Grade the Draft

[Frobby]

OK, the picks are in, so what say you?    I didn’t leave a choice for “I have no idea” — take a stand!     (If that were a choice, of course I’d pick that one.)

It seems to me that through our first four picks most posters were pretty unhappy.   But most people really liked the last two picks, which would not have been possible except for how we structured our earlier picks.     So, was it worth it?

[Cavspider]

In a vacuum, I preferred Martin with the top pick.  But, I'm drinking the coolaid for now and trust that Elias knows what he's doing.  I like he had a plan, trusted his own people, and executed the plan.  For that, his draft gets an A from me.  Nobody will know for years if he was right.  Time will judge this and all drafts.  And while we must view the draft as a whole, I'm probably not alone when I will be watching Martin's progress as against Heston's.  

[CallMeBrooksie]

I say B.

My thought is they traded Martin, a consensus top guy, for Kjerstad and the chance to sign the last two high school picks who are apparently well overslot. 

It's a risky strategy, but I'm excited by the fact that they have the stones to try it. And who knows.. maybe they weren't as in love with Martin as many were? Apparently the Marlins and Royals weren't 

[Roll Tide]

Its just shocking to see to A's and B's!!!

We got the 10 best player at #2 thats a RF...... We got a utility IF and 4th OF. We were at negative pick value in 1-4!

I just don't see how anybody can look on this and like it!

Watch Martin in a few years and you will wish we didn't pass on him

[ArtVanDelay]

C+.  Was a D until the last two picks. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Its just shocking to see to A's and B's!!!

We got the 10 best player at #2 thats a RF...... We got a utility IF and 4th OF. We were at negative pick value in 1-4!

I just don't see how anybody can look on this and like it!

Watch Martin in a few years and you will wish we didn't pass on him

I think much depends on what Kjerstad turns out to be.     You can look at him as the 10th best player in the draft, or you can look at him as a guy who Elias liked much better than that.     

The early reports I read on him suggested slow, lots of swing and miss, light tower power.    I inferred from that he’d be a below average defensive corner OF, too.    But then later reports (including what Elias said) show some very strong swing adjustments and less swing and miss this year (11.5%) and he’s apparently a pretty good defender despite his lack of speed.     If he’s truly the best LH hitter in the draft, as Elias believes (or at least says), this strategy may very well pan out.  Only time will tell.   
 

[sportsfan8703]

D
 

Too much risk with the #2 pick. It’s stupid to hate on an MLB draft so soon. So I’m not hating on the players, or the strategy. It’s a fine strategy if you were picking 3+. 
 

What’s the point of losing so much if we’re not going to draft Martin. 
 

It’s a fine draft strategy, just not with the 2nd pick. 

[MountUrCastle]

C-

At pick #2 they picked anywhere from the 7th to the 12th best prospect available which was a power first low discipline corner outfielder with below average speed and average fielding, instead of a multi-positional bat-first athletic talent who was at both a stats view and eye-test view better than Martin in almost every way except power, to go over-slot later in the draft. When our next pick rolled around, assuming Bitsko was the pick at 30 and all backups were taken, we balked on the overslot for the 30th, drafting a questionable bat all tools no toolbox infielder. We proceeded to do the same thing for the next 2 picks with defense first and questionable hit players. The best part of the draft was the 4th and 5th round where Mayo and Baumler are two really good picks ( I am a big fan of drafting high schoolers and developing them), but unless they can make up the loss of value from the 2nd overall selection and the subsequent picks after I don't know if they are both worth it. 

After sleeping on it I feel as though I want to be cautiously optimistic about this draft. I trust analytics, and I trust Elias. But on face value it feels as though the Orioles passed on a 50% chance or so to draft and develop a top infielder in the league, to take a 20% chance to draft a future above average corner outfielder and some infield/outfield depth to swing on two 18 year olds who could be anything.

[Es4M11]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think much depends on what Kjerstad turns out to be.     You can look at him as the 10th best player in the draft, or you can look at him as a guy who Elias liked much better than that.     

The early reports I read on him suggested slow, lots of swing and miss, light tower power.    I inferred from that he’d be a below average defensive corner OF, too.    But then later reports (including what Elias said) show some very strong swing adjustments and less swing and miss this year, and he’s apparently a pretty good defender despite his lack of speed.     If he’s truly the best LH hitter in the draft, as Elias believes (or at least says), this strategy may very well pan out.  Only time will tell.   
 

I like the Kjerstad pick more and more as I watch more of him. The bat in intriguing, and I really like how he hits to all fields with power. If he gets the strikeouts in check, the bat looks very promising.

Pretty sure most of us would have been very happy with Torkelson. Well Kjerstad's bat might end being as good, and he plays a more valuable position.

[sportsfan8703]

Not drafting Martin protects how much money we “have” to spend.  Sure we’re going to go over slot on a few players, but those negotiations will be so limited with the final number as compared to what Martin was going to want. 
 

I like the idea of using analytics, but was there a really enough data this season to go off of to justify?

Too risky for the #2 pick in the draft. 

[MountUrCastle]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

B. They did execute a plan.

If this is the qualification for a B-level draft than every draft in Orioles and MLB history can be graded as no lesser than a B-.

Quote

Not drafting Martin protects how much money we “have” to spend.  Sure we’re going to go over slot on a few players, but those negotiations will be so limited with the final number as compared to what Martin was going to want. 
 

I like the idea of using analytics, but was there a really enough data this season to go off of to justify?

Too risky for the #2 pick in the draft.

Given that the data pool for this years draft was a tiny bit bigger than an NFL season I am inclined to say no.

Edited June 12, 2020 by MountUrCastle

[wildbillhiccup]

I gave it a D. I can't forgive not drafting Martin with the second pick. Advanced metrics and playing draft day chess are great, but  I'm a big proponent of the Keep It Simple Stupid methodology when you have a pick that high. Draft the best available player, especially when he's a very athletic player. 

[wildbillhiccup]

16 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

I like the Kjerstad pick more and more as I watch more of him. The bat in intriguing, and I really like how he hits to all fields with power. If he gets the strikeouts in check, the bat looks very promising.

Pretty sure most of us would have been very happy with Torkelson. Well Kjerstad's bat might end being as good, and he plays a more valuable position.

So DH is a more valuable position? Because that's where I imagine he'll spend the majority of his career. 

[ChosenOne21]

I was going to say C, but I think Elias and co. deserve enough trust that I went with a B. Obviously Elias knows more about the players than I ever will, but I can't understand passing on a guy like Martin who has a strong chance to be Dustin Pedroia as a super-utility player. I like our 4th and 5th round picks, but I don't like them that much

[FastEddie]

B

Would have been an A if they would have landed Bistko