $260.5 mm (39)

NYY $250.5 mm (54)

ATL $250 mm (27)

SEA $237 mm (38)

MIN $228 mm (42)

BAL $206 mm (40)

[Frobby]

Fangraphs has now put up its own chart similar to the one I was keeping:   https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summary?type=0&filter=&pos=&team=sfg&sort=-1,1

Their numbers vary slightly from mine and they have the Giants ahead of us, moving the Orioles down to 11th of the 20 teams they’ve graded.    They also show partial valuations of the 9 teams they haven’t graded, just based on the players those teams placed in their overall top 100 who are on those teams (each of whom was graded in that process).   Based on that, the Padres, Dodgers and White Sox are already ahead of us before the rest of their non-top 100 players have been graded.   You can’t tell if any other teams are likely to pass us.

By their model, our four players ranked 50 or higher are worth $138 mm, whereas the other 36 players that they graded at 35+ or higher are worth $69 mm.    Of the other teams that haven’t been fully graded, their grade 50 or higher players are worth less than ours, but some are close.    So, whether they pass us depends on how much depth Fangraphs thinks they have.

Oh yeah — they put a value on grade 80 Wander Franco — $180 mm.    He’s worth more than 7 teams’ entire farm systems all by himself, by this model.     No pressure though.     

Here’s an accompanying article:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-progress-farm-system-rankings-are-now-on-the-board/

  

 

[Can_of_corn]

That isn't exactly promising considering they picked 1-1 last year and recently had a talent sell-off.

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That isn't exactly promising considering they picked 1-1 last year and recently had a talent sell-off.

It’s an upgrade over last year but isn’t going to wow anyone.     For me it comes down to this: it’s really hard to have an elite farm system unless you are getting your share of the international talent.    And that takes time to (1) ramp up to acquire, and (2) bubble up to the stateside teams where they can be evaluated for purposes of a list like this.    I figure it’ll be at least 5 years before our MiL teams from the top down include our fair share of players we signed internationally.     

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s an upgrade over last year but isn’t going to wow anyone.     For me it comes down to this: it’s really hard to have an elite farm system unless you are getting your share of the international talent.    And that takes time to (1) ramp up to acquire, and (2) bubble up to the stateside teams where they can be evaluated for purposes of a list like this.    I figure it’ll be at least 5 years before our MiL teams from the top down include our fair share of players we signed internationally.     

They added 1-1 and didn't promote anyone of note.  Would have been a disaster for them not to have improved at all.

[Aristotelian]

Wow, that is insane valuation for Wander. I know he is #1 prospect but is *anyone* that much of a sure thing to be that good? 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They added 1-1 and didn't promote anyone of note.  Would have been a disaster for them not to have improved at all.

Well, sure.    At some point maybe I’ll look at their 2019 list in detail and see what changed.   On a quick look, last year we only had 32 players ranked 35+, this year we have 40.     Stewart and Martin graduated from last year’s list and Jackson was returned to his team.    

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Wow, that is insane valuation for Wander. I know he is #1 prospect but is *anyone* that much of a sure thing to be that good? 

Maybe not, but if he’s as good as expected, he’ll be worth more than the $180 mm in surplus value.    So that’s factored in.   

I can’t wait to see that guy play — against other teams!
 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, sure.    At some point maybe I’ll look at their 2019 list in detail and see what changed.   On a quick look, last year we only had 32 players ranked 35+, this year we have 40.     Stewart and Martin graduated from last year’s list and Jackson was returned to his team.    

Not trying to be insulting but I don't consider Stewart or Martin prospects of note.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not trying to be insulting but I don't consider Stewart or Martin prospects of note.

I don’t disagree.    They were each graded at 40, which equates to $2 mm each in surplus value.    

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t disagree.    They were each graded at 40, which equates to $2 mm each in surplus value.    

I'm also irked (it doesn't take much) by how they manipulated Hays' eligibility.

[Frobby]

Fangraphs only has two teams left to evaluate, the A’s and Cubs.    Right now, the O’s system ranks 15th of the 28 teams they’ve evaluated.    I expect the Cubs will rank well below us.   The A’s will probably be close to us, and where they’re placed will decide if we are at the bottom of the top half or top of the bottom half.    In other words, Fangraphs has us as a middling farm system, prior to the 2020 draft.     

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs only has two teams left to evaluate, the A’s and Cubs.    Right now, the O’s system ranks 15th of the 28 teams they’ve evaluated.    I expect the Cubs will rank well below us.   The A’s will probably be close to us, and where they’re placed will decide if we are at the bottom of the top half or top of the bottom half.    In other words, Fangraphs has us as a middling farm system, prior to the 2020 draft.     

What were we 18 months ago?  Something like 28th, right?

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 4/3/2020 at 7:16 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I'm also irked (it doesn't take much) by how they manipulated Hays' eligibility.

In what way? I know you are generally always of the position that every player should be up as fast as possible or else it's untoward manipulation, but he had a cup of coffee in 2017, had an injury-mired 2018 with associated poor performance, came up later in 2019, then was poised to start the season with the big club in 2020. Without injury (and subsequent performance) concerns he probably comes up at the end of 2018 (rather than 2019), then for good in 2019 (rather than 2020) but that's how things played out. And if the qualm is with him not being up for good in 2018, remember that team wasn't expected to be worst in baseball and he was a third rounder who hadn't played over AA to that point.