Hays: my favorite current Oriole

[spiritof66]

On 9/16/2021 at 1:18 PM, Ruzious said:

Those are the reasons he likely doesn't have a lot of trade value - likely considerably less than Mullins.  Meanwhile he might end up surpassing Mullins within the next couple of years.  So I'd be more inclined to trade Mullins than Hays.  There's risk involved, but I'm inclined to bet on him.        

This seems to me to be typical of many posts over the last few months opining that guys who've had a good year should be traded because their trade value is high.

I'm no expert, but that doesn't seem to me to be the wrong way to build a good baseball team. The goal should be to collect those productive players, not disperse them. If some team is desperate for a pitcher or center fielder, and offers you two or three very talented players at positions where you have need, take them. And if you can't or don't want to extend a guy who's approaching free agency -- though nobody really knows where that stands right now -- you ought to look to move him before he moves on. Otherwise, guys like Means and Mullins and Hays are keepers. The Orioles have about six or seven of those. Keep them.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, waynebug said:

Hays reminds me of a quarterback facing the Prevent Defense.  The game is lost so the defense gives him meaningless yards, 1st downs and completions. 

His final stats look respectable.  When in fact he contributed little when the game was on the line.   

On a pennant contender he's a platoon outfielder or VERY good 4th outfielder.  But hey, he's young enough to change the equation.  Become a switchhitter ?

I'm just a FAN.  Fan is short for Fanatic.  Meaning my reasoning is highly suspect and open to criticism.

You're forgetting the power of the time clock.  That's the only reason the prevent defense is used in the NFL.  It completely destroys your comparison.   

And just look at last night's game against Philly - who was playing for their playoff lives.  Hays knocking in the lead run and putting himself in scoring position was HUGE - regardless of the fact that the O's ended up losing.    

 

[Ruzious]

3 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

This seems to me to be typical of many posts over the last few months opining that guys who've had a good year should be traded because their trade value is high.

I'm no expert, but that doesn't seem to me to be the wrong way to build a good baseball team. The goal should be to collect those productive players, not disperse them. If some team is desperate for a pitcher or center fielder, and offers you two or three very talented players at positions where you have need, take them. And if you can't or don't want to extend a guy who's approaching free agency -- though nobody really knows where that stands right now -- you ought to look to move him before he moves on. Otherwise, guys like Means and Mullins and Hays are keepers. The Orioles have about six or seven of those. Keep them.

Except that I never said we should trade them (Mullins or Hays).  I said if we were going to trade one, I'd be more inclined to trade Mullins, because he had more trade value, and as I've said - I wouldn't trade Mullins unless we got a great offer for him, and I stand by that, because I want the O's to become much better.        

[Ripken]

1 hour ago, waynebug said:

Hays reminds me of a quarterback facing the Prevent Defense.  The game is lost so the defense gives him meaningless yards, 1st downs and completions. 

His final stats look respectable.  When in fact he contributed little when the game was on the line.   

On a pennant contender he's a platoon outfielder or VERY good 4th outfielder.  But hey, he's young enough to change the equation.  Become a switchhitter ?

I'm just a FAN.  Fan is short for Fanatic.  Meaning my reasoning is highly suspect and open to criticism.

Yeah, because early in the season we were strong contenders.  Riiiiiight.  It could just be that Hays is learning.  Mountcastle has gotten better in the 2nd half, too.  And "become a switchitter"?  Really?

 

[waynebug]

Orioles drafted 4 college outfielders in the first 4 rounds of July's draft.

It tells me they don't believe in all the outfielders they drafted in 2019 and 2020.

And they have little confidence in most outfielders in the organization, majors or minors.

 

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, waynebug said:

Orioles drafted 4 college outfielders in the first 4 rounds of July's draft.

It tells me they don't believe in all the outfielders they drafted in 2019 and 2020.

And they have little confidence in most outfielders in the organization, majors or minors.

 

It tells me that they believe these are very good players and that our organization has the ability to develop them well.   They can sort out who to keep and who to trade for other assets later.  

[waynebug]

I don't think anybody is going to trade you good , controllable young pitching for surpass, excess marginal outfielders.

There's a saying in baseball. "Good, young controllable pitchers are the Coin of the Realm"

 

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, waynebug said:

I don't think anybody is going to trade you good , controllable young pitching for surpass, excess marginal outfielders.

There's a saying in baseball. "Good, young controllable pitchers are the Coin of the Realm"

 

Agree with this.   They don’t come cheaply.   

[Frobby]

Hays hit his 8th homer of September tonight, raising his slash line to .257/.307/.473   

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Hays hit his 8th homer of September tonight, raising his slash line to .257/.307/.473   

Mr. September. In 75 September games in his career, Hays has an .882 OPS. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Mr. September. In 75 September games in his career, Hays has an .882 OPS. 

…and that includes his 2017 jump from AA to the majors when he posted a .555 OPS in 63 PA.   Since then, in 2019-21 his September OPS is .324/.377/.618=.995 in 223 PA.

[RZNJ]

On 9/22/2021 at 8:27 PM, waynebug said:

I don't think anybody is going to trade you good , controllable young pitching for surpass, excess marginal outfielders.

There's a saying in baseball. "Good, young controllable pitchers are the Coin of the Realm"

 

Excess marginal outfielders?  How about good young controllable outfielders for good young controllable pitching?  Delmon Young for Matt Garza.  One example. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Excess marginal outfielders?  How about good young controllable outfielders for good young controllable pitching?  Delmon Young for Matt Garza.  One example. 

I think because development of pitchers is very difficult and it’s hard to keep them healthy, the cost of acquiring a good young controllable pitcher is higher than for a hitter.   Not saying we can’t acquire some, but it will cost us big time when we do.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think because development of pitchers is very difficult and it’s hard to keep them healthy, the cost of acquiring a good young controllable pitcher is higher than for a hitter.   Not saying we can’t acquire some, but it will cost us big time when we do.  

Sure, but pitchers like Zach Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard, and a bunch of others were all traded very early in their careers.  

[Frobby]

Austin Hays finished the season by reaching base in 37 of his final 38 games.   Although he had hits in 34 of the 38 games, he never had three hits in one game any time in that stretch, and he only had two hits in ten of those games.   So maybe you’d call it a prolonged warm streak?

In any event, he finished at 3.2 rWAR, thanks in part to stellar defense as measured by Rdrs, the defensive stat that feeds into rWAR (it is also called Rfield for WAR purposes).    Hays was worth 15 Rdrs.   Rtot (+10) and UZR (+5.7) also liked his defense, but not quite as much.   Statcast had him at 0 OAA - remember, that stat only measures ball-catching and doesn’t factor in throwing.    In the Fangraphs stat called ARM, Hays was 7th among MLB outfielders at +4.4.    His 9 outfield assists were tied for 10th most in MLB.

Offensively, I’d say Hays had a solid though unspectacular season.   He finished at .256/.308/.461, 106 OPS+, 22 HR, 71 RBI.   He hit lefties (.896 OPS) much better than righties this year (.683), and like most of the Orioles, he hit much better at Camden Yards (.852) than on the road (.693).    His hot finish is cause for optimism for next year.    

All in all, Hays was a bright spot for the O’s and I look forward to seeing what the future holds for him.