If Orioles start trading, what are some realistic return expectations?

[Roll Tide]

49 minutes ago, Chuck A said:

I wonder if there is any team that would take on Davis' contract as part of the deal, ie Cobb and Davis for a bp bag of balls.

Not a chance.... Davis’ only way off the roster is DFA.

Cobb probably has moderate value by himself.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Not a chance.... Davis’ only way off the roster is DFA.

Cobb probably has moderate value by himself.

No one else wanted Cobb at the price the O's signed him at, why would anyone give up something to assume the contract now?  I think the O's need to eat some money to even get rid of the contract.  If that wasn't the case I figured he'd be gone by now.

[oriole]

I doubt we will be trading much. Maybe Givens or another bullpen arm but everyone else is young and controllable enough that it’s probably best to just keep them considering none of them will likely get any prospects back that will be any better than what we’ve got right now. If we trade Severino do we really think there’s a chance that a team is willing to give up a piece that will any better than Severino has been over his career? Same goes for any of the offense really. 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No one else wanted Cobb at the price the O's signed him at, why would anyone give up something to assume the contract now?  I think the O's need to eat some money to even get rid of the contract.  If that wasn't the case I figured he'd be gone by now.

Kevin Gausman got 1/$9M, Homer Bailey got 1/$7M, and Julio Teheran got 1/$9M last offseason. Cobb is a bit pricier, but if the O's kick in some money to make Cobb's final year of his contract similar to the going-rate for question-mark pitchers, I think he's trade-able.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

Kevin Gausman got 1/$9M, Homer Bailey got 1/$7M, and Julio Teheran got 1/$9M last offseason. Cobb is a bit pricier, but if the O's kick in some money to make Cobb's final year of his contract similar to the going-rate for question-mark pitchers, I think he's trade-able.

Right, if they kick in some money.  So negative value.

[MountUrCastle]

13 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Nothing....Ask the popular bunch here. Our guys suck and have no value

Our guys suck and have no value..... but also this team can be really surprising and make the playoffs! 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Chuck A said:

I wonder if there is any team that would take on Davis' contract as part of the deal, ie Cobb and Davis for a bp bag of balls.

Between them they're owed about $70M, give or take.  That's roughly 11 or 12 wins.  Cobb is worth a couple wins, Davis minus at least a couple wins.  So you're paying for zero performance but taking on $70M. 

So, sure, you might find a team that would take all that on if the O's kicked in $65M.

Cobb + Davis + $65M for a 24-year-old in the GCL.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Ruzious said:

There's always a market for catchers, and Severino's playing like a 60 game all-star.  Teams not wanting to commit 200 mil to Realmuto (not to mention giving up a package of top young players) might be willing to give up a good prospect for Severino.  

If you were a fan of the Brewers or Angels or something wouldn't you look at Severino as a kind of 2015 Gerardo Parra?  74 OPS+ previously, 168 OPS+ in 18 games.  My assumption is that going forward he's a 85 OPS+ guy with shaky defense.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Nothing....Ask the popular bunch here. Our guys suck and have no value

Put yourself in the role of another team's GM.  Who on the Orioles would you be interested in acquiring for a legitimately good prospect?  And if you're the Orioles, who are you comfortable giving up because the long-term return will likely be better than keeping them?

[bpilktree]

I don’t think you see any real trades this season for the Orioles or anyone else for that matter.  There are to many questions if this season goes the entire way.  It was just two weeks ago everyone was saying they thought season was going to be cancelled.  They seem to be past that for now but it just takes another outbreak late in season.  The Cardinals are playing 7 doubleheader’s but they have time.  They have few big market teams go down there won’t be time to make up games.  I think they will finish season but I am not trading a decent prospect on just 50/50 chance the season is complete.

[Ruzious]

47 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you were a fan of the Brewers or Angels or something wouldn't you look at Severino as a kind of 2015 Gerardo Parra?  74 OPS+ previously, 168 OPS+ in 18 games.  My assumption is that going forward he's a 85 OPS+ guy with shaky defense.

No.  There are some similarities between the 2, but catchers generally develop slower, and Parra was a bit older than Severino is when the O's acquired him.  He was also dramatically deteriorating defensively when the O's got him.  He had previously been a mediocre hitter known for his good fielding.  When a 28/29 year old OFer has a major deterioration in his defense like Parra did, ya gotta figure he's not a player you should go after.  

Is Severino going to continue OPSing 1.1?  Obviously not.  But I think he's developed into a solid starting catcher at 26, and that's more valuable than a 28/29 declining corner OFer.  

  

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

No.  There are some similarities between the 2, but catchers generally develop slower, and Parra was a bit older than Severino is when the O's acquired him.  He was also dramatically deteriorating defensively when the O's got him.  He had previously been a mediocre hitter known for his good fielding.  When a 28/29 year old OFer has a major deterioration in his defense like Parra did, ya gotta figure he's not a player you should go after.  

Is Severino going to continue OPSing 1.1?  Obviously not.  But I think he's developed into a solid starting catcher at 26, and that's more valuable than a 28/29 declining corner OFer.  

  

He is younger.  But catchers don't develop later than anyone else.  Everyone (on average) peaks around 27-28.  Severino's minor league OPS is about .660.  His MLB OPS is .693.  He might be a starting catcher for a while, maybe a long while, but it'll be an upset if his final career OPS approaches .750.  And he's not a very good defensive catcher.

[Ruzious]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

He is younger.  But catchers don't develop later than anyone else.  Everyone peaks around 27-28.  Severino's minor league OPS is about .660.  His MLB OPS is .693.  He might be a starting catcher for a while, maybe a long while, but it'll be an upset if his final career OPS approaches .750.  And he's not a very good defensive catcher.

We've gone around on this before, but I've rarely seen a catcher develop early.

[Ruzious]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

We've gone around on this before, but I've rarely seen a catcher develop early.

And now you're going to list catchers that developed early - without realizing you're only listing HOFers to make your point.  Right?  

[makoman]

9 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

And now you're going to list catchers that developed early - without realizing you're only listing HOFers to make your point.  Right?  

Matt Wieters had his best season at 25 and second best at 26. Shrug, that was just an easy one, I'm not looking for anybody else.