The offseason “elephant in the room”

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do the math.  3.8 is 80% of 4.75.

Read what I wrote, that only applies to arbitration.

[weams]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What company would insure a Mancini contract?

One who was getting a 75 percent of amount insured premium. 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Read what I wrote, that only applies to arbitration.

Got it.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

One who was getting a 75 percent of amount insured premium. 

I guess.

[Aristotelian]

Just now, wildcard said:

No because Stewart has options, offers the team some depth and  is not arbitration eligible.  Nunez has no options and is arbitration eligible.  Its better for the O's to trade Nunez.

For the same reason, we are likely to get nothing back for Nunez. I am not suggesting we keep Nunez, but possibly trading Stewart for a B/C prospect of equivalent value. If we are actually trying to trade for something of value (like a 3B) we would get more for Stewart. We could still try to trade Nunez and have OF/1B/DH of Hays, Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle, Mancini plus Diaz. I really have a hard time seeing DJ fitting in with this team moving forward.  

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Dipper9 said:

Ya know something?  Fans get upset all the time that there is no loyalty in baseball anymore.  (or any sports).  How could Manny not try to work out a long term deal with the O's?  Booooooo Manny.  How could Moose leave and sign with the Yankees?  Booooo Mussina.  

And yet here is someone on the Hangout.  The best of the best.  Starting a thread about releasing a solid player who is coming off cancer treatment.  Well you know what?  Boooooooooooooo Hangout for this even being a thread. 

This is an extremely fair thing to say.

That being said, I wanted Mancini dealt last year.  I like Trey.  He’s a good player who has become the face of the team.

What I don’t like is his redundancy and the idea that while I think he’s good, he’s not as good as 2019.  I don’t want to sign him long term and now we have players ready to contribute that I think can step in and be close to or as good right now.

Put it another way..whether he came off another very good season or dealing with what he is dealing with, I would be looking for a different arrangement in 2021.

Like I said, I’m ultimately fine with him coming back assuming everyone feels good about his health and you make other moves to make sure no one is blocked.

I just don’t feel it’s a slam dunk decision.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, now said:

I think there's another animal in the room as well... the injury factor for all those players competing for spots.

Especially considering most of them have recent or frequent injury histories (besides the unknown of Mancini's readiness or level of play on return).

It's kind of like, you're happy to have at least 7-8 viable candidates for your 5 starting pitching spots.

And this is an excellent point as well.

Diaz, Santander, Stewart and Hays have certainly had their fair share of injury issues.

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What company would insure a Mancini contract?

Do your own research, I'm not your errand boy.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Do your own research, I'm not your errand boy. 

rhe·tor·i·cal

: of, relating to, or concerned with rhetoric

b : employed for rhetorical effect especially : asked merely for effect with no answer expected

[HowAboutThat]

6 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

I'd hope they could sign Mancini to a ~2M guarantee with easy to reach PA incentives to get him back over 5M if he is healthy and playing.

Hays, Mullins, and Santander is my opening day OF next year. Mountcastle and Mancini at 1B/DH. Stewart on the bench. McKenna and Diaz at AAA to start.

I would trade Nunez, DFA Ruiz, and sign another major league infielder. Bring Schoop or Villar back or Jurickson Profar maybe. Move Alberto to 3B.

CF Mullins

1B Mountcastle

RF Santander

DH Mancini

2B Schoop

C Severino

SS Iglesias

3B Alberto

LF Hays

That's a ML lineup and a very strong defensive team. Of course, getting Schoop or Profar isn't likely but I'm having fun over here. And is a 60M ML payroll really too much to ask?

Profar is a dreadful 2B. I don’t want School back either, god bless him. I want a real honest to god stop-gap until Gunnar or Hall or somebody is ready

[SteveA]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not the money as much as it is the roster space.

He is potentially one of the best hitters on our roster (I realize there is a possibility he won't return to form, of course).

He is not the type of guy you worry about "taking up a roster spot".

Certainly not if you still have Davis on the roster.   Even talking about Mancini as a "roster space issue" while Davis still has a spot is utterly absurd.   I mean, Juan Soto is taking up a roster spot on the Nats roster that will ultimately prevent guy #41 from being protected from the Rule 5 Draft.   But no one says Juan Soto is a roster space issue.

I can name 10 guys who would need to be gotten rid of before I would even consider Mancini's roster spot as blocking anyone of remote importance.   And 10 is probably a low number.

[SteveA]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s just not true that he won’t block anyone.  
 

Without knowing what they do, he is 100% blocking someone right now.  Even if you move a few players, he can still block someone, 

To me, this decision is a lot more complicated than people want to make it out to be.

I think Mancini has a higher % chance of producing 1.5+ WAR next year than about 30 of the 40 guys on the roster.   To say HE is blocking someone is ridiculous.   It's just an attempt to be a provacateur by saying something controversial.

[HowAboutThat]

Regarding the “this is bad subject” oh hush. It’s a reasonable question, an honest consideration, and there’s only one answer and I already gave it back on page 1.

No one is going to insure Mancini’s contract for any reasonable price. No one is going to non-tender Trey. He will come to ST and do well or not and we will go from there.

My only hope is that we don’t get the same kind of dishonest BS we got from Buck when he was talking about how great Tillman was, even though we weren’t allowed to watch him pitch, and we had to take Buck’s word for it, and everyone knew he was toast.

If Trey is bad, he’s bad and let’s not sugarcoat it.

[SteveA]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I do think Mancini will be offered and will accept the same salary he was due to make this year before going to arbitration as long as the Orioles reasonably thinks Mancini will be play most of 2020. 

the good news here is the Orioles are not going to be contenders in 2021, so they can afford to run Mancini out there if he's healthy enough and able to play at that major league level once again.

As for at bats, that's where it gets tricky and I'm assuming Davis will not be on the team next year (retire/release/DL'd all year with pothole injuries). 

The Orioles will need to find just about every day at bats for: 

Mancini 1B/RF/DH
Nunez DH/1B
Mountcastle 1B/LF
Stewart DH/RF/LF
Hays CF/LF
Santander RF/LF

That's six guys for 5 positions/DH. Mullins is a 4th outfielder and will need some at bats as well.

That's not including Yusniel Diaz who should be in consideration for everyday at bats at some point in 2021. If you add him in that's seven guys for five positions plus a 4th/5th outfielder in Mullins.

One thing to remember here the defense improves if you go with a Diaz (LF), Hay (CF, Santander (RF) Lineup at some point, but that means Mountcastle/Mancini/Nunez has to share 1B unless you are willing to watch the disaster of nunez trying to play 3B again.

The Orioles need to find a decent defensive 3Bman of the future though Jordan Westburg could be that guy, he's at least 2-3 years away most likely. 

I'd try to move one of Stewart or Nunez for a 3B if possible, but few teams have extra 3Bman's laying around if they do, they aren't trading them for DH types like Nunez or Stewart unless they are significant upgrade to their DH position.

I'd also float trading Pedro Severino if he has gained any value from this year's offensive output if he could bring back a 3B. 

Either way, unless it's certain Mancini will not be back in 2021, I see the orioles agreeing to the same salary he woud make this year and hopefully he'll be back playing. If not, he'll be placed on the 60-day DL and the Orioles would be able to recoup some of his contract back with insurance if he can't play at the major league level again.

Knowing how hard a worker and his heart, I wouldn't bet against Mancini coming back and being the player he was.

 

6 guys for 5 positions is NOT a problem.   Even 7 including Diaz isn't. 

It might not even be a surplus.

What are the chances all 6 or 7 will be healthy at the same time?   And if they are, what are the chances all 6 or 7 will be good enough to be regulars?

[HowAboutThat]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I think Mancini has a higher % chance of producing 1.5+ WAR next year than about 30 of the 40 guys on the roster.   To say HE is blocking someone is ridiculous.   It's just an attempt to be a provacateur by saying something controversial.

At the moment I strongly disagree. Trey has to recover everything. Not just the recovery allows normal people to regain their health, but the over-the-top recovery that returns him to the status of world-class athlete. He has lost everything except his height. He needs to get EVERYTHING back, and back to the level of a professional baseball player. That’s a tall order. Not impossible, and I’m rooting for him, but it’s not a “snap-your-fingers” recovery.